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Looking at what needs to happen for the Blue Jays to miraculously make the playoffs
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Photo credit: © Chris Jones-Imagn Images
Cynthia Ryley Delaney
Sep 22, 2026, 14:00 EDTUpdated: Sep 22, 2026, 08:46 EDT
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It’ll take nothing short of a miracle for the Toronto Blue Jays to make the playoffs.
Following a 4-3 loss at the hands of the Baltimore Orioles on Monday evening, the Blue Jays now sit three and a half games behind the Chicago White Sox for the final wild card spot with just five games to play. Due to the White Sox owning the tiebreaker, the Jays are actually down four and a half games and the White Sox have a game in hand.
Simply put, the cards are stacked against the Blue Jays, and their aspirations to go back to the World Series to right the wrongs of 2025 could end as soon as Tuesday evening. They still aren’t out of it, though. Well, at least on paper.
The Blue Jays’ magic number to be eliminated is two. Meaning that if they lose twice, the Cleveland Guardians and White Sox win twice, or a combination of a Jays’ loss and a win by both teams will see their season end.
Essentially, the Blue Jays have to win their remaining five games to even have a chance at making the playoffs. And even then, they’ll need a ton of help. One of the Guardians or White Sox must go 1-5 over their last six, and that’s assuming that the Blue Jays win the next two against the Orioles and sweep the series against the Cincinnati Reds.
Even if that very unlikely scenario happens, there’s no guarantee that they make it once you throw the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros in the mix. Entering Tuesday’s games, the Rangers lead the American League West thanks to a 78-78 record, a game ahead of the Astros, albeit without the tiebreaker.
The Rangers, however, have the tiebreaker over the Blue Jays, meaning that they are currently two and a half games ahead of the Jays with a game in hand. Their best shot at making the playoffs is winning the division, as they’re two games behind the White Sox if they didn’t have the division lead.
Let’s say the Blue Jays do end up going 5-0, the White Sox go 1-5, and the Astros win the division. All the Rangers need to do to clinch the final wild card spot in this scenario is go 4-2 over their last six games. That’d be an awful way of missing the postseason.
Then there’s the Astros, another wrinkle to the Blue Jays playoff hopes. The two teams split their season series 3-3, meaning the tiebreaker comes down to intra-divisional record. Right now the Blue Jays are 25-25 with two more games against the Orioles. The Astros are 22-24 against the American League West with six more games to play.
If the Jays go 5-0, but the Astros go 5-1, the Astros win the tiebreaker. Assuming the White Sox go 1-5 and the Rangers win the division by going 5-1 or better, the Astros would get the final wild card spot over the Jays.
Then you also have to take into account each team’s schedule. The Jays have two more against the Orioles, then play three against the Reds. In the American League Central, the Guardians face the Boston Red Sox and Kansas City Royals, while the White Sox face the Royals and Colorado Rockies.
On Tuesday, the Rangers begin a three-game series against the New York Mets, finishing the season up with a three-game series against the Minnesota Twins. The Astros play two against the Seattle Mariners, then four against the Athletics. Not really sure what happened there.
A lot of these scenarios deal with “if’s”. But I can pretty confidently say that the Blue Jays aren’t going to make the playoffs. It’s been an unfortunate season and things will need to change this off-season.
Cynthia Ryley Delaney is a Nation Network writer for Blue Jays Nation, DFOEdmonton, and DFOCalgary. She can be followed on Twitter @CynthiaRDelaney.
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