After starting the season out of the gate with a 12-8 record, the Toronto Blue Jays have hit a rough patch. They’ve fallen back down to earth and are 4-12 in their last 16 games. While opponents outplayed the Blue Jays in some of those games, recently, they’ve let wins slip through their fingers.

Last week was an encouraging sign as the Blue Jays showed signs of life again, staging late-game comebacks in three consecutive games. Last Wednesday, they were trailing 6-3 to the Red Sox in the bottom of the seventh when Anthony Santander hit a game-tying three-run home run. The Jays walked off the Red Sox 7-6.

The next night, the Blue Jays were trailing 2-1 against the Red Sox when Vladimir Guerrero Jr. delivered a clutch go-ahead three-run home run. Toronto won 4-2. Last Friday, the Blue Jays and Guardians were knotted in a 3-3 tie when Nathan Lukes hit a go-ahead two-run single to put the Jays ahead 5-3.

For a team that has struggled mightily to score runs all season long, the Blue Jays showed signs of life. Not only were they hitting with runners in scoring position, they were hitting home runs; something they’ve lacked severely to this date. But those heroics may have been short-lived.

As the Baseball Gods are one to respond, fate struck back in an equal and opposite way. The Blue Jays have blown late-game opportunities in four consecutive games. Last Saturday, it was a 3-1 lead for the Guardians. The next day, it allowed the Guardians to lead 5-3 heading into the ninth inning. And the first two games of this Blue Jays-Angels series were another pair of bullpen meltdowns, blowing a one and a two-run lead, respectively. And when I say “meltdown”, we’re not talking Ryan Pressly’s eight earned run meltdown game from earlier this week, but it was a lead blown, nonetheless.

Let’s put this into context first; compared to the Blue Jays’ bullpen of 2024, this year’s group of relievers is still miles better than last year. Even with their poor performances in the last four consecutive games, the Blue Jays’ bullpen ERA sits at 4.33, compared to 5.23 at this point last year.

At some point, Garcia was going to get lit up, Little would lose control of the strike zone, and Hoffman would look hittable again. Unfortunately, all three of the Blue Jays’ highest leverage relievers are concurrently having their worst stretch of the season.

Some of that may be workload-related, as the Blue Jays have played an unusual number of close games to date. Of their 16 wins, 11 have been by two or fewer runs, which means most of those games have featured at least a few of Garcia, Little and Hoffman, if not all three in the same game, to protect a lead.

But John Schneider can’t pull a Dave Roberts in the 2017 postseason with the Dodgers and run Brandon Morrow out there almost every single game. Six weeks into the season, Toronto’s relievers may have been overexposed, and they’re paying the price for it now.

My criticism has less to do with Schneider and the Blue Jays’ relievers, because they won’t be perfect the entire season. The manager has to use his elite relievers in high-leverage spots, and when you’re constantly walking the tightrope like the Blue Jays have, Schneider has little choice but to go with his best relief pitchers.

It comes back to the issue that’s plagued this team since the start of 2022: the lineup’s inability to score runs. If the Blue Jays’ position players could provide the pitchers with some run support, they wouldn’t have to ride a razor’s edge night after night.

Once again, last night the Blue Jays entered the ninth protecting a two-run lead. It’s a bit of a cushion, but rarely this season have they provided more than enough wiggle room to get the job done. Of their 16 wins, only three have been by four runs or more. Despite plating four runs, it was another night of missed opportunities for the Blue Jays on Wednesday. They went 5 for 13 with runners in scoring position, but they stranded eight runners on base. In recent weeks, getting men on base isn’t the problem; it’s driving them home.

This year, the Blue Jays are averaging 3.53 runs per game, 25th lowest in baseball. In 2024, they averaged 4.14 runs per game, 22nd lowest in baseball. In 2023, the Blue Jays averaged 4.60 runs per game, 15th in baseball. Maybe part of the dip in offense is a lack of a juiced ball, but to me, it shows a bigger wholesale problem with the Blue Jays. This team isn’t built to hit.

Sure, they have some big thumpers at the top of their lineup in Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Anthony Santander. George Springer’s unexpected resurgence has been a tremendous boost to this team. But outside of those three bats, who else is going to drive the bus on offense for this team in 2025?

The front office went out once again this offseason to acquire another glove-first player in Andres Gimenez. As someone three years removed from a 141 OPS+ season, he has some offensive upside, but Gimenez is a glove-first and a bat-second player at this point in his career. That’s another everyday spot in the lineup devoted to defense and not offense.

Rattle through the Blue Jays’ lineup most nights, and you might have upwards of five glove-first players in the lineup. Gimenez, along with Daulton Varsho, Ernie Clement, Alejandro Kirk, Myles Straw and Tyler Heineman. Those are all run prevention players, and anything they provide on offense is a bonus. And while some of those players chipped in with some big hits earlier in the season, a competitive team can’t expect the middle-third to the bottom-third of the lineup of the order to do the heavy lifting over 162 regular-season games.

It’s likely by design by this Blue Jays front office, but this iteration of the team isn’t constructed to outscore opponents. It’s built to prevent runs via elite defense and above-average starting and relief pitching. The danger in employing that philosophy is a team still needs runs to win the game.

What we’re seeing with the 2025 Blue Jays is nothing new. Similar problems that plagued them this season can stem all the way back to the 2023 season, when this organization took a distinct shift into prioritizing defense over offense. While it can be thrilling to watch that model on most nights, it’s proven over the last three years to be an unsustainable model for success in the American League East for this team.

For Blue Jays fans, it’s been disheartening to watch this recent stretch of play, as most have been waiting with bated breath for the lineup to break through and enjoy a lopsided victory for once. But the way this team is structured, that’s not their M.O. anymore.

And unless the personnel changes, it might stay that way for the rest of the season.