by OddsShark (@OddsShark) – Sponsored Post
Perhaps contrary to expectations, there are some noticeable OVER trends in a matchup where the Toronto Blue Jays’ hobbled offense will face Jacob deGrom, the New York Mets’ two-time Cy Young Award winner.
The Blue Jays are the +175 home underdogs while the deGrom-led Mets are -200 away favorites with an 8.5-run total on the MLB odds for Friday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.
The Blue Jays are 11-7 in their last 18 home games against NL East competition, with the OVER hitting 12 times at sports betting sites. Toronto is also 10-10 in its last 20 games as a home underdog of +150 or more. The Mets are 7-2 in deGrom’s last nine starts when they were favored on the road, but six of those matchups went OVER. The Mets are 7-4 as an away favorite this season and the total has gone OVER in seven of those 11 matchups.
Toronto is likely to be without two power bats, with first baseman Rowdy Tellez (knee) and rightfielder Teoscar Hernandez (ribs) both sidelined. Their potential long-term absences might weaken a lineup that is averaging 6.1 runs per game in home games at Sahlen Field with an .845 home OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) that is fourth-best among the 30 MLB teams. The pitching staff’s 3.94 home earned-run average ranks 11th. The Mets have been productive on the road, scoring 5.0 runs per game with MLB’s second-highest road OPS (.814). Their pitching has not travelled quite so well; the Mets’ 4.65 road ERA ranks 14th.
Righthander Chase Anderson (0-0, 4.94 ERA, 8.0 strikeouts per nine innings) will start opposite fellow righty deGrom (3-1, 1.69 ERA, 13.1 SO/9) in Friday’s matchup. The total has gone UNDER in Anderson’s last three starts when his team was an underdog. DeGrom will be facing the Blue Jays for the first time in his career.
Lefthanders Robbie Ray (1-4, 7.51 ERA, 12.2 SO/9) and Hyun Jin Ryu (3-1, 3.19 ERA, 9.9 SO/9) would be in line to start on Saturday and Sunday for the Blue Jays, with no official announcement yet. Ray has had control problems recently but has a 2.78 ERA in 22.2 career innings against the Mets. Ryu’s teams are 18-2 in his last 20 starts at home and the total has gone OVER 14 times. However, he’s had the Mets’ number in his career, with a 1.20 ERA in 52.2 career innings with a .206 / .237 / .296 batting slash line.
The Blue Jays have their final scheduled off day of the season on Monday ahead of a six-day, seven-game road trip where they face the New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies’ series includes a doubleheader on September 18.