The Toronto Blue Jays can’t seem to catch a break right now, and they’ll need to summon something this afternoon to avoid dropping a fifth straight series they’ve had every reason to win.

Game 1 was vintage Blue Jays, chaotic, a little ugly in stretches, but ultimately a 9-7 extra-innings victory in the 10th when Vladimir Guerrero Jr. doubled home the go-ahead run. Game 2 was the opposite. Dylan Cease was magnificent, swirling six strikeouts in six innings, and yet it ended in a no-decision.

Two swinging bunts, a bobbled play at home plate by Brandon Valenzuela, and a William Contreras single were all it took for Milwaukee to walk away with a 2-1 win. Now it’s a rubber match, and the stakes feel bigger than a three-game series in April probably should.

The Blue Jays head into this afternoon sitting at 7-10, ranking in the bottom half of MLB in runs scored and home runs.  Their bats have been the story, not Dylan Cease’s 13.5% walk rate, or Tyler Rogers’ bad luck with grounders, but the inability to string anything together. They managed just one run off Chad Patrick on Wednesday despite making plenty of contact, and mustered just a first-inning run and five hits against the Brewers’ pitching staff combined.

The good news? Today’s matchup is an opportunity for redemption.

Patrick Corbin gets the ball for the Blue Jays today after he signed a one-year, $1 million contract with the Toronto Blue Jays on April 3, and frankly, he’s here because the Blue Jays have essentially run out of options, with Trey Yesavage, José Berríos, Shane Bieber, and Cody Ponce all sidelined. He was never a part of this rotation’s original plans, and everyone knows that.

In his Blue Jays debut against the Twins, Corbin allowed four runs and six hits, including two home runs, over four innings. It wasn’t what he or the Blue Jays had been hoping for in the truest sense. However, the offence bailed him out in a 10-4 win. Last season with the Rangers, Corbin made 30 starts, logging 155.1 innings with a 4.40 ERA, a 19.8% strikeout rate, and a 7.7% walk rate, his best work since 2019. The hope is he can approximate that version here and give the Jays at least five innings of competitive ball to keep the Blue Jays in the game late.

Though there is one concern worth flagging: since 2019, Corbin has allowed 179 home runs in 202 games. The Brewers have some dangerous right-handed bats, and Gary Sánchez in particular is a player to watch. Sánchez is 4-for-11 with a double, a home run, and four RBIs against Corbin in his career. With the righty slugging to a 1.128 OPS in the early going, that’s not a matchup the Jays coaching staff will feel great about.

On the other side, Brandon Sproat has struggled early after a catastrophic start to his Brewers career. Over three appearances (one start) he’s pitched 10.1 innings, to an inflated 10.45 ERA. He was tagged for seven runs in three innings in his only start of the season on March 29th, with these recent struggles carrying an alarming 47.6% hard-hit rate and a 20% walk rate.

That said, Sproat flashed something in relief last weekend. In his last relief appearance, Sproat allowed just one run on one hit in 3.2 innings. Sproat is a 25-year-old with legitimate talent. From late June through the end of 2025 in Triple-A, he posted a 2.44 ERA while striking out 29.9% of opposing hitters. The question is whether that version shows up this afternoon or whether the results that have haunted him at the MLB level persist.

This is a real opportunity for the Blue Jays’ offence to wake up. As a team, the Jays rank 13th in OPS at .693 and 25th in runs scored.  Facing a right-hander with a 10.45 ERA, Toronto’s lefty-heavy lineup with Daulton Varsho, Jesús Sánchez, and Andrés Giménez should be licking their chops.

The series has been a mirror image of both teams’ seasons so far. Explosive one night, shut down the next. Today’s pitching matchup is the softest of the three, which paradoxically makes it the hardest to predict. When two struggling starters face off, ball games can go sideways in a hurry for both sides.

The Blue Jays need this one badly. They still haven’t won a road series this season and are 1-4 away from home. A loss drops them to 7-11, a game deeper in the hole as the calendar turns toward the stretch of May when Yesavage, Berrios, Addison Barger, and George Springer are expected to return. Every win they can steal right now matters.

Toronto Blue Jays – Patrick Corbin: 0-0 record, 9.00 ERA, 4.0 IP, 3 SO, 1 BB

Milwaukee Brewers – Brandon Sproat: 0-1 record, 10.45 ERA, 10.1 IP, 10 SO, 10 BB​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​