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Examining the Blue Jays’ tiebreaker situation heading in September
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Photo credit: © Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images
Ryley Delaney
Sep 1, 2026, 12:00 EDTUpdated: Sep 1, 2026, 11:41 EDT
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September is a huge month for the Toronto Blue Jays.
The final month of the Major League Baseball regular season pits the team against the Cleveland Guardians, Baltimore Orioles (twice), Detroit Tigers, and Texas Rangers, four teams fighting for a playoff spot. Their other three series are against the Kansas City Royals, Athletics, and Cincinnati Reds.
They have one of the easiest remaining schedules on paper, but baseball is not played on paper. They have to win a large chunk of these games, especially against the teams they’re battling with for one wild card spot. Heading into Tuesday’s series opener against the Guardians, the Blue Jays are a game and a half behind the American League Central team.
Another crucial aspect to this is that tiebreakers are involved. There’s really eight teams fighting for one spot, the Houston Astros (currently leading the AL West), Guardians, Orioles, Rangers, Minnesota Twins, Seattle Mariners, and Tigers.
The first tiebreaker is determined by head-to-head record. If needed, the second tiebreaker is a team’s intradivision record. For context, the Blue Jays are 23-23 against the American League East with just six games to play.
Let’s take a look at where the Blue Jays’ tiebreakers stand.

Tiebreakers still to be won

The Blue Jays have five separate series with four teams in the wild card hunt, a term I use lightly for the Tigers. As for their four other series, they are against teams either tied or ahead of them, the Guardians, Rangers, and Orioles (twice).
Starting with the Tigers, who sit six games behind the final wild card spot, the Blue Jays took two of three against the American League Central team back in mid-May. This coming series is a three-game series from September 14th until September 16th.
The lone way the Tigers can win the tiebreaker is with a sweep. Even if the Tigers take two of three from the Blue Jays, their dismal 13-26 record against AL Central opponents is far worse than the Blue Jays‘ 23-23 record against the AL East.
Speaking of the AL East, all six of the Blue Jays’ remaining games against their division are against the Orioles. They’ll host them for a three-game series from September 11th until September 13th, before travelling to Maryland for a three-game series beginning on September 21st.
The Blue Jays are in a strong spot to win the tiebreaker, as they’ve currently won four of the seven games. Splitting the six games would be enough to earn the tiebreaker, but dropping four would require help from the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees as the Orioles play three games against both teams. As it stands, the Orioles are a half game behind the Guardians for the final wild card spot.
Then we have the Guardians, the team currently occupying the final wild card spot. In late April, the Blue Jays took two of three from the American League Central team, meaning a series victory gives them the tiebreaker and moves them to a half game behind the Guardians at the very least.
If the Guardians take two of three, things get a bit tricky as they have a 20-19 record against the AL Central with 13 more games to play. Even if the Blue Jays win out, all the Guardians need to do is 10-3, something they’re capable of doing with strong play in a weak division. A series loss also drops the Jays to either two and a half games back or four and a half games back if it’s a sweep.
This tiebreaker only matters if the Rangers take control of top spot of the American League Central. They currently sit two games back of the Astros for the spot. 
If they were to overtake their Texas-based rival, the Blue Jays and Astros split the six games they played, meaning the second tiebreaker would need to come into play. Right now, the Astros are 22-24 against the AL West with six to go, compared to the Blue Jays’ 23-23 record against the AL East with also six games to go.

Tiebreakers lost

The Blue Jays won the first game they played against the Astros at home to crawl back to .500, the last time they had a .500 record. However, they fell in the final two, before being swept in a four-game series against the Rangers.
That means whatever happens in the Blue Jays’ upcoming series against the Rangers from September 18th-September 20th, there’s nothing that the Blue Jays can do to win the tiebreaker.
However, this is still a crucial series for the Blue Jays to win as the two teams are a game and a half behind the Guardians for the final wild card spot. There’s no telling what their records will look like by that time, but a series sweep could be crucial to either making up ground or gaining separation.
The Blue Jays have also lost the season series to the Twins, as they were the first team to play twice. They dropped two of three in mid-April, then split the four-game series in late-April/early-May for a 3-4 record. Thankfully, the Blue Jays have a two game cushion over the Twins, who are in turn, three and half games behind the Guardians. That said, they do have a relatively easy schedule to end the season.

Tiebreaker that was won

The lone tiebreaker that the Blue Jays have won was done on Sunday. With a series sweep of the Mariners in their most recent series, the Blue Jays won the season series 4-2. But it’s also worth noting that the Mariners have slid to five and half games behind the Guardians for the wild card spot, so they’ve almost become a non-factor.
Ryley Delaney is a Nation Network writer for Blue Jays Nation, DFOEdmonton, and DFOCalgary. She can be followed on Twitter @Ryley__Delaney.
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