Thursday’s game is another important game for the Toronto Blue Jays.

After dropping the first two games in Toronto, the Blue Jays defeated the Seattle Mariners by a score of 13-4 in Game 3. It was as much of a “must-win” game as it could get without it being an elimination game, as only one team in Major League Baseball history has turned a 3-0 deficit into a series win.

With the win, the Blue Jays get a little bit of breathing room entering Game 4 on Thursday, but a win would go a long way in determining how far they go in the playoffs. A win evens up the series and returns home-field advantage in favour of the Blue Jays.

It’s easier said than done, as Max Scherzer is the expected starter for the Blue Jays. In 85 innings pitched this season, the 41-year-old has a 5.19 ERA and 4.99 FIP, with a 22.9 K% and 6.4 BB%. Most of Scherzer’s success this season came in a seven-game stretch, where he gave up 15 earned runs in 43 innings pitched from July 11 until August 19, good enough for a 3.14 ERA.

Since then, it’s been tough sledding for Scherzer, as he’s given up 25 earned runs in his last six starts, good enough for a 9 ERA. In his second-to-most-recent start, he gave up seven earned runs in two-thirds of an inning, which has been a problem all season for Scherzer. In his 17 games this season, Scherzer has a 12.96 ERA in the first inning. However, in innings two through five this season, Scherzer has a 2.58 ERA in 59.1 innings pitched. He should have an opener for this game.

Starting for the Mariners is Luis Castillo. In six starts against the Blue Jays for his career, Castillo has a 4.68 ERA in 32.2 innings pitched, with a 21.1 K%. In his two starts against the Jays in 2025, he has a 7.20 ERA in 10 innings pitched. That said, the last time Castillo started against the Blue Jays in the postseason was in Game 1 of the American League Wild Card Series in 2022. The right-handed pitcher went seven and one-third scoreless innings with five strikeouts.

Moving to the offence, an interesting name is in the lineup, as Isiah Kiner-Falefa bats eighth for the Jays. That may sound like a questionable choice, but Kiner-Falefa is 5-13 against Castillo, with a home run and a double. It’s also worth noting that Anthony Santander’s back is still sore, hence why he isn’t in the lineup.

Addison Barger bats seventh once again, a change made for Wednesday’s game. Barger responded with his first career postseason home run to make it 13-4. George Springer leads off, Nathan Lukes and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. follow him. Alejandro Kirk bats clean up, with Daulton Varsho and Ernie Clement after. Andrés Giménez, who hit the biggest Blue Jays’ home run of the season on Wednesday, bats ninth.

Let’s set up Thursday’s pivotal game!

Toronto Blue Jays – Max Scherzer: 5-5 record, 5.19 ERA, 85 IP, 82 SO, 23 BB
Seattle Mariners – Luis Castillo: 11-8 record, 3.54 ERA, 180.2 IP, 162 SO, 46 BB