Up Next: Rays come to town as homestand continues
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Photo credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
Chris Georges
Jul 23, 2024, 08:00 EDTUpdated: Jul 22, 2024, 23:52 EDT
The Tampa Bay Rays (50-50) visit Rogers Centre for a three-game set as the Blue Jays’ 9-game home stand continues tonight. The AL East rivals have been uncharacteristically mediocre this year after finishing at least ten games over .500 for the last six seasons. The Rays are five games back of the third Wild Card spot as the trade deadline quickly approaches.

Nuts and Bolts

Tuesday, July 23rd, 7:07 EST: TBD vs Jose Berrios (8-7, 4.01 ERA)
Wednesday, July 24th, 7:07 EST: Zach Eflin (5-7, 4.14 ERA) vs Yariel Rodriguez (1-3, 3.78 ERA)
Thursday, July 25th, 3:07 EST: Taj Bradley (5-4, 2.63 ERA) vs Chris Bassitt (8-8, 3.71 ERA)

Starting Pitching

The Rays rank 22nd in the Major Leagues in pitching ERA, but their starters have fared a bit better than their bullpen (4.11 ERA, 14th). Veteran starter Zach Eflin has taken a bit of a step back in his second full season as a Ray, thanks in part to his strikeout rate being way down from what it was a year ago (7.16 K/9 vs 9.42 in 2023). However, his 1.17 WHIP could suggest that better days are ahead for the righthander.
Tampa’s best overall starting pitcher has been Thursday’s starter Taj Bradley, who missed the first month and a half of the year with an injury. The former top prospect has broke out in his second full season in the Major Leagues, spinning a 2.63 ERA and 1.05 WHIP while punching out 90 batters in 75.1 innings.
Tuesday’s starter remains unclear after the team was forced to place Ryan Pepiot on the injured list after he developed an infection in his leg over the All-Star break. Pepiot has been excellent this year after coming over from the Dodgers in the offseason blockbuster involving Tyler Glasnow. The righthander has engineered a 3.92 ERA and 1.05 WHIP with an opposing batting average of just .200.

Bullpen

The bullpen has been a big letdown for the Rays, as their relief core ranks 26th in the Major Leagues with a collective 4.42 ERA. One bright spot for the team has been Jason Adam, who leads the club in games pitched (44), ERA (2.25) and WHIP (0.86). Predominately a one-inning guy, Adam has been used mostly as a set-up man this year, converting four of seven save opportunities.
Pete Fairbanks has been the team’s primary closer in 2024, converting 18 of 20 opportunities but having some blow-up innings along the way. The former Missouri Tiger has struggled with walks at times over his six seasons, with this season being no exception. However, the lack of strikeouts has been the most concerning thing for the 6’6″ righthander. Fairbanks has never finished a season with a K/9 less than 11.00 (last year finishing at 13.50), yet he has only mustered 8.57 K/9 this season.
The rest of the bullpen has been a mostly disappointing mix of arms, with none of them making much of an impact. Righthander Shawn Armstrong has been particularly generous to offenses on the mound, posting a 6.49 ERA and 1.73 WHIP through 31 games.

Hitting

The Rays’ offence has been lacklustre this season, ranking 25th in the Major Leagues with a .684 team OPS.
Hitters that the team was hoping to rely on like Yandy Diaz (.725) and Randy Arozorena (.708) have been mediocre this year, which has really hurt their overall lineup. However, both Diaz and Arozorena have hit much better over the last month, a trend that should continue going forward.
Shortstop Jose Caballero (.674) hasn’t been great with the bat, but it’s worth mentioning that his 25 stolen bases rank third in the Major Leagues behind Elly De Le Cruz (49) and Brice Turang (30). The team has also seen a mini breakout from third basemen Isaac Parades, who has led the team in most offensive categories including OPS (.802) and home runs (16). Another player worth watching this series will be Brandon Lowe, who owns a .938 OPS and five home runs over the last 17 games.
It remains to be seen when the team will call up top prospect Junior Caminero, who has recently returned from injury to join Triple-A Durham. The Dominican phenom has an .802 OPS in 36 games this season, and would likely provide a big offensive spark for the team down the stretch once he establishes that his injury is behind him.

Final Word

The Rays have been the epitome of mediocrity in 2024, yet only sit five games back of Kansas City for the third and final AL Wild Card spot. It wouldn’t be all that surprising to see the team finish strong and make it to the dance considering their strong track record. As for the Jays, there may not be anything they can do this week against Tampa that will provide enough optimism for them not to be trade deadline sellers by the end of the month.