Astros vs Blue Jays 06/04/21 – Odds and MLB Betting Trends

Two of the top three offenses in baseball are squaring off and both carry notable OVER trends, but some strong starting pitching could invoke the law of averages. The Toronto Blue Jays are -125 home favorites and the Houston Astros are +105 underdogs with an 8.5-run total on the MLB odds for Friday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com (how sports betting works).

The Blue Jays are 10-10 in their last 20 games as a home favorite of -110 to -140, with the OVER hitting 12 times at online betting sites. The Astros are 6-14 in their last 20 games as an away underdog, with the OVER hitting 11 times. The total has gone OVER in both seven of Toronto’s last 10 home games and in 10 of Houston’s last 12 games.

The Astros, who have a 31-25 record, have MLB’s third-best run production at 5.21 per game and their .756 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) ranks second. Veteran outfielder Michael Brantley (hamstring) could come off the injured list as early as Friday. Houston’s pitching staff ranks 11th in earned-run average at 3.81. Their bullpen has had issues, as their relievers’ 4.45 ERA ranks 20th.

The Blue Jays, who are 29-25, are second in runs per game at 5.04, and their .769 OPS is first among the 30 MLB teams, even though slugging outfielder George Springer (quadriceps) has barely played this season. Toronto’s pitching staff has the 12th-best ERA at 3.87, which is bolstered by the Blue Jays bullpen ranking sixth in relief ERA at 3.45.

Lefthander Hyun Jin Ryu (5-2, 2.62 ERA, 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings pitched) will start opposite Houston righty Zack Greinke (5-2, 3.67 ERA, 7.0 SO/9) in Friday’s matchup. The Blue Jays are 6-2 in Ryu’s last eight home-favorite starts, although the total has gone OVER six times. The Astros are 4-1 in Greinke’s last five away starts, and he has a 2.45 ERA over his last three games.

Righthander Ross Stripling (1-3, 5.11 ERA, 9.5 SO/9) will start on Saturday opposite fellow righty José Urquidy (4-2, 3.02 ERA, 7.5 SO/9). The Astros are 5-0 in Urquidy’s last five starts and he has a 1.53 ERA over that stretch. Stripling’s teams are 4-6 in his last 10 starts at home, but he has shown good form in his last two starts with an 0.75 ERA over his last 12 innings. Urquidy beat the Blue Jays on May 7, although he did allow a home run to Toronto’s Bo Bichette. The Astros are 4-6 in Urquidy’s last 10 starts on the road.

Lefthander Steven Matz (6-2, 4.22 ERA, 9.7 SO/9) will start on Sunday opposite rookie righthander Luis García (4-3, 2.89 ERA, 10.2 SO/9), who has never faced the Blue Jays. Matz’s teams are 2-8 in his last 10 starts at home with the OVER hitting six times. García has won four consecutive starts with a 1.57 ERA over that stretch. The total has gone UNDER in three of his last five starts on the road.

The Blue Jays have another off day on Monday before beginning a three-game away series against the Chicago White Sox.