Blue Jays vs Mets 07/23/21 – Odds and MLB Betting Trends

The Toronto Blue Jays have not been terribly affected when they lose the designated-hitter spot in National League parks, and they also get to start an interleague matchup with a starter who will be in his former home ballpark. The Blue Jays are narrow -115 away favorites and the New York Mets are -105 home underdogs with an 8.5-run total on the MLB odds for Friday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com (how the moneyline works).

The Blue Jays are 6-3 in their last nine away games, with the total going UNDER five times. They are also 12-8 in their last 20 away games against teams from the NL East division, with the total going UNDER 15 times. The Mets are 11-9 in their last 20 home games, with the total going UNDER 11 times. The Mets are 9-11 in their last 20 home games against AL East competition, with the total going UNDER 12 times at online betting sites.

The Blue Jays have a 48-44 record. They are MLB’s third-highest scoring team at 5.18 runs per game, ranking first in OPS at .783. Vladimir Guerrero has four home runs in five games since the all-star break, but it might be a concern for the Blue Jays that his 1.045 OPS so far this month is 200-plus points higher than any of their other top-six hitters. On the mound, the Blue Jays are 12th in starting pitcher ERA (3.98) and 13th in relief ERA (4.09).

The Mets lead the NL East with a 50-43 record. Their offensive output of 3.95 runs per game is ranked 27th in MLB, and they are 19th in OPS at .700. However, all-star first baseman Pete Alonso has a 1.049 OPS since the all-star break, and he will also have two matchups this weekend against lefthanded starters. On the mound, the Mets are second in starting pitcher ERA (3.02) and 15th in relief ERA (4.13).

Blue Jays lefthander Steven Matz (8-4, 4.43 ERA, 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings) will start on Friday opposite Mets rookie righthander Tylor Megill (0-0, 2.63 ERA, 10.5 SO/9). Matz, who will be pitching against his former team for the first time, has helped the Blue Jays go 6-3 in his last nine away starts, with the OVER hitting five times. His career 3.81 ERA at Citi Field is more than a half-run lower than his career mark. The Mets are 4-1 in Megill’s starts since he was called up with the UNDER hitting three times, but the Blue Jays will be his first opponent who has a winning record.

Lefthander Hyun Jin Ryu (9-5, 3.32 ERA, 7.2 SO/9).will start on Saturday opposite Mets righthander Taijuan Walker (7-3, 2.99 ERA, 8.9 SO/9). Ryu has a 1.23 ERA in 58.2 career innings against the Mets and the Blue Jays are 6-1 in his last seven away starts, with the OVER hitting four times. Walker, who pitched for the Blue Jays in 2020, has helped his teams go 12-0 in his last 12 home starts, with a 6-6 split on the OVER/UNDER. Walker has a 1.75 home ERA, but was knocked out in the first inning of his road start on July 18. Opponents’ batting average on balls in play (BABIP) against Walker is also 30 points lower at Citi Field than it is on the road.

Righthander Ross Stripling (3-6, 5.04 ERA, 9.4 SO/9).will start on Sunday, while the Mets have not named their starting pitcher. Like Walker, Stripling was also lit up and lasted less than one inning in his last outing on July 19. His teams are 12-8 in his last 20 away starts with a 9-10-1 OVER/UNDER split.

The Blue Jays begin next week on the road with a four-game series against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park.