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Unable to stop the bleeding, Blue Jays approaching uncomfortable trade deadline decisions
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Photo credit: Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images
Thomas Hall
Jul 20, 2026, 23:00 EDTUpdated: Jul 20, 2026, 23:16 EDT
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TORONTO — Two weeks from now, decision day will officially arrive in the form of the 2026 trade deadline. At this rate, though, it may only take the rest of this week for the Blue Jays’ grim post-season fate to come into focus.
This team hasn’t done itself any favours since returning from the All-Star break. They lost two of three in frustrating fashion against the Chicago White Sox over the weekend, and despite having an opportunity to take advantage of a reeling Tampa Bay Rays club, losers of five straight entering Monday’s series opener, they delivered yet another dud in a 7-1 loss.
The franchise’s playoff odds began the day at less than 15 per cent, according to FanGraphs, and continue to trend in the wrong direction. Because the American League race remains wide open, they’re still technically alive. However, they sure have an interesting way of showing it.
After mustering just one run off Nick Martinez and the Rays bullpen on Monday, this Blue Jays offence has now been held to a pair of runs over the last 30 innings — the seventh inning onward from Friday’s 12-4 defeat to the White Sox. Amidst their latest clunker, they managed eight hits — except they were all singles, compared to Tampa Bay’s six extra-base hits, which included three home runs.
“You look up and it’s eight singles. It’s tough to generate some offence that way,” manager John Schneider said post-game.
The lack of power up and down the lineup has been a point of emphasis all season long, minus Kazuma Okamoto’s contributions — he leads the team with 22 home runs and a .450 SLG — of course. But the offence hasn’t been their only downfall. Poorly executed fundamentals, both in the field and on the bases, have also hurt them. Being without a consistent fifth starter has, too.
All this is to say, with only 62 games left to play, and the Blue Jays now a season-low eight games below .500 for the first time, they’re inching closer and closer to being forced into some pretty uncomfortable trade-deadline decisions with this roster.
“It’s on us. It’s not the coaches. It’s not anybody else,” Cease said, after allowing five runs (three earned) across six innings. “We’re just not playing up to our potential right now. So it’s frustrating, but we have each other’s backs, and we’re going to keep fighting.”
Normally, with a disappointing product like this, the gut reaction would be to label them as sellers. And, honestly, we may ultimately end up there. For general manager Ross Atkins, however, it likely isn’t that simple.
It isn’t as black-and-white as, “should the Blue Jays sell or buy ahead of the Aug. 3 trade deadline?”
For some teams, sure, that probably paints the picture perfectly. Not for this organization, though, whose Competitive Balance Tax payroll of approximately $319 million per RosterResource sits fifth-highest in Major League Baseball — behind only the Phillies ($321 million), Yankees ($334 million), Mets ($367 million) and the sport’s super-spending Dodgers ($407 million).
With that much invested into this group, a traditional sell-off likely isn’t in the cards. What might be, however, is a creative approach of buying and selling. But whether that scale teeters more to one side or the other will depend on what happens between now and Aug. 3.
“These guys all know what the standings are,” Schneider explained. “They all know who we’re playing tomorrow, and we all expect that we’d be in a different position right now, but there’s nothing you can do about what’s already been done.”
Barring a turnaround over the next three games versus Tampa Bay, plus three each against Boston, Washington and St. Louis, there’ll certainly be pieces sold, likely starting with pending free agents — a group including Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Daulton Varsho, George Springer and Patrick Corbin.
Beyond that, the rest of the roster is either signed for multiple seasons after 2026 or under club control through ’27 or longer. So, chances are that’ll probably be the extent of Toronto’s sell-off, if/when it begins.
As for buying, controllable starting pitching will be Atkins’ top priority. Even if Gausman and Bieber aren’t moved, they’re both headed to free agency this fall. Due to a lack of MLB-calibre depth to backfill their rotation spots, that’d leave the Blue Jays extremely thin after Cease, Trey Yesavage and a fully recovered Cody Ponce heading into next season.
Major league starters with control, of course, are always the hardest — and more expensive — to acquire. But, for the right price, they’re often worth the risk. One way or another, though, it’d be somewhat shocking if the front office doesn’t come away with a starter or two after the deadline passes.
They have other needs, too, like another high-leverage reliever or a right-handed-hitting outfielder, for example. Those are typically the pieces contenders target when they’re stocking up for a post-season push. At the moment, that isn’t where this team is trending.
Mathematically, the Blue Jays are only a Red Sox-esque winning streak away from climbing above the fringes of the AL wild-card race and into a post-season spot. But time isn’t on their side, and the road isn’t getting any easier.
“We got an opportunity for 14 days to play better than we have,” said Schneider.

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