logo
Comparing the 2024 and 2026 Blue Jays
alt
Photo credit: © Denis Poroy-Imagn Images
Ryley Delaney
Jul 21, 2026, 13:00 EDTUpdated: Jul 21, 2026, 13:13 EDT
Comments
Things keep getting worse and worse for the Toronto Blue Jays.
November 1st, 2025 is a day that will go down in infamy. Obviously, the Blue Jays losing the World Series the way that they did was and still is devastating, but it’s been made so much worse by the 2026 Blue Jays.
Throughout the season, it was easy to draw parallels to both the 2024 and 2025 Blue Jays given each team’s respective slow start. Back in late May, around when the 2025 Blue Jays turned it around just a year prior, I wrote an article about whether this year’s team would sink like the 2024 Blue Jays, or swim like the 2025 Blue Jays.
Somehow, the 2026 Blue Jays are even worse than the 2024 Blue Jays. Now, a lot of that has to do with the expectations given how the 2025 season went. Moreover, injuries were an excuse early in the season, just like the 2024 Blue Jays had the excuse of Bo Bichette’s injury-filled season. However, the 2026 Blue Jays are just not a good baseball team.
The reason for the Blue Jays’ struggles in 2024 are pretty clear: They failed to land Shohei Ohtani in free agency, and their pivot was signing Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Then regression from George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, and Bichette (when healthy) ultimately sunk them offensively.
There was no such mistake this past off-season. Kazuma Okamoto has been their best power threat, Dylan Cease has been their best starter, and Tyler Rogers has been nails in the bullpen. All three of their major free agent signings have been great.
Instead, it’s once again the regression of three key players that has put the Blue Jays in this position. After taking a dip in the fountain of youth in 2025, Springer has returned to his 2024-self. Kirk has had a rough year offensively, though he’s been injured for a large chunk of it.
And how can I forget Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s performance so far this season. The first baseman has hit just six home runs over 403 plate appearances, and has yet to hit one at home. His 96 wRC+ is on pace to best the worst of his career, and he’s a big reason why this season is going the way that it is.
Let’s compare the 2026 and 2024 Blue Jays quickly. The 2026 Blue Jays are batting .242/.304/.380 with a 91 wRC+, tied for the third-lowest in Major League Baseball. Their 101 home runs rank tied for fourth-last, which is paired with a staggeringly low 7.4 BB%, second-worst. 
That .380 slugging percentage is fifth worst, and all of this combined has allowed them to score just 398 runs, the fewest in baseball. Unsurprisingly, the Jays have also been awful with runners in scoring position, as their 91 wRC+ ranks tied for fourth-worst in MLB.
Surprisingly, the 2024 Blue Jays’ offence was fine. Not as good as the following season, but not nearly as bad as it has been this season. Overall, they slashed .241/.313/.389, good for a 101 wRC+, which sat middle of the pack..  That said, they hit the fifth-fewest home runs.
After starting the 2026 season well, starting pitching has fallen off a cliff, as their starters are currently rocking a 4.47 ERA, tied for 10th-worst in MLB. Their FIP sits in the middle of the pack, but the Jays currently have two starters with an ERA below 4.00. In 2024, their starting pitching ranked in the middle of the pack, with Bowden Francis being a big part of why.
As for the 2026 Blue Jays’ relievers, their 3.83 ERA ranks as the 11th-best in MLB, with a 3.88 FIP that ranks 10th-best. Relief pitching has been a bright spot for the team, and a big reason for that has been because of Louis Varland.
On top of the regression of Springer, Kirk, and Bichette, another big reason the 2024 Blue Jays season turned out the way it did was because of the bullpen. Jordan Romano, Tim Mayza, and Erik Swanson were three key members of the 2023 bullpen that did oh so well, but all three struggled mightily in 2024. 
Romano’s ERA went from 2.90 in 2023 to 6.59 in 2024, Mayza’s from 1.52 to 6.33, and Swanson’s from 2.97 to 5.03. The latter’s ERA was aided by a strong second half, while both he and Romano also dealt with injuries over the course of the season. Ultimately, the 2024 Blue Jays’ bullpen had a 4.82 ERA and 4.84 FIP, ranking second-worst and worst respectively.
The 2024 and 2026 Blue Jays aren’t a perfect comparison by any means. One team was hampered by awful relief pitching, the other by horrendous at-bats. That said, they’ll likely have the same outcome before the trade deadline, and probably the same outcome at the end of the season.
What’s even worse is that the 2026 Blue Jays are in an even worse place than the 2024 Blue Jays were heading into the trade deadline. The notable expiring free agents, Springer, Daulton Varsho, Kevin Gausman, and Shane Bieber, are all having tough seasons. If all four played 50% as good as last season, the Blue Jays wouldn’t be in this mess.
The Jays will have to answer some tough questions ahead of the August 3rd trade deadline, and even more questions when the season wraps up. It’s now the fourth season of a small-ball plus a strong defence mindset, and while it worked great in 2025, they’ve had three seasons ranging from “okay” to “the 2026 Blue Jays’.
Ryley Delaney is a Nation Network writer for Blue Jays Nation, Oilersnation, and FlamesNation. She can be followed on Twitter @Ryley__Delaney.
Editorials
MORE NEWS. IN YOUR INBOX.
CLICK TO SUBSCRIBE TO OUR WEEKLY NEWSLETTER

Breaking News