The Blue Jays have done the improbable when they clinched the AL East on the last day of the 2025 season. Now, they have more hills to climb as they are slated to face the formidable New York Yankees in the ALDS. As the New York Yankees successfully and literally crushed the Boston Red Sox’s dreams of another incredible playoff run, the Blue Jays are left with no choice but to win their way out.

So far in the playoffs this year, the message was clear: what the teams did during the regular season doesn’t carry much weight in the playoffs.

The Cleveland Guardians had the most inspiring Cinderella story during the tail end of the regular season by outperforming the Detroit Tigers to win the AL Central down the stretch. The Boston Red Sox had a head-to-head record of 9-4 in the 2025 season against the New York Yankees. None of this ended up meaning that much when the Tigers took two of three games at Progressive Field and the Yankees successfully overpowered the depleted Red Sox roster in intense AL Wild Card faceoffs.

Randomness prevails in the playoff stage. Just look at how the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks made it all the way to the World Series in 2023. The Diamondbacks somehow took away the momentum from the Milwaukee Brewers by effectively taking advantage of former Cy Young-winning starting pitcher Corbin Burnes, and the Rangers crushed the Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles without having to break a sweat. There was also a time when the San Diego Padres eliminated the Los Angeles Dodgers to face the Philadelphia Phillies in the NLCS, despite the Dodgers’ astounding regular-season record with more than 100 wins.

The Blue Jays amassed an 8-5 record against the Yankees this year, but that isn’t a guarantee that this will translate to when the teams face off one another in the ALDS. That, unfortunately, means that the Blue Jays’ four-game series sweep against the Yankees doesn’t necessarily mean Toronto will always find ways to dominate New York. In fact, the Blue Jays lost a series in the Bronx in September, solidifying New York’s hot streak.

The biggest challenge for the Blue Jays in this ALDS is finding ways to translate their regular-season success against the Yankees.

To do that, Toronto will have to relentlessly torment every pitcher on the Yankees’ roster, especially their ace starters like Max Fried and Carlos Rodón. The team will also have to put more balls in play while preventing runs through pitching and solid defence. The Yankees have the ultimate power advantage here. For every defensive and pitching woe they have, they will hit home runs to bury their mistakes. That very method has helped them come close to clinching the AL East and beat the Red Sox in the Wild Card series.

But the Yankees aren’t infallible. They may have enough power to overpower any opponents, but their identity hasn’t largely changed: a team that isn’t quite built on the fundamentals.

Ryan McMahon and Jose Callabero are supposed to bring up the defensive metrics, but the fact is that a couple of players can’t improve all levels of defence on a team. The Los Angeles Dodgers won the 2024 World Series because they knew putting the balls in play would unravel the Yankees more or less, and that’s exactly what happened. That’s the strategy the Blue Jays should implement to present more ordeal to the Yankees.

The odds aren’t necessarily stacked against the Blue Jays, but this could shake up to be a more difficult series than the ALCS (should the Jays advance). However, in this competitive and chaotic playoff race, more people are betting against the Blue Jays and are counting on the Yankees to take the ALDS. No one is giving any benefit of the doubt to Toronto because of its playoff records since 2016, along with the team’s lack of power. Even though the Blue Jays have a higher seed in this playoff stage, they are still the underdog that everyone is counting out. The road to the playoffs hasn’t been easy for the Blue Jays, and winning a playoff game will be the first hurdle they will have to conquer before dreaming of winning the ALDS.

The Blue Jays have an agonizing memory of getting swept by the Tampa Bay Rays, Seattle Mariners and Minnesota Twins since 2020. This is the hard-earned chance for them to atone for their past gaffes. Proving everyone wrong has been the name of the game for the Blue Jays in 162 games, and they have to replicate that in this high-pressure division series.

The road to the World Series will be difficult, but if the Blue Jays can take advantage of their home-field advantage in the first two games of the ALDS, their path will become slightly easier, at minimum. Toronto has a 54-27 record at home this season, and with the ALDS conveniently taking place at home, the Blue Jays will have to make the most if they want a chance to prove people wrong again.

There’s a lot at stake for the Blue Jays in this tough five-game series, with a lot on the line. That’s their best shot at giving themselves a chance at winning it all.