The Blue Jays came through with a desperately needed win Wednesday over the Orioles after being humiliated by a combined score of 17-3 in the opening two games of this series.

The Orioles will debut yet another highly touted prospect on Thursday, as Cade Povich is set to make his MLB debut. Yusei Kikuchi will make his 13th start of the season Thursday, looking to bounce back after a pair of ugly showings in which he allowed eight earned runs across eight and one-third innings.

Let’s dive into the odds and relevant game notes for Thursday’s matchup between the Orioles and Blue Jays via bet365:

What the Orioles pitching staff has done with Felix Bautista, John Means, Dean Kremer and Tyler Wells all either out for the season or having missed time is extremely impressive. Baltimore’s staff owns an ERA of just 3.24 in 2024 and an xFIP of 3.84. So while Povich could jump in and post respectable numbers right out of the gates, the Blue Jays should still consider themselves lucky to be getting this matchup on Thursday.

Povich has thrown to a 3.18 ERA in 56 and 2/3 innings this season in Triple-A, with a 3.57 K/BB ratio. He also pitched to a 1.29 ERA in three Grapefruit League appearances this spring.

The Orioles continue to post excellent results against left-handed pitching and feature a number of bats who have been effective against Kikuchi historically. Baltimore has a wRC+ of 126 against left-handed pitching over the last 30 days, with an OPS of .782. The Orioles’ wRC+ of 132 against lefties over the entirety of the season ranks second in MLB.

Backing Ryan Mountcastle to do some damage today in the prop market will be a highly popular bet once again, given the way he has terrorized the Blue Jays over what has become a large sample.

Mountcastle has also hit .471 with a 1.806 OPS in 17 AB’s versus Kikuchi. He has slugged .679 over the last two weeks and slugged .533 versus lefties this season.

Jorge Mateo should remain the only position player unavailable to Brandon Hyde for this matchup.

Kikuchi will look to right himself here after three straight less-than-convincing outings, which came against a well-below-average slate of opponents altogether. He has allowed an xBA of .353 in his last three starts and allowed a hard-hit rate of 47%. His strikeout rate has plummeted to just 14.7% in those matchups. In his last two outings in particular, his velocity on his secondary pitches was down considerably.

Kikuchi has been legitimately excellent this season with a 3.49 xERA and 3.34 xFIP, but it’s hard to say his form is as strong right now as it has been all season.

The Blue Jays offense extended its absurd streak of games without scoring a first-inning run to 25 last night.

Yesterday’s first inning perfectly encapsulated their offensive play, as you could argue that Bo Bichette’s 104.9 MPH lineout with a man on second being caught was unlucky, and the ball did have an xBA of .640. The numbers suggest the Jays have been unlucky, but it’s also clear that clutch hitting is a legitimate concern among the team right now.

The Blue Jays have been far less effective versus left-handed pitching this season. They own a wRC+ of just 63 versus lefties over the last 30 days and 91 over the entire year.

The prices on this matchup look fair, and there is no argument which gives me conviction one way or the other. It’s difficult to project how Povich might fare in his debut here, but Kikuchi’s recent form is quite concerning.

What is clear is that the Orioles will provide a tough matchup for Kikuchi to get right, and a safer way to fade the Blue Jays here is by attacking a lesser start from Kikuchi.

Kikuchi’s out line is set at 17.5 with juice to the over. He’s gone under that line in three of four outings, and there have been some legitimate concerns in those outings beyond simply bad variance. Now, he takes on one of the league’s best offenses versus lefties, which makes me believe this line is inflated too much based upon his early season form.

At +105, there is value backing Kikuchi to record under 17.5 outs in this matchup.

All of the splits support Mountcastle continuing his dominance over the Jays’ here, and at -110 there is value backing him to record over 1.5 total bases in this matchup.