<p>Ross Atkins, Mark Shapiro, and the Blue Jays’ decision-makers can say what they want.</p>
<p>They can say they’re “definitively committed to this core,” as Atkins <a href="https://x.com/Sportsnet/status/1841514956430127528">told the media in October</a>. They can say the Jays “have some depth” to make trades to bolster the MLB club, as Atkins <a href="https://www.mlb.com/bluejays/news/ross-atkins-blue-jays-offseason-2024-gm-meetings">said at the Winter Meetings</a>. They can say the goal for 2025 and beyond is to win, as Shapiro <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/mark-shapiro-ross-atkins-state-of-blue-jays-end-2024">laid out at the end of the season</a>.</p>
<p></p>
<p>But, more than any of those words, actions speak. Signings talk. Trades are telling.</p>
<p>If we accept that the Blue Jays are not going to retool or trade away significant MLB assets for futures this winter, the way I see it Atkins and Shapiro have two potential paths ahead of them. The moves they make this winter will tell us what direction they choose:</p>
<h2><strong>Path #1: One Final Shot</strong></h2>
<p>This is what I call the soft investment. With Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. pending free agents and the rest of the core falling far beyond 30, this offseason plan involves short-term deals and small trades to plaster over holes, with the real vision on an inevitable reset after 2025.</p>
<p>This is exactly what we saw this leadership group do in the 2016-17 offseason, after Toronto’s back-to-back playoff appearances with an aging core. Instead of doubling down, the Jays made just enough moves to reasonably say they were trying to compete in 2017 — but really it was the beginning of a multi-year reset.</p>
<p>The Jays let Edwin Encarnacion, R.A. Dickey, and Michael Saunders walk, claiming a few relievers off waivers, signing some vets to short-term deals, and adding Kendrys Morales on a three-year deal as the real centerpiece of the winter (whoops). As I’m sure you recall, that 2017 Jays team went on to win 76 games, and the organization fully entered a rebuild the next winter.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Asked about a possible extension for Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins declined to get into specifics but said: &quot;Love the player. I&#39;m really excited about the year he had, especially the finish to it, and the leader that he is.&quot;</p>
<p>&mdash; Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith) <a href="https://twitter.com/bnicholsonsmith/status/1853955595440980177?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 6, 2024</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>If we see the Blue Jays sign some cheaper short-term deals, decide against the top end of the free-agent class, and not re-sign Guerrero Jr. to a long-term contract — they’ve decided once again on this path. Maybe it works out better, and they hit on the FA signings instead of whiffing as they did on Morales. Either way, this direction means a reset is coming in the near future — and we are likely watching the final seasons of Guerrero and Bichette as Blue Jays.</p>
<p>I’m not even arguing that was the wrong move in 2016-17 (if anything, they probably shouldn’t have even pretended to half-compete). And, there’s a real argument that this IS the correct direction for 2025. Retaining Bichette and Guerrero would cost boatloads of budget room without much around them; the Blue Jays’ farm system is mediocre at best, and a reset may be exactly what they need. But, objectively, it’ll be a tough path to trudge for fans.</p>
<h2><strong>Path #2: Reopen The Window</strong></h2>
<p>This is the fun path. The chaos path. The path that involves the Blue Jays accepting the irreparable payroll disaster that could result. It’s the double-down. All chips on the table.</p>
<p>Sign Guerrero. Sign a major free agent to a long-term deal along with him (ideally Juan Soto, but Anthony Santander or Teoscar Hernández would work just fine, too). It involves a legitimate investment in the bullpen through trades and free agency. It would require the Blue Jays <em>at least</em> getting back to the ~230 million CBT-spending payroll they ran before all the trades last season.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">
<p lang="qme" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueJays?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#BlueJays</a> <a href="https://t.co/P1xqclbDfH">https://t.co/P1xqclbDfH</a> <a href="https://t.co/aPGpxZ5MCA">pic.twitter.com/aPGpxZ5MCA</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Ben Turner (@benturn22) <a href="https://twitter.com/benturn22/status/1854675787753885960?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 8, 2024</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>It would also involve an uncomfortable amount of risk. Adding significant long-term free agents alongside an extension for Vlad (maybe Bo, too), would saddle the Jays with multiple long-term deals that extend late into the 2020s and perhaps beyond. If it doesn’t work out, they’re stuck with the money and a mediocre team — worst-case scenario. As things currently sit, José Berríos is the only Jay with a guaranteed contract for 2028 but even he has an opt-out after the 2026 season should things go sideways. Doubling down on this core for more than just a potential 2025 run would take away that long-term flexibility.</p>
<p>The first sign that the Jays have chosen this path would be a Guerrero Jr. extension, though they still could make that move despite planning on a soft reset in the future. But, if that Vlad extension comes alongside multiple lengthy contracts and prospect-for-big-leaguer trades, then we really know Atkins and company have chosen to take the risk — hoping to crack this team’s window back open for more than just a 2025 last gasp.</p>
<p>Toronto’s decision-makers can say whatever they want, but it’s the team’s offseason actions that will tell us what direction they’ve chosen.</p>

Ross Atkins, Mark Shapiro, and the Blue Jays’ decision-makers can say what they want.

They can say they’re “definitively committed to this core,” as Atkins <a href="https://x.com/Sportsnet/status/1841514956430127528">told the media in October</a>. They can say the Jays “have some depth” to make trades to bolster the MLB club, as Atkins <a href="https://www.mlb.com/bluejays/news/ross-atkins-blue-jays-offseason-2024-gm-meetings">said at the Winter Meetings</a>. They can say the goal for 2025 and beyond is to win, as Shapiro <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/mark-shapiro-ross-atkins-state-of-blue-jays-end-2024">laid out at the end of the season</a>.



But, more than any of those words, actions speak. Signings talk. Trades are telling.

If we accept that the Blue Jays are not going to retool or trade away significant MLB assets for futures this winter, the way I see it Atkins and Shapiro have two potential paths ahead of them. The moves they make this winter will tell us what direction they choose:
<h2><strong>Path #1: One Final Shot</strong></h2>
This is what I call the soft investment. With Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. pending free agents and the rest of the core falling far beyond 30, this offseason plan involves short-term deals and small trades to plaster over holes, with the real vision on an inevitable reset after 2025.

This is exactly what we saw this leadership group do in the 2016-17 offseason, after Toronto’s back-to-back playoff appearances with an aging core. Instead of doubling down, the Jays made just enough moves to reasonably say they were trying to compete in 2017 — but really it was the beginning of a multi-year reset.

The Jays let Edwin Encarnacion, R.A. Dickey, and Michael Saunders walk, claiming a few relievers off waivers, signing some vets to short-term deals, and adding Kendrys Morales on a three-year deal as the real centerpiece of the winter (whoops). As I’m sure you recall, that 2017 Jays team went on to win 76 games, and the organization fully entered a rebuild the next winter.

https://twitter.com/bnicholsonsmith/status/1853955595440980177

If we see the Blue Jays sign some cheaper short-term deals, decide against the top end of the free-agent class, and not re-sign Guerrero Jr. to a long-term contract — they’ve decided once again on this path. Maybe it works out better, and they hit on the FA signings instead of whiffing as they did on Morales. Either way, this direction means a reset is coming in the near future — and we are likely watching the final seasons of Guerrero and Bichette as Blue Jays.

I’m not even arguing that was the wrong move in 2016-17 (if anything, they probably shouldn’t have even pretended to half-compete). And, there’s a real argument that this IS the correct direction for 2025. Retaining Bichette and Guerrero would cost boatloads of budget room without much around them; the Blue Jays’ farm system is mediocre at best, and a reset may be exactly what they need. But, objectively, it’ll be a tough path to trudge for fans.
<h2><strong>Path #2: Reopen The Window</strong></h2>
This is the fun path. The chaos path. The path that involves the Blue Jays accepting the irreparable payroll disaster that could result. It’s the double-down. All chips on the table.

Sign Guerrero. Sign a major free agent to a long-term deal along with him (ideally Juan Soto, but Anthony Santander or Teoscar Hernández would work just fine, too). It involves a legitimate investment in the bullpen through trades and free agency. It would require the Blue Jays <em>at least</em> getting back to the ~230 million CBT-spending payroll they ran before all the trades last season.

https://twitter.com/benturn22/status/1854675787753885960

It would also involve an uncomfortable amount of risk. Adding significant long-term free agents alongside an extension for Vlad (maybe Bo, too), would saddle the Jays with multiple long-term deals that extend late into the 2020s and perhaps beyond. If it doesn’t work out, they’re stuck with the money and a mediocre team — worst-case scenario. As things currently sit, José Berríos is the only Jay with a guaranteed contract for 2028 but even he has an opt-out after the 2026 season should things go sideways. Doubling down on this core for more than just a potential 2025 run would take away that long-term flexibility.

The first sign that the Jays have chosen this path would be a Guerrero Jr. extension, though they still could make that move despite planning on a soft reset in the future. But, if that Vlad extension comes alongside multiple lengthy contracts and prospect-for-big-leaguer trades, then we really know Atkins and company have chosen to take the risk — hoping to crack this team’s window back open for more than just a 2025 last gasp.

Toronto’s decision-makers can say whatever they want, but it’s the team’s offseason actions that will tell us what direction they’ve chosen.

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