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Looking at Canada’s pathway to clinch a knockout stage berth and potential quarterfinal opponents
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Photo credit: © Rhona Wise-Imagn Images
Ryley Delaney
Mar 11, 2026, 11:00 EDTUpdated: Mar 11, 2026, 09:13 EDT
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Canada plays their most important game in World Baseball Classic history on Wednesday.
The first World Baseball Classic was in 2006, and despite a victory over the United States, Canada was eliminated in the group stage as they lost out on a tiebreaker. There was a different format in 2009, with Canada failing to repeat their 2006 upset, falling 6-5 to America, then 6-2 to Italy.
They earned automatic qualification to the 2017 World Baseball Classic thanks to their performance in 2013, defeating Mexico 10-3, but ultimately didn’t make it to the knockout stages. Then, they went winless in the 2017 WBC, falling to the Dominican Republic, United States, and Colombia. However, then Toronto Blue Jay Marcus Stroman was the tournament MVP, so that was cool.
And finally, the 2023 WBC saw Canada go 2-2, defeating Great Britain 18-8 and Colombia 5-0, but they failed to pick up a big win against the better teams, falling 12-1 to the USA and 10-3 to Mexico.
So far in this tournament, they’ve actually gotten the big win that they’ve missed for the past few tournaments, defeating Puerto Rico 3-2 on Tuesday. However, they fell 4-3 to Panama, meaning that they still have something to play for entering their final game on Wednesday.
With a 2-1 record, Canada will take on Cuba for the right to make their first knockout stage. It’s pretty easy to say that the game is the biggest in Canada’s WBC history, because either they win and finish first in the group, or they lose and go home. There will be no tiebreaker that’ll come in to play, as the winner moves to 3-1, and the loser moves to 2-2.
Looking at who they would play in the knockout stage is putting the cart before the horse a bit here, as Cuba is a strong team. That said, their opponent, the runner up in Pool B, is anyone’s best guess. No team from Pool B has clinched a spot in the knockout stages thanks to Italy’s upset over the United States on Tuesday.
If Italy defeats Mexico and Canada beats Cuba, Canada will play the United States. That’s the simplest pathway, because if Mexico defeats Italy, tiebreakers come into play. If Mexico scores six or more runs in a win, they and the USA move on to the knockout stages. Alternatively, if Mexico scores four or fewer runs in a victory, they and Italy move on to the knockout stages. Finally, if Mexico scores exactly five runs in a win, other tiebreakers come into play.
Realistically, Canada could play any of the three teams if they defeat Cuba. Add in the fact that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Dominican Republic takes on Andrés Giménez and Venezuela to determine who finishes first in Pool D, and you have a very exciting final day of the World Baseball Classic group stage.
Ryley Delaney is a Nation Network writer for Blue Jays Nation, Oilersnation, and FlamesNation. She can be followed on Twitter @Ryley__Delaney.

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