<p>The Max Scherzer era has officially begun with the Toronto Blue Jays. </p>
<p>After signing a one-year deal worth $15.5 million over the off-season, Scherzer made his highly-anticipated Grapefruit League debut on Tuesday against the St. Louis Cardinals, and the three-time Cy Young winner made quite the first impression, striking out four across two innings of one-run ball.</p>
<p>The 40-year-old righty was brilliant in his first exhibition outing as a Blue Jay, painting his fastball &#8212; which touched 94 m.p.h., a feat he only accomplished 17 times in 2024 &#8212; on the corners and fooling Cardinals hitters with his still-devastating slider. Though he primarily used his four-seamer, throwing it half the time, he displayed his entire five-pitch arsenal and finished with eight whiffs on 16 swings, earning a 50-per-cent clip.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p dir="ltr" lang="en">What a first impression 👀</p>
<p>Scherzer’s <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/SpringTraining?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#SpringTraining</a> debut: 2 IP, FOUR Ks! <a href="https://t.co/D7POAN8TFu">pic.twitter.com/D7POAN8TFu</a></p>
<p>— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) <a href="https://twitter.com/BlueJays/status/1894460956542894188?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 25, 2025</a></p></blockquote>
<p>Having Scherzer look that sharp this early in camp is extremely encouraging as he embarks on his 18th major league season. And it&#8217;s just as important that he came out of his debut as healthy as he was heading into it. All that said, there&#8217;s still the burning question regarding what his expectations should be this season.</p>
<p>Coming off his injury-plagued 2024 campaign that only included nine starts, it&#8217;s difficult to know what to plan for, especially at this stage of what will be a Hall-of-Fame career.</p>
<p>In the nine games Scherzer did make last season, he looked like himself. He wasn&#8217;t the superstar pitcher who&#8217;s been an All-Star eight times, including seven straight selections from 2013-19. But an effective big-league starter capable of making an impact at the back end of a rotation.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s precisely what the Blue Jays need from him in &#8217;25. However, since there are many variations of what a back-of-the-rotation starter can look like, we still probably need to dig deeper. But let&#8217;s not get ahead of ourselves, either.</p>
<p>Let&#8217;s keep it simple and craft realistic expectations for Scherzer ahead of his inaugural campaign in Toronto. To do that, we must first examine his recent track record.</p>
<h2>Past Performances</h2>
<p>Ok, so let&#8217;s break down Scherzer&#8217;s nine starts from a year ago.</p>
<p>The former Texas Ranger missed all of spring training while recovering from off-season back surgery and was further delayed by a thumb injury and nerve issues, causing him to play catch-up leading up to his late-June return. But he was never 100 per cent built up, outlining the importance of keeping him healthy this spring.</p>
<p>In typical Max Scherzer fashion, though, he found a way to overcome those hurdles &#8212; at least in the short term. He completed at least five innings across his first four starts of the 2024 campaign, pitching into the seventh during those last two, earning a respectable 3.09 ERA and 4.32 FIP with 17 strikeouts in 23.1 innings over that span.</p>
<p>Scherzer&#8217;s next two starts weren&#8217;t nearly as impressive, as he delivered consecutive short outings before bouncing back during a get-right matchup versus the 121-loss Chicago White Sox on July 25, where he punched out nine while allowing just one run on three hits and a walk across six frames.</p>
<p>But then the injuries began to set in once again.</p>
<p>The 6-foot-3 veteran only lasted four innings his next time out and landed on the IL soon after due to shoulder fatigue, causing him to miss over a month prior to his return in September. It was short-lived, though, as he only made one start before a hamstring strain landed him back on the mend for the remainder of the season.</p>
<p>In the end, Scherzer finished with a 3.95 ERA, 3.86 xERA, 4.18 FIP and a 16.9 per cent strikeout-to-walk rate difference (K-BB%) during his final year in Texas, worth just over half a win per fWAR &#8212; down from his 2.2 rating in 2023.</p>
<p>Now, let&#8217;s examine his most recent healthy season &#8212; the &#8217;23 campaign, which he split between the New York Mets and Rangers.</p>
<p>Scherzer&#8217;s final year in Queens was mostly up and down, resulting in an underwhelming 4.01 ERA and 4.70 FIP over 19 starts before being traded to the eventual World Series champions that season. He appeared rejuvenated upon arriving, impressing to the tune of a 3.20 ERA and 3.41 FIP in eight post-trade starts en route to winning his second championship title.</p>
<p>But that ride to the post-season wasn&#8217;t without a few bumps along the way, including two starts where he failed to complete four innings of work down the stretch. However, it was clear he wasn&#8217;t close to 100 per cent, with back and neck issues contributing to his less-than-impressive playoff performance that featured as many runs allowed (seven) as strikeouts recorded in three outings.</p>
<p>To his credit, Scherzer has fought off Father Time more effectively than most pitchers of his generation. He remained a front-line starter despite being well into his mid-30s, serving as a five and four-win pitcher in 2021 and &#8217;22, respectively, per fWAR. Now that he&#8217;s 40, it&#8217;s understandable that he isn&#8217;t that same elite-level pitcher anymore.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s true of the right-hander&#8217;s results and the quality of his pitch repertoire. His fastball velocity, in particular, despite the encouraging bump he displayed Tuesday, has gradually declined over the past several seasons and was a major issue last year.</p>
<figure id="attachment_83174" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-83174" style="width: 2560px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="size-full wp-image-83174" src="https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2025/02/chart.jpeg" alt="" width="2560" height="1440" srcset="https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2025/02/chart.jpeg 2560w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2025/02/chart-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2025/02/chart-1024x576.jpeg 1024w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2025/02/chart-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2025/02/chart-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2025/02/chart-2048x1152.jpeg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px" /><figcaption id="caption-attachment-83174" class="wp-caption-text">Source: <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/max-scherzer-453286?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Baseball Savant</a></figcaption></figure>
<p>From an overall perspective, Scherzer&#8217;s underlying pitch qualities fully support the notion of his declining performance in recent years. It has been a steady downward trend, which began well before his injury-plagued 2024 campaign.</p>
<p>Dating back as far as the pandemic-shortened &#8217;20 season, the first season we have Stuff+ tracking for, we can see just how far the future Hall-of-Fame pitcher&#8217;s arsenal has fallen in the years since, plummeting to as low as league average during last season&#8217;s limited sample size.</p>
<table style="border-collapse: collapse;width: 100%" border="1">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 50%"></td>
<td style="width: 50%;text-align: center"><strong>Stuff+</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 50%;text-align: center">2020</td>
<td style="width: 50%;text-align: center">111</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 50%;text-align: center">2021</td>
<td style="width: 50%;text-align: center">109</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 50%;text-align: center">2022</td>
<td style="width: 50%;text-align: center">107</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 50%;text-align: center">2023</td>
<td style="width: 50%;text-align: center">105</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 50%;text-align: center">2024</td>
<td style="width: 50%;text-align: center">100</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>And four of Scherzer&#8217;s five pitches have also displayed a similar trend over the last five seasons, according to Stuff+.</p>
<table style="border-collapse: collapse;width: 100%" border="1">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.6667%"></td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center"><strong>Four-Seamer</strong></td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center"><strong>Slider</strong></td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center"><strong>Cutter</strong></td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center"><strong>Curveball</strong></td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center"><strong>Changeup</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">2020</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">115</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">114</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">114</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">98</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">99</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">2021</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">114</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">113</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">105</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">99</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">96</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">2022</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">108</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">112</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">111</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">100</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">99</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">2023</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">106</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">109</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">110</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">101</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">95</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">2024</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">101</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">101</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">105</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">98</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">93</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Scherzer&#8217;s days as a front-line starter are long gone. That&#8217;s blatantly evident and to be expected, given the current stage of his career. However, his results from the last two seasons and pitch data from the previous five are sufficient evidence to suggest he likely has enough gas in the tank for at least one more decently strong year.</p>
<p>Even if he&#8217;s half as valuable as he was in 2021 and &#8217;22, coming in around where he was in &#8217;23, that&#8217;ll still be incredibly impactful for <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=y&amp;type=8&amp;month=0&amp;ind=0&amp;team=0%2Cts&amp;stats=sta&amp;startdate=&amp;enddate=&amp;season1=2023&amp;season=2023" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a Blue Jays rotation that ranked middle-of-the-pack in fWAR (10.6) last season</a> after placing sixth two years ago.</p>
<h2>2025 Projections</h2>
<p>To help support that notion, let&#8217;s dive into Scherzer&#8217;s player projections for the upcoming season.</p>
<p>Admittedly, projecting his 2025 results is complicated because of the time he missed last season, meaning the best practice would be to take his models with a grain of salt &#8212; as you should with any performance-based projection. They can still serve a purpose, though.</p>
<p>If nothing else, they&#8217;ll provide somewhat of a baseline prediction for his production with the Blue Jays, which, if it falls in the range of his projections from the three models most used from FanGraphs, they&#8217;ll happily take.</p>
<table style="border-collapse: collapse;width: 100%" border="1">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.6667%"></td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center"><strong>IP</strong></td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center"><strong>ERA</strong></td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center"><strong>FIP</strong></td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center"><strong>K-BB%</strong></td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center"><strong>fWAR</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">FanGraphs Depth Charts</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">122</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">3.76</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">3.86</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">19.4%</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">1.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">Steamer</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">124</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">3.91</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">3.91</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">19.4%</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">2.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">ZiPS</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">108</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">3.61</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">3.80</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">19.3%</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">1.7</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>All three models agree that Scherzer has a pretty strong chance of producing a sub-four ERA in 2025, continuing his streak from the previous two seasons. They also believe his odds of receiving a bump in swing-and-miss are fairly high. Returning to his peak of a strikeout rate between 30-35 per cent probably isn&#8217;t likely. But, his positive regression could involve finishing closer to his 28-per-cent clip from two years ago rather than last season&#8217;s 22.6-per-cent figure.</p>
<p>An aspect that&#8217;s difficult to project is the veteran&#8217;s health and availability, and rightly so. However, all three predict he&#8217;ll be worth a touch below his &#8217;23 value of 2.2 fWAR. If not for his injuries last season, he likely would&#8217;ve accounted for similar value during his age-39 campaign.</p>
<p>Considering most industry experts value one win above replacement at approximately $10 million, receiving two for the price of $15.5 million would present quite the bargain for Toronto.</p>
<h2>Final Verdict</h2>
<p>In an ideal world, the Blue Jays probably have Scherzer make between 20-25 starts this season, affording them the ability to effectively manage his workload during the regular season to ensure he isn&#8217;t run down if this team remains competitive by September and ultimately secures a playoff berth.</p>
<p>If that amounts to matching his 2023 and &#8217;24 results, posting a sub-four ERA with a mid-20s K-BB% and serving as a two-win pitcher, then great. If he ends up exceeding those expectations, even better. But viewing him under this type of lens sets an attainable bar for a starter set to turn 41 in July.</p>

The Max Scherzer era has officially begun with the Toronto Blue Jays. 

After signing a one-year deal worth $15.5 million over the off-season, Scherzer made his highly-anticipated Grapefruit League debut on Tuesday against the St. Louis Cardinals, and the three-time Cy Young winner made quite the first impression, striking out four across two innings of one-run ball.

The 40-year-old righty was brilliant in his first exhibition outing as a Blue Jay, painting his fastball -- which touched 94 m.p.h., a feat he only accomplished 17 times in 2024 -- on the corners and fooling Cardinals hitters with his still-devastating slider. Though he primarily used his four-seamer, throwing it half the time, he displayed his entire five-pitch arsenal and finished with eight whiffs on 16 swings, earning a 50-per-cent clip.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p dir="ltr" lang="en">What a first impression 👀</p>
Scherzer’s <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/SpringTraining?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#SpringTraining</a> debut: 2 IP, FOUR Ks! <a href="https://t.co/D7POAN8TFu">pic.twitter.com/D7POAN8TFu</a>

— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) <a href="https://twitter.com/BlueJays/status/1894460956542894188?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 25, 2025</a></blockquote>
Having Scherzer look that sharp this early in camp is extremely encouraging as he embarks on his 18th major league season. And it's just as important that he came out of his debut as healthy as he was heading into it. All that said, there's still the burning question regarding what his expectations should be this season.

Coming off his injury-plagued 2024 campaign that only included nine starts, it's difficult to know what to plan for, especially at this stage of what will be a Hall-of-Fame career.

In the nine games Scherzer did make last season, he looked like himself. He wasn't the superstar pitcher who's been an All-Star eight times, including seven straight selections from 2013-19. But an effective big-league starter capable of making an impact at the back end of a rotation.

That's precisely what the Blue Jays need from him in '25. However, since there are many variations of what a back-of-the-rotation starter can look like, we still probably need to dig deeper. But let's not get ahead of ourselves, either.

Let's keep it simple and craft realistic expectations for Scherzer ahead of his inaugural campaign in Toronto. To do that, we must first examine his recent track record.
<h2>Past Performances</h2>
Ok, so let's break down Scherzer's nine starts from a year ago.

The former Texas Ranger missed all of spring training while recovering from off-season back surgery and was further delayed by a thumb injury and nerve issues, causing him to play catch-up leading up to his late-June return. But he was never 100 per cent built up, outlining the importance of keeping him healthy this spring.

In typical Max Scherzer fashion, though, he found a way to overcome those hurdles -- at least in the short term. He completed at least five innings across his first four starts of the 2024 campaign, pitching into the seventh during those last two, earning a respectable 3.09 ERA and 4.32 FIP with 17 strikeouts in 23.1 innings over that span.

Scherzer's next two starts weren't nearly as impressive, as he delivered consecutive short outings before bouncing back during a get-right matchup versus the 121-loss Chicago White Sox on July 25, where he punched out nine while allowing just one run on three hits and a walk across six frames.

But then the injuries began to set in once again.

The 6-foot-3 veteran only lasted four innings his next time out and landed on the IL soon after due to shoulder fatigue, causing him to miss over a month prior to his return in September. It was short-lived, though, as he only made one start before a hamstring strain landed him back on the mend for the remainder of the season.

In the end, Scherzer finished with a 3.95 ERA, 3.86 xERA, 4.18 FIP and a 16.9 per cent strikeout-to-walk rate difference (K-BB%) during his final year in Texas, worth just over half a win per fWAR -- down from his 2.2 rating in 2023.

Now, let's examine his most recent healthy season -- the '23 campaign, which he split between the New York Mets and Rangers.

Scherzer's final year in Queens was mostly up and down, resulting in an underwhelming 4.01 ERA and 4.70 FIP over 19 starts before being traded to the eventual World Series champions that season. He appeared rejuvenated upon arriving, impressing to the tune of a 3.20 ERA and 3.41 FIP in eight post-trade starts en route to winning his second championship title.

But that ride to the post-season wasn't without a few bumps along the way, including two starts where he failed to complete four innings of work down the stretch. However, it was clear he wasn't close to 100 per cent, with back and neck issues contributing to his less-than-impressive playoff performance that featured as many runs allowed (seven) as strikeouts recorded in three outings.

To his credit, Scherzer has fought off Father Time more effectively than most pitchers of his generation. He remained a front-line starter despite being well into his mid-30s, serving as a five and four-win pitcher in 2021 and '22, respectively, per fWAR. Now that he's 40, it's understandable that he isn't that same elite-level pitcher anymore.

That's true of the right-hander's results and the quality of his pitch repertoire. His fastball velocity, in particular, despite the encouraging bump he displayed Tuesday, has gradually declined over the past several seasons and was a major issue last year.

[caption id="attachment_83174" align="aligncenter" width="2560"]<img class="size-full wp-image-83174" src="https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2025/02/chart.jpeg" alt="" width="2560" height="1440" /> Source: <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/max-scherzer-453286?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Baseball Savant</a>[/caption]

From an overall perspective, Scherzer's underlying pitch qualities fully support the notion of his declining performance in recent years. It has been a steady downward trend, which began well before his injury-plagued 2024 campaign.

Dating back as far as the pandemic-shortened '20 season, the first season we have Stuff+ tracking for, we can see just how far the future Hall-of-Fame pitcher's arsenal has fallen in the years since, plummeting to as low as league average during last season's limited sample size.
<table style="border-collapse: collapse;width: 100%" border="1">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 50%"></td>
<td style="width: 50%;text-align: center"><strong>Stuff+</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 50%;text-align: center">2020</td>
<td style="width: 50%;text-align: center">111</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 50%;text-align: center">2021</td>
<td style="width: 50%;text-align: center">109</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 50%;text-align: center">2022</td>
<td style="width: 50%;text-align: center">107</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 50%;text-align: center">2023</td>
<td style="width: 50%;text-align: center">105</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 50%;text-align: center">2024</td>
<td style="width: 50%;text-align: center">100</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
And four of Scherzer's five pitches have also displayed a similar trend over the last five seasons, according to Stuff+.
<table style="border-collapse: collapse;width: 100%" border="1">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.6667%"></td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center"><strong>Four-Seamer</strong></td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center"><strong>Slider</strong></td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center"><strong>Cutter</strong></td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center"><strong>Curveball</strong></td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center"><strong>Changeup</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">2020</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">115</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">114</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">114</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">98</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">99</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">2021</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">114</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">113</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">105</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">99</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">96</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">2022</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">108</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">112</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">111</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">100</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">99</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">2023</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">106</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">109</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">110</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">101</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">95</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">2024</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">101</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">101</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">105</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">98</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">93</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Scherzer's days as a front-line starter are long gone. That's blatantly evident and to be expected, given the current stage of his career. However, his results from the last two seasons and pitch data from the previous five are sufficient evidence to suggest he likely has enough gas in the tank for at least one more decently strong year.

Even if he's half as valuable as he was in 2021 and '22, coming in around where he was in '23, that'll still be incredibly impactful for <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=y&amp;type=8&amp;month=0&amp;ind=0&amp;team=0%2Cts&amp;stats=sta&amp;startdate=&amp;enddate=&amp;season1=2023&amp;season=2023" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a Blue Jays rotation that ranked middle-of-the-pack in fWAR (10.6) last season</a> after placing sixth two years ago.
<h2>2025 Projections</h2>
To help support that notion, let's dive into Scherzer's player projections for the upcoming season.

Admittedly, projecting his 2025 results is complicated because of the time he missed last season, meaning the best practice would be to take his models with a grain of salt -- as you should with any performance-based projection. They can still serve a purpose, though.

If nothing else, they'll provide somewhat of a baseline prediction for his production with the Blue Jays, which, if it falls in the range of his projections from the three models most used from FanGraphs, they'll happily take.
<table style="border-collapse: collapse;width: 100%" border="1">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.6667%"></td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center"><strong>IP</strong></td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center"><strong>ERA</strong></td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center"><strong>FIP</strong></td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center"><strong>K-BB%</strong></td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center"><strong>fWAR</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">FanGraphs Depth Charts</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">122</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">3.76</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">3.86</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">19.4%</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">1.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">Steamer</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">124</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">3.91</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">3.91</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">19.4%</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">2.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">ZiPS</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">108</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">3.61</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">3.80</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">19.3%</td>
<td style="width: 16.6667%;text-align: center">1.7</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
All three models agree that Scherzer has a pretty strong chance of producing a sub-four ERA in 2025, continuing his streak from the previous two seasons. They also believe his odds of receiving a bump in swing-and-miss are fairly high. Returning to his peak of a strikeout rate between 30-35 per cent probably isn't likely. But, his positive regression could involve finishing closer to his 28-per-cent clip from two years ago rather than last season's 22.6-per-cent figure.

An aspect that's difficult to project is the veteran's health and availability, and rightly so. However, all three predict he'll be worth a touch below his '23 value of 2.2 fWAR. If not for his injuries last season, he likely would've accounted for similar value during his age-39 campaign.

Considering most industry experts value one win above replacement at approximately $10 million, receiving two for the price of $15.5 million would present quite the bargain for Toronto.
<h2>Final Verdict</h2>
In an ideal world, the Blue Jays probably have Scherzer make between 20-25 starts this season, affording them the ability to effectively manage his workload during the regular season to ensure he isn't run down if this team remains competitive by September and ultimately secures a playoff berth.

If that amounts to matching his 2023 and '24 results, posting a sub-four ERA with a mid-20s K-BB% and serving as a two-win pitcher, then great. If he ends up exceeding those expectations, even better. But viewing him under this type of lens sets an attainable bar for a starter set to turn 41 in July.

What are realistic expectations for Max Scherzer this season?

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