Orioles vs Blue Jays 08/30/21 – Odds and MLB Betting Trends

The Toronto Blue Jays’ moneyline value is about as paltry as their recent run production, which means there is more upside in focusing on totals and guessing whether they can pounce on the lowest-rated pitching staff in baseball. The Blue Jays are -285 home favorites and the Baltimore Orioles are +235 away underdogs with a 9.5-run total on the MLB odds for Monday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com (how the OVER/UNDER works).

The Blue Jays are 13-6 this season when they dip below -200 as a home favorite at online betting sites and the total has finished UNDER in six of the last eight such matchups. They are 10-4 in their last 14 games against the Orioles as a home favorite. The Orioles are 2-13 in their last 15 games as a road underdog of +180 or more, with the OVER hitting eight times.

The Orioles have a 40-89 overall record, including a 3-22 mark so far in August. Offensively, they are 26th in runs per game (4.11) and 20th in OPS (.710) among the 30 teams in MLB. However, Ryan Mountcastle (1.061 OPS in August), Anthony Santander (1.007) and Jorge Mateo (.886) are each having decent months offensively.

Baltimore’s pitching staff has both the 30th-ranked starter ERA (6.23) and 30th-ranked reliever ERA (5.36). Their ERA in August (7.45) is also 30th in MLB.

The Blue Jays’ 68-61 record includes a 14-13 mark so far in August. Toronto is sixth in runs per game (4.98) and second in OPS (.776), but have scored three or fewer runs in nine of their last 10 matchups. With George Springer (ankle) and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. struggling by his standard, the Blue Jays have relied on Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (.896 OPS this month), Teoscar Hernández (.892), Corey Dickerson (.856) and Marcus Semien (.847) to carry them this month.

On the mound, Toronto has the ninth-best starting pitcher ERA (3.79) and 14th-ranked reliever ERA (4.04). Since Aug. 1, the Blue Jays have the ninth-best ERA (3.67).

Lefthander Robbie Ray (9-5, 2.72 ERA, 11.3 strikeouts per nine innings) will start on Monday, opposite Orioles rookie righthander Chris Ellis (1-0, 3.86 ERA, 12.9 SO/9). Ray has a career 5.79 ERA over 14 innings against the Orioles, and his teams are 11-6 in his last 17 home-favorite starts with an 8-8-1 split on the totals. Ellis is making just his second career start and first against Toronto.

Lefthander Hyun Jin Ryu (12-7, 3.88 ERA, 7.2 SO/9) will start Tuesday, while fellow lefty Keegan Akin (1-8, 7.26 ERA, 8.0 SO/9) will start for the Orioles. Ryu has a career 2.95 ERA over 36.2 innings against the Orioles. Fourteen of Ryu’s last 20 home-favorite starts have finished OVER. Akin has a career 7.71 ERA in 11.2 innings against the Blue Jays. The Orioles are 2-9 as underdogs on the road when he starts, with the OVER hitting in seven of those 11 matchups.

Lefthander Steven Matz (10-7, 3.81 ERA,  8.5 SO/9) will start Wednesday, while the Orioles will counter with righty Matt Harvey (6-14, 6.18 ERA,  7.0 SO/9). The Blue Jays are 3-7 as home favorites this season when Matz starts, with the OVER hitting seven times. He lasted only four innings in his first career start against Baltimore earlier this season. Harvey has a career 3.33 ERA in 20.2 innings versus the Blue Jays. His teams are 8-12 in the last 20 games he started when his club was an underdog on the road, and the OVER has hit in nine of the last 12 such matchups.

The Blue Jays have an off-day on Thursday before beginning a three-game home  series against the Oakland Athletics.