Red Sox vs Blue Jays 08/06/21 – Odds and MLB Betting Trends

Both teams’ trends suggest the Toronto Blue Jays are in a position to amend a home record against a division rival that has taken a beating during rebuildings and a forced relocation. The Blue Jays are -132 home favorites and the Boston Red Sox are +112 underdogs with a 9.0-run total on the MLB odds for Friday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com (how the moneyline works).

For the first time since 2016, the Blue Jays are a home favorite against the Red Sox at the Rogers Centre in a matchup where both teams have records above .500. Since 2017, Toronto is just 3-11 as a home favorite against Boston. However, the Blue Jays are 14-6 in their last 20 games as a home favorite, with a 9-9-2 OVER/UNDER split at sports betting sites. The Red Sox are 9-11 in their last 20 games as an underdog on the road, including a 2-8 record in their last 10 such matchups. The total has gone OVER in 14 of Boston’s last 20 away-underdog matchups.

The Red Sox have a 64-46 record and hold the first wild card position in the American League. They are MLB’s eighth-highest scoring team at 4.88 runs per game, and their .758 OPS ranks sixth. Since the all-star break, Boston’s top three batters have been Enrique Hernández (1.051 OPS), Rafael Devers (1.002) and Hunter Renfroe (.773).

Boston is 20th in starting pitcher ERA (4.59) and sixth in reliever ERA (3.59). They are 17th in post-all-star break ERA (4.59).

The Blue Jays have a 57-49 record. They are MLB’s third-highest scoring team at 5.17 runs per game and their .785 OPS is first overall. George Springer (1.327 OPS since July 16), Teoscar Hernández (.952) and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (.933), who was hit on the left wrist by a pitch against Cleveland on Thursday, have been Toronto’s three most productive hitters since the all-star break.

On the mound, Toronto is ninth in starting pitcher ERA (3.74) and 15th in reliever ERA (4.07). They have the fourth-best ERA (3.38) since the all-star break.

Rookie righthander Alek Manoah (3-1, 2.47 ERA, 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings) will start in Friday’s matchup opposite Boston righthander Nathan Eovaldi (9-6, 3.71 ERA, 8.9 SO/9). The Blue Jays are 6-3 when Manoah starts this season, and the total has gone UNDER in his last two outings. Manoah held the Red Sox to one run over six innings in his first outing against them this season. Eovaldi’s teams are 4-11 in his last 15 away-underdog starts, with the total going UNDER nine times. Eovaldi has a 3.63 ERA in 44.2 career innings against the Blue Jays.

Lefthander Robbie Ray (9-5, 3.04 ERA, 11.1 SO/9) will start in the first matchup on Saturday, opposite Boston righthander Nick Pivetta (8-5, 4.57 ERA, 10.1 SO/9). Ray’s teams are 12-8 in his last 20 starts at home with the OVER hitting 12 times, and he has a 4.98 career ERA in 21.2 innings against Boston. The Red Sox are 2-4 in Pivetta’s last six starts on the road, with the total going UNDER five times. Pivetta also has a 6.82 career ERA in 33 innings against Toronto.

Righthander José Berríos (8-5, 3.31 ERA, 9.4  SO/9) will start in Saturday’s second matchup, while rookie righthander Tanner Houck (0-2, 2.45 ERA, 12.3 SO/9) will start for Boston. Berríos has a 4.93 ERA in 34.2 innings against Boston, but his teams are 7-3 in his last 10 home starts and the total has gone UNDER in five of the last six. Houck, who had seven strikeouts across four innings of one-run pitching against the Blue Jays on July 28, has helped Boston go 5-2 in his seven career starts. Five of those matchups went UNDER.

Lefthander Hyun Jin Ryu (11-5, 3.22 ERA, 7.5 SO/9) will start in Sunday’s matchup, while righthander Garrett Richards (6-7, 5.21 ERA, 7.3  SO/9) will start for Boston. Ryu has a 2.40 career ERA in 30 innings against Boston, and his teams are 14-6 over his 20 home-favorite starts with the OVER hitting 13 times. The Red Sox are 6-4 in Richards’s last 10 away-underdog starts, and the last five have finished OVER. Richards also has a lifetime 5.60 ERA against the Blue Jays in 62.2 innings.

The Blue Jays have a travel day on Monday before a three-game road series against the Los Angeles Angels.