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Blue Jays: Analyzing Vladimir Guerrero Jr’s struggles at the plate this season
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Photo credit: © Dennis Lee-Imagn Images
Nick Prasad
Sep 8, 2026, 13:00 EDTUpdated: Sep 8, 2026, 12:34 EDT
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One area of concern for the Toronto Blue Jays this season is Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s performance.
The big-money first baseman has been through a season-long drought, and while we really don’t know the reason, it’s important to consider quantitative measures alongside human instinct and fundamentals. After a strong 2025 season and a fantastic postseason, Blue Jays fans are left wondering what has gone wrong.
Let’s take a look at what could be going on.

Comparing Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s 2026 season to his 2025 season

Guerrero Jr.’s 2025 postseason numbers were stellar, slashing .397/.494/.795. In 73 postseason at-bats, Guerrero Jr put up 29 hits, 15 RBIs, eight home runs, 14 walks, and 18 runs. These numbers were very crucial to the Blue Jays’ October run, and his eight home runs were the most for any Blue Jay in any postseason run.
Relative to his $500 million contract, Guerrero Jr.’s regular season numbers in 2025 were not the best. However it appeared somewhat normal compared to not just his current statistics, but his career norms. Guerrero Jr finished 2025 with 172 hits, 23 home runs, 84 RBIs, and 275 total bases. 
What are the differences between 2025 and 2026? Well, he’s hit 15  fewer home runs, 30 fewer RBIs, walked 29 fewer times, has 103 fewer total bases, and has scored 29 fewer runs. With just nine home games remaining this season, Guerrero Jr has still yet to hit a home run this season at the Rogers Centre, which is a statistic alone that makes fans spiral. For context, June 23rd was the latest he’s hit his first Rogers Centre home run in his career prior to 2026.
So what’s really going on with Guerrero Jr? There are thousands of philosophies, but let’s take this from a more analytical viewpoint.

Breaking down what’s happening in the batter’s box

Guerrero Jr.’s Plate approach has been his biggest reason for his struggles this year. It seems that he’s playing a guessing game, similar to a game of roulette. The Blue Jays slugger isn’t getting his pitch as much, therefore takes more anxious, protective hacks. 
Pitchers have found a weak spot for Guerrero Jr and are living off the edges of the plate with breaking pitches, causing the first baseman to chase. This forces Guerrero Jr to either make weak roll-over contact or whiff completely. This season, Guerrero Jr. has expanded his own zone and has been fishing. 
His chase percentage spiked from 21% in 2025 to upwards of 30% this season. His approach is more defensive than aggressive. Guerrero Jr has also changed trajectory this season at the plate; instead of controlling the counts, he now hits from behind, putting more pressure on himself. The right-handed stick would also take advantage of pitcher mistakes; this season he’s rolling over on pitches. 
Guerrero Jr.’s hard-hit percentage decreased from 50.7% in 2025 to 43% presently. Which other metric coincides with this? Barrel percentage; he recorded a  12.2% barrel percentage in 2025, versus 6.7% now. This is a drastic decrease that illustrates his bat not getting into pitches that he normally would take advantage of. 

Physical Reasoning

This diagnosis is hard to catch from the eye, but not terribly difficult to dissect from video. Many people mention his launch angle, saying his swing path is too flat. Numerically, this needs to be configured; visually, it seems like something is making his swing “unprepared”. 
Late with the head of the bat doesn’t necessarily mean bat speed is down, but readiness may be hindered. A legendary slugger, Albert Pujols, explained that Guerrero Jr’s bat seemed to be wrapped around the right side of his body.  This doesn’t allow hand separation, which ultimately causes an issue with bat path.
This could very well be a flaw in the fundamental aspect of Guerrero Jr’s issues. 

The positives and the bounce back

Contact ability from Guerrero Jr has not diminished, in fact that number is slightly better. He currently sits at an 87.1% zone contact rate, along with a 68.3% zone swing rate, which are both better than 2025. 
Guerrero Jr remains aggressive and understands that he won’t get a ton of good pitch options, being who he is. Patience is key in all senses of this issue for the Blue Jays slugger. He currently holds a 32.7% 1st pitch swing rate, higher than his 24.2% in 2025. 
This isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but burning a 1st pitch to wait for something better or for a mistake could be beneficial.  The most positive thing in this situation is Guerrero Jr’s thick skin and bounce back. He still remains positive with a competitive attitude and plays the game hard. He’ll run out ground balls and be aggressive where needed. 
Guerrero Jr. has some time left to turn a corner in September, while hoping to come up big potentially in October if the Blue Jays make it that far.
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