Royals vs Blue Jays 07/30/21 – Odds and MLB Betting Trends

How well the Toronto Blue Jays adapt to playing at Rogers Centre is a wild card, but there is some certainty with respect to the road struggles of their first opponent. The Blue Jays are -205 home favorites and the Kansas City Royals are +175 road underdogs with a 10.5-run total on the MLB odds for Friday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

The Blue Jays, who are playing their first game in Toronto since September 2019, are 11-4 in their last 15 home games when they closed below -175 on the moneyline (how the moneyline works). The total has gone OVER in nine of those 15 matchups. They are also 15-5 in their last 20 regular-season games against the Royals, although the last such matchup was on July 1, 2019. The Royals are 6-14 in their last 20 away games as an underdog of +150 or more, with eight of the last 10 such matchups finishing OVER at betting sites.

The Royals have a 45-56 record. They are 23rd among the 30 MLB teams in offense at 4.19 runs per game, and rank 22nd in OPS (.700). Since the all-star break, Jorge Soler (1.181 OPS since July 16), Hunter Dozier (.948) and Salvador Pérez (.920) have been Kansas City’s top three batters. The Royals are 26th in starting pitcher ERA (5.13) and 23rd in reliever ERA (4.68).

The Blue Jays have a 51-48 record. They are MLB’s second-highest scoring team at 5.18 runs per game, and rank first in OPS (.785). George Springer (1.085 OPS since July 16), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1.005) and Teoscar Hernández (.922) have been Toronto’s three top three batters since the all-star break.. On the mound, the Blue Jays are 12th in starting pitcher ERA (3.97) and 14th in reliever ERA (4.05).

Righthander Ross Stripling (3-6, 4.84 ERA, 9.5 SO/9) will start on Friday opposite Royals rookie lefthander Daniel Lynch (1-2, 7.88 ERA, 6.2 SO/9). Stripling’s teams are 9-7 over his last 16 home starts when his team was favored, with the total going UNDER in four of the last seven. Lynch is making just his fifth MLB start, and the Royals are 0-2 as an underdog when he starts, with the OVER hitting in both.

Rookie righthander Alek Manoah (2-1, 2.90 ERA, 11.6 SO/9) will start on Saturday, opposite Royals lefthander Mike Minor (8-8, 5.32 ERA, 8.7 SO/9). Manoah, who is coming off of the injured list after suffering a right back contusion, will be making his first start in over three weeks. The Blue Jays are 5-3 in Manoah’s eight career starts, but the total has gone OVER in three of the last four. Minor has a 2.59 ERA over 41.2 career innings against the Blue Jays, and his teams are 7-8 in his last 15 away starts with the total going UNDER nine times.

The Blue Jays have not formally announced their starting pitcher for Sunday’s matchup, since lefthanders Steven Matz and Robbie Ray are both recovering after starting in a doubleheader on Wednesday. Righthander Brad Keller (7-9, 5.55 ERA, 7.7 SO/9) will start for the Royals. Keller has a 5.49 ERA in 19.2 career innings against the Blue Jays, and the Royals are 6-12 in his last 18 starts on the road with the total going UNDER 11 times.

The Blue Jays have an off-day on Thursday before beginning a three-game road series against the New York Mets.