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Breaking down what Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s extension means for the future of the Blue Jays’ front office
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Photo credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports
Veronica Chung
Apr 10, 2025, 07:00 EDTUpdated: Apr 10, 2025, 06:47 EDT
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The Blue Jays made a historic move yesterday by officially signing a 14-year, $500-million extension with All-Star first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. From a practical perspective, this contract boasts a ton of risk from both a year and a financial perspective and depending on who you ask, you will hear a different opinion on the signing. Betting on a first baseman long-term is undoubtedly a risky move because there’s so much that could go wrong down the road.
But from Toronto’s front office point of view, this deal was undoubtedly a slam dunk regardless of how the extension ages from an on-the-field basis and a PR perspective. 
Before agreeing to an extension with a 26-year-old first baseman, Toronto’s front office became known as one of the more risk-averse groups compared to others across the league, sticking to their valuations whenever possible. Ironically, this front office – led by president and CEO Mark Shapiro and general manager Ross Atkins – also made some viable bids on superstar free agents like Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto, showcasing its willingness to come out of their comfort zone. 
There have been many cases in which the current front office has been betting on veteran talent to try and make a strong core. The José Berríos trade and extension, as well as the Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt signings, are prime examples of the front office using prospects to supplement the likes of Guerrero and Bo Bichette. Trading for reliever Jordan Hicks and utilityman Whit Merrifield for prospect capital over the past few years were also a solid examples of the front office’s interest in creating a winning team even if the team came short. 
Given that Rogers Communications has given the green light for the Jays to spend in recent years, extending a top talent like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. seemed consistent with this front office’s narrative, even if it took some back-and-forth to get to the finish line. But the truth was that Shapiro and Atkins didn’t have many wins under their belts without extending the Montreal product. The Blue Jays haven’t recorded any playoff wins since 2016 and were considered one of the biggest disappointments of the year when they bottomed out in the 2024 season. From a free agency side, they have changed the narrative of players willing to sign with Toronto who aren’t fading superstars, but that didn’t translate to wins on the field. 
After a series of brutal frustrations, the only real way to rebuild trust was to extend a talent like Guerrero Jr. The fact of the matter was that Toronto was running out of time to contend and was heading towards a reluctant rebuild without a cornerstone player on its roster. Therefore, reaching an extension with the first baseman was the first step for the front office to reignite the passion and interest for fans and players alike while showing rival teams that the Jays had some stability moving forward.  
For many fans, there wasn’t much to root for when they saw that the front office struggled to come to terms with Vladdy on an extension this past winter and into spring training. Without him or Bo Bichette locked up, the fanbase fully understood that there wasn’t much going on for the future of this franchise. Theoretically, the front office could have taken a risk and run with the rebuild once more, but that was even more of a ‘big if’ because rebuilds take years in the current MLB draft system, and there was an unlikely chance that the current regime would get a second opportunity to run it back. Shapiro and Atkins knew an extension was the move they had to make to let everyone around the league know about the team’s future trajectory. 
The extension put both Guerrero and the Blue Jays in the spotlight again, and the stakes are now even higher since the front office is committed to creating a successful contender while also getting off to a strong start to the year. To come out of this deal with another win, Toronto now has to find ways to get to playing October baseball and win a playoff game. That may be a very low bar for a team with big aspirations, but with the recent lack of wins, considering they played in the 2020, 2022, and 2023 Wild Card rounds, getting there would be the next best thing the Blue Jays could achieve. 
Should the team flop again and not reach the playoff stage or win any playoff games in 2025 and 2026, there will be a great reckoning and potential shakeup at the top, likely sooner rather than later. Atkin’s contract expires at the end of 2026 – it will be incredibly difficult for the executive to keep his job if Toronto continues its yips with the playoffs. Many thought he would be let go last year, but that didn’t come through, with the common knowledge being that he was on the hot seat this year to find playoff success. Failure to do so with the current team he has assembled might be the last straw when it comes to his tenure, even with the Guerrero extension in tow. 
Toronto’s front office most definitely put some brownie points on the board with the Guerrero extension, both for ownership and the fan base. Although struggles can be detrimental to the team’s reputation, if the Blue Jays can’t find a way to make the postseason even after extending Guerrero and bringing in the recent crop of free agents, is change still needed at the top? That is a question that will be answered later this year, heavily dependent on where Toronto can finish in the standings. 

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