With the Winter Meetings kicking off this Sunday in Dallas, superstar free agent Juan Soto appears to be ready to make a final decision. The outfielder – the most coveted name this winter by a long shot – has reportedly started to eliminate teams that are no longer in the running. It appears that he will sign with a team either just before or during the Winter Meetings, which would be the first domino to fall and likely kick off a frenzy of activity following his signing.

“When you’re going through these things, he’s just got a lot of information to meld through,” Boras told reporters Tuesday evening. “We’ve had meetings with a number of franchises. He’s begun the process of eliminating teams and doing things. Juan is a very methodical thinker, so we’ll see, but I don’t think anything is imminent in the near future.”

There are currently five teams that are considered in the front runners category – the New York Mets, New York Mets, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, and the Toronto Blue Jays. Contract proposals have already surpassed $600 million according to inside sources and the terms are expected to be in the double digits, which is understandable for a player who is still just 26 years old. Unlike Shohei Ohtani, who inked a heavily deferred $700 million deal last winter with the Dodgers, Soto’s contract is not expected to have any deferred funds and depending on who you ask, it seems like each of the five teams has a shot to sign the Dominican product.

It’s a storyline that Blue Jays fans have been linked to before – the superstar free agent is interested in playing for Toronto only to spurn the team and sign elsewhere. Some would even say the team was used as a pawn last year – a leverage tactic to milk more money from the Dodgers. Don’t get me wrong, amidst the flurry of negativity that is being directed towards the organization, the Jays’ front office does have a few wins under their belt when it comes to free agency regardless of whether you like it or not. They signed top-tier free agents like George Springer, Kevin Gausman, Hyun Jin Ryu, and more, which is a road that was less travelled by previous general managers for the Jays unless the players were born in Canada or were brought in via trade before extending.

But players like Ohtani and Soto are cut from a different cloth when it comes to talent, hence the heavy price tags. Jays fans are still looking for a positive note after the whole plane gate saga that sucked in a credited BBWAA reporter and a Dodgers insider last winter, so it makes sense why many are even more guarded this time around when it comes to hot stove rumours involving the Blue Jays and Soto. Throw in a distaste for a front office – an ideology that has swept through the Blue Jays fanbase given the lack of postseason success – and there lies even more reasons to be a bit more guarded about the whole situation.

The flames of these ideas get fanned even more by reporters who question why Soto would choose Toronto over other organizations like the Mets and the Yankees – some bring valid points like Toronto’s poignant roster holes and lacklustre farm system – others are just trying to join in on the fun but have a higher strikeout rate than anything. If I see one more article from a reporter (who should know better) talk about whether Soto would want to be paid in Canadian currency or not, I am going to lose my mind (a quick Google search shows that all contracts are in USD regardless if the team is Canadian).

On paper, the organization has the benefit of being able to dish out the most salary if they so choose – it’s one of the perks of being owned by a corporation like Rogers that has billions to play with even outside of baseball. The downside is that the game of baseball is a business and spending has to make sense at the end of the day. Sooner or later, someone has to draw a line in the sand and say ‘no more’, especially when it comes to dishing out hundreds of millions of dollars over the next decade. Reports from across the league say that the Jays are one club that could outbid every other interested team and even have a bit of desperation to show that they can bring Soto to Ontario, which does have some merit considering the Blue Jays were also willing to match the Dodgers offer to Ohtani last year before he decided to stay in California. Atkins is also on the hot seat to keep his job – signing Soto easily quells at least some of that tension.

That being said, it’s the offseason – agents and media are playing a cat-and-mouse game that tries to benefit both sides and each one is hoping they don’t come out looking like a loser when the dust settles. Ultimately, there’s no backbone to a majority of rumours at the end of the day, with reporters fighting for speculation or any tidbit they can get before firing off an ‘Arson Judge’ style media post for recognition and the crown of being first on the confirmation, which we have seen backfire. There really is no such thing as a ‘front-runner’ in free agency – you either sign the player or you don’t. Unless Jeff Passan is tweeting (or X’ing, whatever you call it now) about the deal, it’s likely still a rumour.

Soto is a generational player who could easily transform any team he joins to be a division contender, making the postseason that much more of an achievable feat. Rarely do you see a player have such an aura about them and while baseball is widely considered a team game in numerous aspects, someone like Soto can make a big difference on his own – the guy has produced a +5.0 bWAR in five of the seven seasons he has played in the big leagues and one of those campaigns where he didn’t hit that mark was during the shortened 2020 season. There’s a reason teams are willing to dish out that kind of money to him.

The Blue Jays find themselves in familiar waters this winter but are looking for a different outcome – which has its challenges considering the current outlook of the organization.

The farm system ranks on the wrong side of the scale after recent trades for veteran talent combined with some prospects struggling to pan out while the active roster has some question marks surrounding it as well – mostly about the stability and longevity of the club and its current star players. Those questions will also need to be answered or at least addressed this winter, mostly toward whether the Jays extend Guerrero or Bichette past the 2025 season, and there’s no reason to think that the Jays can’t sign Soto and ink at least one of these stars to a long term deal. It just depends on where Rogers wants to draw their line on spending, with the organization having separate budget plans that revolve around whether they are successful in the Soto sweepstakes or not. Of course, this is easier said than done and it takes two sides to tango on extension talks but that’s on the front office to get the job done.

It’s easy to see why Blue Jays fans aren’t so quick to think Toronto will be successful in their bid for one of the most impactful position players in the game given the past 12 months. There’s even a scenario where the Jays offer the most money and Soto still decides to sign elsewhere – which will undoubtedly send the fanbase into a tailspin of ‘Shatkins’ media posts. It can be exciting to know that the team you root for can sit tall with the other well-known clubs in free agency talks but the shine of the moment is lost if the club comes back empty-handed.

The notion of coming back empty-handed this winter expands outside of Soto as well, as the Jays need to improve multiple areas of the roster regardless of adding just one mega-star or not. Should they swing and miss on the slugger, the club still needs to find a way to improve their team heading into next year if they are serious about contending – coming home empty-handed or with short-term non-needle moving acquisitions similar to last season will have fans tearing down the Ted Rogers statue outside the gates. The bullpen still needs to be upgraded. Another infielder would be a great move to make. A corner outfielder if Soto signs elsewhere. Even just extending Guerrero would bring some faith back to the fanbase, who just wants some stability on the team for the next few years.

Until Soto signs on the dotted line and sits on stage with Boras, the Jays are still in the hunt and have a chance to land one of the game’s biggest stars regardless of whatever someone posts on social media because they have an ‘inside source’. Whether the Blue Jays actually reach the finish line or not remains to be seen but for an organization that is looking for a little bit of positivity after a dismal campaign, they appear to be aggressive out of the gate – which is all fine and dandy unless its all talk and no action and the Jays roll into the 2025 season with even more questions than they had going into the winter. Then the pitchforks will appear and the song and dance of sitting once again in the basement of the AL East will come revolving back around.

An exciting few days lie ahead that could have a major impact on the outlook of this franchise for the foreseeable future.