AL Playoff Update 10/15/19 – Odds and MLB Betting Trends

by OddsShark (@OddsShark)

The Houston Astros evened the best-of-seven ALCS 1-1 on Sunday with a 3-2 win in 11 innings decided on a walk-off home run by Carlos Correa off Yankees left-hander J.A. Happ. The Yankees went into that game as a -150 favorite on the series prices at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com with the Astros coming back at +115 on those MLB odds.

Now that Houston has earned its first win of the series, though, they’re now the -150 favorites on the series prices, with the Yankees sitting at +115 on those betting futures. Since the league championship series expanded to a best-of-seven format in 1985, the team that wins Game 3 after the series is tied 1-1 has gone on to win 66.7 percent of the time.

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The Astros can potentially get three more starts from Gerrit Cole, who won the American League earned-run average (2.50) and strikeout titles (3.26), and fellow 20-game winner Justin Verlander in the series. Cole will start Game 3 on Tuesday as a consensus -154 favorite and he and Verlander would be in line to pitch Game 6 and Game 7 if necessary.

Offensively, the Astros had only three runs and 10 hits off Yankees pitching in 20 innings at Minute Maid Park over the weekend, but the law-of-averages inclined have surely noted the total has gone OVER at online betting sites in 10 of their last 16 away games in the playoffs.

The Yankees cede the edge in starting pitching, but they are 9-3 in their last 12 home games in the playoffs, including a 3-1 mark against Houston even though the Astros won both rounds (the 2015 wild-card game and the 2017 ALCS). For Game 3, the Yankees will start right-hander Luis Severino, who has a 3.86 ERA and 33 strikeouts in 25.1 career innings against Houston while holding batters to a .240 / .303 / .370 slash line.

The Yankees have needed their vaunted bullpen more so far in the series. After the Yankees tallied nine runs and 19 hits in Houston, it might be worth noting that the total has gone OVER in six of their last eight home playoff games.

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The series winner will have home-field advantage in the World Series against the Washington Nationals-St. Louis Cardinals NLCS winner.

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