The roving closer situation involving Jeff Hoffman has become a growing concern for the Blue Jays. Hoffman has struggled for much of the season and has found himself in several unfortunate situations, raising questions about his role moving forward.

April marked the beginning of Hoffman’s decline, and the struggles have continued into June. The veteran reliever lost his closer role and was replaced by right-hander Louis Varland, who appears to be settling comfortably into the position.

Hoffman currently owns a 6.08 ERA and a -0.7 WAR. In 29 appearances, he has recorded five saves while blowing three opportunities. The strikeout rate is still high (15.5 K/9), and the walks are manageable (3.3 BB/9), but he has struggled in the high-leverage situations, and opponents own an .858 OPS on the right-hander this season.

How does that compare to a more successful closer? Looking at former Blue Jays reliever Seranthony Domínguez, now the closer for the Chicago White Sox, provides some perspective.

Domínguez has appeared in 25 games, recording 11 saves while also blowing three save opportunities. He owns a 3.91 ERA and a 0.2 WAR. Hoffman’s negative WAR can be attributed to his blown saves, inherited runners scoring, and an ERA that is nearly double that of a reliable closer.

The right-hander’s appearance on May 30 only added to concerns about his reliability. Entering the ninth inning with a five-run lead, Hoffman watched the advantage quickly disappear, ultimately contributing to a Blue Jays loss. In just one-third of an inning, Hoffman allowed five earned runs on three hits while walking two and striking out one.

The outing did little to strengthen his case for a return to the closer role and raised further questions about his place in the Blue Jays bullpen.

Despite the disappointing results, Hoffman still possesses the traits of an elite reliever. Some of his struggles have stemmed from unfortunate circumstances, but the accumulation of poor outings has understandably damaged confidence in his reliability.

He still carries an impressive 36.5% strikeout rate, a respectable 7.9% walk rate, and a strong 29.9% hard-hit rate. The issue appears to be more related to pitch selection and location. A better understanding of opposing hitters and improved execution could help him regain his effectiveness.

The Blue Jays could explore trading Hoffman, but what would the return look like? Most likely, it would involve acquiring another high-leverage reliever who carries similar risk. The organization already knows what Hoffman is capable of when he’s at his best, so it likely makes more sense to keep working with him in-house rather than trading him away or having him DFA’d.

At this stage, Hoffman should not be viewed as a long-term setup man or closer. Instead, he would benefit from being deployed in lower-leverage situations and favourable matchups that can help rebuild confidence and consistency.

Management should place him in situations where the statistical probabilities work in his favour. That could mean carefully selecting matchups on a batter-by-batter basis or choosing innings where the game situation reduces pressure.

Trading Hoffman may not provide a significant advantage for the Blue Jays. Instead, learning how to maximize his pitch profile and strengths could prove more beneficial. To accomplish that, the coaching staff and front office will need to take a deeper analytical approach to his usage patterns, matchups, and overall role within the bullpen.

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