Morosi just now on the Baseball is Dead live stream: “Now that Diaz is signed, it’s Mets vs Blue Jays for Robert Suarez and I expect him to sign with one of those two teams.”
Why Robert Suarez isn’t a sure thing for the Blue Jays
Photo credit: © Denis Poroy-Imagn Images
By Ben Wrixon
Dec 10, 2025, 14:30 ESTUpdated: Dec 10, 2025, 14:26 EST
The Toronto Blue Jays cast a notoriously wide net in free agency, checking in on just about every player available. They’ve reportedly expressed interest in former San Diego Padres closer Robert Suarez in their hunt to fortify their bullpen—but is that a good idea?
Suarez has been excellent over the previous two seasons. He led the National League with 40 saves in 2025 and locked down 36 the year before. He posted an ERA below 3.00 with a 1.05 WHIP or better in each of those All-Star campaigns.
The right-hander is looking to cash in on his recent performance this offseason, but the Blue Jays should be cautious with their offer if they decide to pursue him.
Suarez throws hard and limits walks. His fastball averaged 98.6 mph in 2025, and he issued free passes to just 5.9% of the batters he faced. This combination of velocity and command, while ideal, comes with the unfortunate trade-off of allowing a worrisome amount of hard contact. He ranked in just the 16th percentile in average exit velocity allowed, and was in the 36th percentile or worse in opposing barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Even more concerning is the distribution of these batted balls. Suarez induced ground balls a career-low 36.9% of the time last year while allowing opponents to hit the ball in the air at a career-high 63.1% rate. His 27.8% line drive rate allowed was also a career high.
This combination played fine in San Diego, which grades as pitcher-friendly by Statcast Park Factors, but it’s worth wondering how it would translate to Rogers Centre and the other AL East ballparks that are favourable environments for hitting home runs.
That’s relevant considering Blue Jays pitchers surrendered the sixth-most home runs in the league (209) despite posting solid numbers overall. Pitchers, for whatever reason, give up more home runs when they become Blue Jays, and Suarez is a prime candidate to continue that trend—especially if his barrel rate allowed climbs for the fifth year in a row.
Still, with all that said, Suarez would likely still be an improvement over Jeff Hoffman as the Blue Jays’ closer in 2026. The real conversation is whether it’s worth paying what he will cost with other holes to fill on the roster. Reuniting with Seranthony Domínguez for less money might be a better move if the front office is working on a budget, especially if the savings allow them to reel in Kyle Tucker or bring back Bo Bichette.
Signing Robert Suarez would make the Blue Jays a better team, but it might not completely put their ninth-inning issues to rest. Whether that’s good enough to warrant meeting his price tag will depend on the resources at their disposal.
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