Tigers vs Blue Jays 08/20/21 – Odds and MLB Betting Trends

The Toronto Blue Jays will likely need their top starting pitchers to be near their peak as they head into a trap series against an opponent that has delivered betting value when it is a significant underdog. The Blue Jays are -260 home favorites and the Detroit Tigers are +220 underdogs with a 9.5-run total on the MLB odds for Friday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com (how the OVER/UNDER works).

The Blue Jays are 15-5 in their last 20 home games as a favorite of -200 or farther into minus money at sports betting sites, and the total has gone UNDER in only six of those contests. They are 10-4 in their last 14 home games against AL Central opponents, but six of the last nine such matchups have finished UNDER, with two pushes. The Tigers are 8-12 in their last 20 away games as an underdog of +150 or more, with the OVER hitting 13 times. The Tigers are also 10-10 in their last 20 away games against AL East opponents, with an identical 10-10 split in the totals.

The Tigers have a 58-65 record, but are a respectable 18-14 since the all-star break. Offensively, they rank 18th in runs per game (4.40) and 19th in OPS (.708) among the 30 MLB teams. So far in the second half, Detroit’s top three hitters are Jeimer Candelario (.939 OPS since July 16), Robbie Grossman (.877) and Miguel Cabrera (.827). Cabrera needs one home run for 500 in his career, but the future hall of famer’s career .760 OPS in Rogers Centre is his second-lowest in any ballpark where he has played at least 35 games.

On the mound, the Tigers’ starting pitcher ERA (4.27) ranks 14th in MLB and they are 26th in reliever ERA (4.92). They do have the 12th-best overall ERA (4.04) so far in the second half of the season.

The Blue Jays have a 63-56 record, and are also 18-14 so far in the second half. They are fourth in runs per game (5.17) and first in OPS (.787). With George Springer (ankle) on the injured list, Toronto’s three hottest healthy hitters are Teoscar Hernández (1.115 OPS since the all-star break), Corey Dickerson (.872) and Marcus Semien (.848).

Toronto is ninth in starting pitcher ERA (3.85) and 16th in reliever ERA (4.16). The pitching staff ranks 11th in ERA (3.96) since the all-star break.

Lefthander Robbie Ray (9-5, 2.88 ERA, 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings) will start for the Blue Jays on Friday, while Tigers lefty Tyler Alexander (2-2, 4.57 ERA, 7.3 SO/9) will make his first career start in Toronto. Ray, who has only one career appearance against Detroit, has helped his teams go 12-8 in his last 20 home-favorite starts. The total has gone UNDER in five of the last eight. The Tigers are 3-4 as an away underdog when Alexander starts, and the total has gone UNDER four times.

Lefthander Hyun Jin Ryu (11-6, 3.72 ERA, 7.2 SO/9) will start on Saturday, opposite Tigers righthander Wily Peralta (3-2, 3.70 ERA, 5.9 SO/9). Ryu’s teams are 14-6 in his last 20 home-favorite starts, but the OVER has hit in 14 of those matchups. Ryu also has an 8.59 ERA in 7.1 career innings against Detroit, all before he joined the Blue Jays. The Tigers are 3-3 as road underdogs with Peralta starting, and five of those matchups have finished OVER. Peralta has a 4.58 ERA in 17.2 innings against the Blue Jays.

Lefthander Steven Matz (10-7, 4.08 ERA, 9.2 SO/9) will start on Sunday, while righthander Drew Hutchison (0-1, 10.80 ERA, 5.4 SO/9), who is an ex-Blue Jay, will make his second start of the season for the Tigers. Matz’s teams are 3-10 in his last 13 home starts with the OVER hitting nine times, and he has never faced the Tigers. Hutchinson has spent most of the last three seasons in the minor leagues.

The Blue Jays start next week at home with a four-game series against the Chicago White Sox.