Mariners vs Blue Jays 06/29/21 – Odds and MLB Betting Trends

Some interdivisional trends suggest that the Toronto Blue Jays might have a hiccup at home against a team which is a tough out when it ventures east. The Blue Jays are -195 favorites at home and the Seattle Mariners are +175 underdogs with a 10.0-run total on the MLB odds for Tuesday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com (how sports betting works).

Seattle is above .500, and the Blue Jays are just 2-11 in their last 13 home games against teams which currently have a winning record. The Blue Jays are 12-8 in their last 20 home games as a -160 to -195 favorite at online betting sites. Four of their six matchups in that sample that took place at Sahlen Field in Buffalo have finished OVER. The Mariners are 11-9 in their last 20 games as an away underdog of +150 to +175, with the total going OVER 11 times.

Toronto and Seattle have not played since August 2019. The Blue Jays are 8-12 in their last 20 home games against AL West teams, and the total has gone UNDER in eight of the last 12 such matchups. The Mariners are 10-7 in their last 17 away games against AL East teams, with the OVER hitting nine times.

The Mariners are 41-38 this season. Seattle is scoring 4.06 runs per game, which ranks 22nd among the 30 MLB teams. The Mariners are 28th in OPS (.671). Third-place hitter Ty France (.840 OPS in June) is in more of a groove than No. 2 hitter Mitch Haniger (.640 in June) as they head into a series where Toronto will throw only lefthanded starters. On the mound, the Mariners are 20th in earned-run average (4.41), and rank 19th in relief ERA (4.20).

The Blue Jays are 40-36 on the season. Toronto is MLB’s second-highest scoring team at 5.09 runs per game, thanks to their Vladimir Guerrero Jr.-led hitting attack whose .777 OPS is second in MLB. On the mound, the Blue Jays are 14th in ERA (3.94), and their bullpen is 11th in relief ERA (3.85).

Lefthander Robbie Ray (5-3, 3.35 ERA, 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings) will start in Tuesday’s matchup opposite righthander Chris Flexen (6-3, 3.87 ERA, 6.1 SO/9). Ray has helped his teams go 7-2 in his last nine home-favorite starts, with the total going UNDER in the last two. Ray also has a 3.71 ERA over 17 career innings against Seattle. Flexen, who has never faced Toronto, has helped his teams go 5-4 in his nine career away starts, with the OVER hitting all nine times.

Lefthander Steven Matz (7-3, 4.26 ERA, 9.7 SO/9) will start on Wednesday, while the Mariners are using righthander Justus Sheffield (5-7, 5.69 ERA, 7.1 SO/9). Matz is scheduled for his first start since June 12 after being in COVID-19 protocol. Matz’s teams are 1-8 in his last nine starts at home, with the total going OVER in five of the last seven. The Mariners are 5-8 in Sheffield’s last 13 starts on the road, with the OVER hitting eight times.

Hyun Jin Ryu (7-4, 3.41 ERA, 7.2 SO/9) and fellow lefthander Yusei Kikuchi (5-3, 3.34 ERA, 9.1 SO/9) will square off in a matinee matchup on Thursday. Ryu’s teams are 11-5 in his last 16 starts at home, with the OVER hitting 13 times. He has never faced Seattle. The Mariners are 3-4 in Kikucki’s last seven away starts with the total going OVER five times, but he did pitch a complete-game shutout in August 2019 during his only career start against Toronto.

The Blue Jays’ next series is a three-game home set against the Tampa Bay Rays. That matchup begins on Friday.