All Max Scherzer needs is to record one out in the third inning of his next start to trigger another $1 million incentive in his contract, bringing his overall earnings to $5 million this season.

Signed to a one-year, $3 million deal to return to the Toronto Blue Jays last winter, Scherzer’s contract includes innings-based incentives, starting at an additional $1 million for reaching 65 innings and an extra $1 million for every 10-inning interval after that. Given that the 42-year-old hurler currently sits at 72.2 innings this season, he’s already earned an additional payday thus far — and could be in line for another one next time out.

Scherzer’s next start is slated for Monday’s series opener against the Baltimore Orioles, and he’ll enter that outing just 2.1 innings away from arriving at 75 on the campaign. Considering he’s logged at least five innings in eight of his nine starts since the beginning of August, the odds certainly appear to be in his favour of crossing that threshold.

While it’s still mathematically possible for Scherzer to compile 85 innings this season, triggering another $1 million incentive, he’d need to total 12.1 innings over his final two starts to achieve that feat — if he even makes that second start.

Following Monday’s outing, the future Hall of Famer’s turn wouldn’t come around again until Game 162 (Sep. 27), the club’s regular-season finale versus the Cincinnati Reds. If the Blue Jays have already clinched the final AL wild-card spot before then, they’d likely opt to skip his turn and save him for a potential winner-take-all Game 3 — which he probably wouldn’t be available for if he starts the final game of the season.

This next start will also serve as an opportunity for redemption, as the O’s lineup charged Scherzer with six runs (all earned) on seven hits — both the most he’s surrendered since returning from the injured list in late July — and one walk across five innings, striking out three.

On the topic of strikeouts, it’ll also be the veteran right-hander’s next chance to inch closer to former teammate and longtime rival Justin Verlander for eighth on the all-time list. Entering Monday’s affair, Mad Max needs 11 strikeouts to draw even at 3,554 career punchouts, and 12 to break a tie.

The second half of 2026 has featured quite the resurgence from Scherzer, who owns a 4.26 ERA and 4.04 FIP with a 9.4 per cent strikeout-minus-walk rate (K-BB%) across 10 starts since being activated from the IL. If not for a few unfavourable pitching lines in this span, odds are he’d currently be sporting a sub-four ERA and FIP since his return. It’s been a pleasant surprise to see him turn in a few vintage performances down the stretch.

Between multiple injuries and delayed rehab stints in the first half, there were several moments when it seemed Scherzer might not make it back. Fortunately for the Blue Jays, he’s done more than provide a warm body for their injury-riddled rotation. With Trey Yesavage (expected to return Sunday or Monday) and Shane Bieber both landing on the IL last month, Scherzer has helped stabilize the staff behind ace Dylan Cease and José Soriano.

Based on how well things have gone lately, there are even rumblings that Scherzer may be contemplating a return for a 20th season in 2027.

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