This current Toronto Blue Jays’ regime has shown they’re not afraid to shop at the top of the market for starting pitching. Whether it was signing Hyun-Jin Ryu to an $80 million deal during the 2019/2020 offseason, extending Jose Berrios to a $131 million deal or signing Kevin Gausman to a $110 million deal in 2021, general manager Ross Atkins sees value in paying top dollar for starting pitchers, and for the most part, these contracts have panned out well for the Blue Jays so far.

Which is why it shouldn’t be all that surprising the Blue Jays are once again in the market for frontline starters.

The difference this time around is there are bigger issues to address on this team. But there are many ways to improve a team, and adding a number one starter is one way (albeit an unorthodox one) for the Blue Jays to improve their win total in 2025 and beyond.

And there are three big fish out there in the free-agent starting pitching pond: Corbin Burnes, Max Fried and Blake Snell. Ken Rosenthal reported the Blue Jays were interested in all three starters, and all three would be welcome additions to Toronto’s starting rotation.

But which starting pitcher makes the most sense for the Blue Jays not just for this window of contention, but the next one as well? Let’s break down the cases for Burnes, Fried and Snell in a Blue Jays uniform.

Burnes is belle of the ball for free agent starting pitchers, and former Cy Young Award winners rarely become available on the open market. After spending the first six seasons of his career with the Milwaukee Brewers, Burnes continued his dominance this past year with the Baltimore Orioles.

The 30-year-old made a seamless transition over to the junior circuit and stepped up as the Orioles’ ace, throwing in the highly competitive American League East. He trimmed his walk rate to a minuscule 6.1%, but his 23.1% strikeout rate was among the lowest of his seven-year career.

Burnes had 22 quality starts in 32 games, tied for the second most quality starts in the big leagues in 2024. Next to Zach Wheeler and Tarik Skubal, Burnes was one of the most reliable starters this past season.

Burnes is looking to get paid like a perennial Cy Young contender, but the million-dollar question is whether his best days are behind him are not. He’s still a very good starting pitcher, but his strikeout numbers have trended downward since his breakout 2021 season with the Brewers.

As great as it would be to sign the best-starting pitcher on the market, he may be out of Toronto’s price range if Burnes is pushing $200+ million. And with Scott Boras as his agent, he’ll be ruthlessly pursuing every dollar for his client.

Fried was one of the few fixtures on the Atlanta Braves who didn’t succumb to a season-ending injury in 2024. Injuries plagued him in 2023, but Fried stepped up in a big way this past season after the Braves lost Spencer Strider after UCL surgery.

Armed with seven different pitches, Fried has plus stuff on four of those pitches in his arsenal. That’s a deadly repertoire to work with, and Chris Bassitt can relate when it comes to the number of pitches at a starter’s disposal.

Fried’s 3.25 ERA was in line with his 3.33 FIP, so he’s pitched true to his ability for the bulk of his career. The strikeout totals aren’t as flashy as the other guys on this list, but the left-hander still brings the heat with a fastball averaging close to 94 MPH and a strikeout rate of 23.2%. His calling is his ground-ball rate, ranking in the 96th percentile last season and boasting a career 53.7% ground-ball rate.

Because he has the most recent struggles with injuries, Fried looks to be the biggest “bargain” amongst this trio of starters. Of the top-tier starting pitchers available, even with the recent injury in 2023, Fried appears to have the most upside and stability on a long-term deal.

Now this is where things get interesting. Snell had a stellar second half of the season, punctuated by a no-hitter on August 2. The left-hander got buried early in the season, but returned to form with a 15 strikeout performance on July 27 and never looked back.

No starting pitcher was hotter in the second half than Snell, but his first-half performance left lingering questions about his long-term viability. However, that may have been chalked up to his late start in Spring Training, which has plagued starting pitchers time and time again.

Snell may command a shorter-term deal than Burnes and Fried but will seek a higher AAV than his cohorts. That may work in favour of the Blue Jays who should have plenty to spend this offseason.

In terms of impact starters out of the gate who would burn the brightest in a short stint, Snell is your guy. If (and it’s a big if) a team gets the same Snell for the full 2025 as they got in the second half of 2024, he’s a Cy Young candidate. As someone who’s done it before, Snell also has an elite track record.

The one knock against him is despite the electric stuff, he throws a lot of pitches per inning, which typically limits him to five or six innings per start. He’s not a big-quality start guy and seldom throws more than 100 pitches in an outing.

If the Blue Jays were a little more confident in their bullpen or were prioritizing reliever acquisitions, they could feel a little more confident with a high strikeout/low innings starter like Snell.

You could make a viable case for all three starting pitchers. Burnes is the highest-quality starting pitcher available but will be the most expensive of the bunch. Snell was dominant in the second half of 2024 and the best pitcher in the NL in 2023.

Call it a case of Goldilocks, but Fried checks all the boxes for the Blue Jays without blowing their entire offseason budget in one fell swoop. You’re getting a solid left-handed starter who does a decent job of limiting walks, and keeping the ball on the ground while averaging six innings per start. Fried would be a nice balance to a right-handed heavy starting rotation for the Blue Jays and would slot in with Jose Berrios and Kevin Gausman as one of the best starting pitching trios in the American League.

Aside from that injury-shortened campaign in 2023, Fried has been solid dating back to 2020 and none of his advanced or peripheral metrics are trending in the wrong direction. He’s been steady across the board, which makes him arguably a safer option over Burnes and Snell.

If the Blue Jays only have one proverbial bullet in the chamber to spend this offseason, if it’s not for Juan Soto’s services, then signing Fried might be the next-best bet.