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MLB Betting Preview (May 7): Blue Jays vs. Phillies predictions
Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Bryce Harper (3) is congratulated by catcher J.T. Realmuto (10) after hitting a home run against the San Diego Padres during the third inning at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
Photo credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
Greg Warren
May 7, 2024, 11:00 EDTUpdated: May 7, 2024, 11:05 EDT
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After a day off Monday, the struggling Toronto Blue Jays will be back in action Tuesday for the opener of a two-game interleague series with the Phillies in Philadelphia.
Toronto dropped two of three games to the Washington Nationals over the weekend to fall three games below .500. and drop to fifth in the American League East Division. The Blue Jays uncharacteristically surrendered 23 runs to the Nationals over the three-game set, with the bullpen particularly getting ravaged.
Philadelphia, meanwhile, is one of the hottest teams in baseball with wins in six straight games overall and 10 consecutive home games.
Let’s dive into the game odds for Tuesday’s clash between the Blue Jays and Phillies via bet365:

Blue Jays vs. Phillies odds

Blue Jays Moneyline Odds
+110
Phillies Moneyline Odds
-130
Runline Odds
Phillies -1.5 (+160), Blue Jays +1.5 (-190)
Over/Under
Over 8.5 runs (-110), Under 8.5 runs (-110)
Time/Date
May 7, 6:40 p.m. ET
TV
Broadcast: Sportsnet 1, Sportsnet+

Betting Toronto Blue Jays (16-19 SU, 16-19 ATS, 15-20 o/u)

The Blue Jays will obviously be disappointed after dropping their fourth consecutive series, but at least the bats came alive over the weekend against the Nationals. Toronto put 17 runs on the board over the three-game series (average of 5.7 per game) and the Jays scored more than five runs in a game twice over the weekend after accomplishing the feat just four times in their first 32 games. Toronto is averaging just 3.7 runs per game this season (23rd in the majors) and it ranks in the back half of the league in team batting average (.226 – 23rd), on-base percentage (.308 – 18th), slugging percentage (.362 – 23rd), OPS (.670 – 20th), and home runs (30 – 23rd).
The bigger issue facing the Blue Jays now is the complete collapse of their bullpen, which has the worst ERA (5.31) in MLB. Recent injuries to Chad Green and Yimi Garcia, who held down key high-leverage roles while Erik Swanson and Jordan Romano began the season on the injured list, are partially to blame. Garcia has allowed just one run over 13 appearances, but he hasn’t pitched in a game this month due to a wonky back. Green is on the injured list with a shoulder problem. Toronto relievers have coughed up 22 homers to this point, tied with the Tampa Bay Rays for the most in baseball. One positive is that the unit will be fresh after a day off Monday and everyone will likely be available, if needed.

Betting Philadelphia Phillies (25-11 SU, 19-17 ATS, 16-18-2 o/u)

The surging Phillies, who boast the best record in baseball at 25-11 entering play Tuesday, will present a formidable challenge to the Blue Jays in this short series. They’ve outscored the opposition 38-17 during their current six-game winning streak and they’re an incredible 14-6 straight-up at home this season.
On a team loaded with superstars, third baseman Alec Bohm is leading the charge early, posting an impressive .349/.418/.558 slash line with four homers and a team-leading 32 RBIs. He carried an 18-game hitting streak into action Monday against the San Francisco Giants, but went 0-for-4 to put an end to the run which was the longest in the majors this season and the longest by a Phillies player since 2017.
The Phillies rank in the top five in the majors in several offensive statistical categories, including batting average (.256 – fifth), on-base percentage (.332 – second), slugging percentage (.414 – fourth), OPS (.746 – third), home runs (44 – third), and steals (41 – fifth).
One setback for the Phillies is the recent hamstring injury suffered by shortstop Trea Turner, who is expected to be out for several more weeks. Turner has slashed .343/.392/.460 in 33 games and leads the team with 10 stolen bases. 

Probable starting pitchers

Toronto: RHP Jose Berrios (4-2, 1.44 ERA, 6.39 K/9, 1.01 WHIP)
Berrios has been exceptional for the Blue Jays despite taking back-to-back losses to the Kansas City Royals. He leads all qualified MLB starters with a microscopic 1.44 ERA and he’s had more success this season pitching to contact. His 6.39 K/9 is on pace to be the lowest of his nine-year career, but he’s been able to keep his pitch count under 100 in five of his seven starts this year. The right-hander’s off-speed pitches have been virtually unhittable to this point, as opposing batters are hitting just .160 off his slurve and .111 off his changeup. Berrios has thrown at least six innings in six of his seven starts this year. The only exception was a rain-shortened outing against the Royals on April 25.
Philadelphia: LHP Cristopher Sanchez (1-3, 3.68 ERA, 8.90 K/9, 1.53 WHIP)
Sanchez is a master at inducing ground balls as evidenced by his 62.2% ground-ball rate which ranks in the 97th percentile, according to Baseball Savant. That means he typically excels at keeping the ball in the park. The lefty has surrendered just one homer across 29 1/3 innings this season and he utilizes his sinker almost 50% of the time to work the bottom half of the strike zone. Sanchez yielded a season-high four earned runs on seven hits last time out against the Los Angeles Angels and he struck out just one. He’ll have the element of surprise on Tuesday, though, as there isn’t a current player on Toronto’s roster with an at-bat against him.

Weather

It should be a perfect evening for baseball at Citizens Bank Park, with clear skies and temperatures around 21 C expected. Light winds around six mph will be blowing out to left field.

MLB betting trends

  • The Phillies have been favoured by -130 or more in 25 games this season and are 17-8 straight-up in those games (68%-win rate).
  • The Blue Jays are 3-10 straight-up as underdogs this season (23%-win rate).
  • Toronto has played over the total in three straight games and four of its last six.
  • The over is 5-2-1 in Philadelphia’s last eight games.

MLB player prop trends

  • Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has hit safely in eight straight games and has three multi-hit performances during that span. Vladdy is +180 to record over 1.5 hits.
  • Phillies first baseman Bryce Harper has homered in back-to-back games and has eight bombs this year. He’s +220 to go deep and is 0-for-2 with a walk in his career against Berrios.
  • Phillies designated hitter Kyle Schwarber has scored a run in four straight games and nine of his last 10. He’s -150 to score a run and is hitless in five career at-bats against Berrios.

Blue Jays vs. Phillies predictions

  • Considering Philadelphia’s recent dominant form and Toronto’s recent struggles, we’re getting a good price on the Phillies moneyline (-130) here. Toronto has the edge in the starting pitching department for this matchup, but the bullpen could once again be exposed by an explosive Phillies lineup. This will also be a stiff test for Berrios, who has been susceptible to the long ball this year by coughing up four home runs.
  • Former Blue Jay Whit Merrifield is in a classic revenge spot here against his former club and he’s had success against Berrios in the past, posting a .354 average and .936 OPS in 48 career at-bats against him. That’s a decent sample size, so I’d consider the over on his hits and/or total bases props, if he’s in the starting lineup. Merrifield isn’t an everyday player for the Phillies, so you won’t find any player props listed for him at bet365 unless his name is in the starting lineup later Tuesday.
  • Blue Jays designated hitter Justin Turner has raked against lefties this season, slashing an outstanding .455/.480/.818 with a homer and seven RBIs in 22 at-bats. He’s a steep -275 to get a single hit, but you can grab him at +210 to record over 1.5 hits or +105 for over 1.5 total bases. Turner has never previously faced Sanchez.

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