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Crucial pivots can benefit Max Scherzer and the Blue Jays moving forward
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Photo credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
Nick Prasad
Apr 8, 2025, 09:00 EDTUpdated: Apr 8, 2025, 06:43 EDT
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The season is in full swing, and there’s already much to discuss with the Toronto Blue Jays. The club recently placed veteran right-hander Max Scherzer on the 15-day injured list. His 2025 debut as a Blue Jay was not the greatest, as he had to leave early due to a thumb issue, and his usage in Toronto will be up for debate. 
Scherzer’s pre-game routine displayed as regimented and sequential. He progressed in his bullpen, focusing on spots and command; everything appeared comfortable. The first inning was quite rough. His second pitch of the ball game was launched straight-away center field by Colton Cowser for a lead-off home run. A couple of batters later, Jordan Westburg followed suit with a longball of his own. Scherzer’s outing lasted a total of three innings, allowing three hits, two earned-runs.
The right-hander settled in after the first inning, however, discomfort led to an early exit, which led to the IL stint. Scherzer believes that this injury is related to the thumb, and it has been prolonged since spring training and is a pre-existing injury coming into his tenure with the Jays. 
Eventually, this will heal enough that he’ll be back to being operable. The Blue Jays face a more long-term concern in how to use Scherzer, based on his game endurance. Secondly, how does Scherzer find success? Find where he once was and how to trek back to that. 

Scherzer’s load management and usage with the Blue Jays

We’ve seen load management executed around a lot of sports to ensure teams get the best version of their player in the allotted playing time – the NBA had to even implement a rule so players didn’t sit when they should be on the court. The positive of being a starting pitcher is the minimum four days of rest you get after a start. 
In 2016 and 2018, Scherzer led the league in innings pitched, with 228 and 1/3 and 220 and 2/3, respectively. Scherzer has 14 years of offering 130-plus innings in a season. The right-hander is approaching 40 years of age and is starting to face issues that come with such a long career. Scherzer had an offseason back surgery following the 2023 season. He then suffered from a nerve issue, hamstring problems, and arm fatigue in his last year with the Rangers. 
His current issue is in relation to his thumb. Injury and aging seem to be the reasons for a drastic decline in innings pitched. Moving forward, it’s tough to speculate just how many innings he will pitch because his injury timeline is still in the air, but ~60-80 innings of work seems like a comfortable area of work for Scherzer for the rest of the season. 
The Jays will need to keep him at short range during the season and keep his innings of work per game between three to five maximum unless he his limiting the counts. This will cause strain to the bullpen but will also allow the right-hander to offer his best stuff in a shorter instance, maintaining his health for the next starts. 
The Blue Jays will need to supplement a long-reliever or multiple short-relievers to fill such a task.

Velocity and Metrics 

Scherzer’s metrics are quite noticeable on the field, specifically his velocity. He utilizes five pitch options in his repertoire, led by a four-seam fastball. The fastball accounted for 42.2% of his pitch usage last year, which is a problem moving forward. Scherzer is a crafty arm with the ability to work his options creatively. His fastball is well commanded, but a fastball located in the zone at an average of 92 mph is a recipe for disaster. 
The 2008 version of Scherzer was averaging in the 95 MPH range, maxing out around 97-98 mph. After his 2019 season began, the decline of his fastball at -0.1 mph to -0.5 mph. He’s gone from a 94.3 mph average to a 91.9, struggling to at least stay there as he enters the twilight of his career. 
All good things come to an end, and his “heater” may need to take a backseat with regard to reliability. Working the fastball low and to get ahead makes sense, but an emergency ‘get me over’ is a suicide mission. As it stands, the fastball generates the second least put-away percentage per season. The batting average against it is usually high with the fastball due to the usage amount. However, the changeup and curveball batting averages could match that. The launch angle for the fastball also holds a higher value.
The fastball won’t be gaining any velocity or deceptive traits that it once had. 

Where does Scherzer pivot to?

If Scherzer has a healthy season beyond his current setback, he’ll need to make some changes.
His fastball needs to continue to be commanded well and used with confidence. However, it should not be depended on like it once was. The righty starter can’t overuse his slider, as this is his clear put-away pitch. In 2024, the slider had a 22.4% put-away mark, along with 13 strikeouts, the most of all of his pitch options. The slider remains his out-pitch. 
The runner-up would be the cutter. If he can locate and command the cutter consistently, he’ll find fewer ways to get hurt offensively. It does not carry a great strikeout value but will lead to roll-over groundouts more than anything. 
Last season, his cutter recorded a 29.7-inch vertical drop with a 6.8-inch horizontal break. This pitch will catch the zone, handcuff hitters, and imprison batters early on. Scherzer’s work-around is crucial for his longevity in 2025. His health is the first step.

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