A lot was riding on Max Scherzer’s long-awaited return to the Blue Jays‘ starting rotation on Wednesday in Cleveland. Despite the high potential for things to go awry, it went about as well as the Blue Jays could’ve hoped for.

Unlike Scherzer’s first outing of the season on March 29, when he lasted three innings and threw 45 pitches, the right-hander made it through five innings and threw 83 pitches versus the Guardians. More so than his pitching line (five innings, six hits, three earned runs, four strikeouts and three walks) was the fact that Scherzer wasn’t removed from the game due to injury.

Another encouraging sign was his velocity ticked up, even reaching 95.3 MPH on this strikeout of Lane Thomas. The last time Scherzer pumped gas at 95+ MPH was nearly a year ago when he was a member of the Texas Rangers on June 28, 2024. Adrenaline may have fuelled this pitch, but if you’re a Blue Jays fan, you love to see this from Mad Max.

The walks were a little concerning, but that’s expected from someone who had a three-month layoff and is trying to get a feel for their pitches. Scherzer himself admitted, “I was a little rusty.”

The fastball location wasn’t quite where he wanted it to be, but his curveball was probably his best pitch in that outing against the Guardians. Scherzer struck out Carlos Santana twice on that pitch, and half the battle for the Blue Jays in facing Santana is merely keeping the ball in the yard.

As of yet, there are no ill effects to report from Scherzer, which is a huge positive for his place in the starting rotation. The Blue Jays aren’t completely out of the woods with their starting rotation plans, but they can exhale a little easier after seeing what Scherzer accomplished on Wednesday.

Now, for the first time since late March, the Blue Jays have five actual starting pitchers in their rotation. The team walked the tightrope with various fill-ins over the last three months, but they’ve settled on a current rotation of Jose Berrios, Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Eric Lauer and Scherzer.

Even before Scherzer’s return was reported, starting pitching help was among the biggest needs for the Blue Jays. Sure, they have five starters now, but will that last the rest of the season? It never hurts to have depth because there’s still a second half of the season left to play, plus the potential of playoff baseball.

With all due respect to Scherzer and Lauer, I don’t think that changes Toronto’s plans to shop for a starting pitcher on the trade market. Considering this chronic thumb injury that Scherzer has dealt with dating back to 2023, the Blue Jays should have a ‘break glass in case of emergency’ starter waiting in the wings just in case Scherzer goes down.

And Eric Lauer has been one of the better feel-good stories for the Blue Jays this year, but one wonders whether he might turn into a pumpkin at some point, similar to what happened with Eason Lucas earlier in the year. Lauer has a more impressive body of work as a starter, so he’ll get a little more rope, but his spot could always be improved upon.

As it currently sits, the Blue Jays don’t have their starting rotation quite optimized, with both Lauer and Scherzer going back-to-back without one of the other arms providing a gap. Because Scherzer hasn’t quite built up his pitch count and Lauer hasn’t thrown more than 5 1/3 innings in an outing this year, having fresh relievers on both Lauer and Scherzer start days may overwork the bullpen.

If things stay the course until after the All-Star break, the Blue Jays will likely reset their rotation, likely moving one or the other of Scherzer and Lauer to opposite ends of the starting rotation. That will hopefully give the bullpen more time to rest in between potential short outings from either or both of Scherzer and Lauer.

Even if Scherzer stays healthy and Lauer continues to perform, it would be short-sighted of the Blue Jays to stop looking for another starting pitcher on the trade market. As we saw during the first week of the season, the Blue Jays already had to move on to Plan B for their starting rotation after Scherzer went down.

And now with Bowden Francis’s tailspin and subsequent injury, it’s safe to assume his spot in the starting rotation isn’t safe if and when he’s healthy enough to come off the injured list. Francis was already on the bubble, but a lack of starting pitching depth kept him in that starter’s role. But not anymore.

Any trade for a starting pitcher would bump Lauer out of the rotation, moving him back into the bullpen as the long relief option that was temporarily filled by Spencer Turnbull. Having a swingman who can bounce between the rotation and bullpen is invaluable, so Lauer’s spot on the roster is safe for now.

If the Blue Jays are trying to swing big for a starting pitching upgrade, Freddy Peralta from the Milwaukee Brewers makes sense. There could be a Jose Berrios-esque trade out there for the Blue Jays to acquire a starter who has additional control on their contract. Chris Bassitt is a free agent at the end of this year, so the Blue Jays automatically need to fill his spot in the rotation next year, anyway.

But if the asking price from the Brewers is too exorbitant, the Blue Jays might swing medium and call the Athletics to check on Luis Severino, or perhaps even reunite with old friend Yusei Kikuchi. Regardless of who may come into the organization, any of the existing Blue Jays starting pitchers would love to see reinforcements in the rotation.

Because things are so volatile on the back end of the Blue Jays’ starting rotation, this may be an eleventh-hour decision to determine whether Toronto will jump into the starting pitching market. A few bad outings from Lauer or a thumb issue with Scherzer, and the Blue Jays would be down another starter with few internal options on the horizon.

If there’s one aspect of this Blue Jays team that can vault them ahead in the standings, it’s the quality of their starting pitching. The next five weeks will be crucial to see whether the Blue Jays are aggressive in the market, stay the course, or wave the white flag.