With the offseason now officially upon us, it remains to be seen which dominos will fall as the Blue Jays prepare to compete in 2025. The team can take several directions to overhaul the roster, with Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith recently noting that the team has identified corner outfield, second base, and third base as the biggest priorities from a position player standpoint.

Signing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to a long-term contract remains a top priority as well while the team has also been attached to prized free agent Juan Soto early out of the gate. Most Blue Jays fans are understandably skeptical over the likelihood of Soto choosing to come to Toronto, but there’s at least a chance that the club will go all-in after missing out on Shohei Ohtani last year. It’s unclear whether the Blue Jays would add an outfielder before Soto’s decision has been made, but there are several options out there if (and let’s face it, when) the Dominican slugger decides to sign elsewhere.

After breaking out in 2024 at the age of 31, Jurickson Profar represents an intriguing and somewhat under-the-radar addition that could help the team in 2025 and beyond. He enters free agency after the San Diego Padres decided not to extend him a qualifying offer.

It’s not often that a player breaks out in their 11th big league season but that’s exactly what Profar did in 2024. After three lacklustre years with the Padres from 2020-22, Profar joined the Rockies in 2023 before being released towards the end of the season. The Curacao-born outfielder was reunited with the Padres at the end of 2023 on a minor league deal, setting him up for a chance at playing time right out of the gate in 2024 after re-signing with the club on a one-year deal.

Profar put up career numbers across the board, including hits (158), home runs (24), OPS (.839), and wRC+ (139). The 6’0″ 190-pounder typically slotted second or third in a deep Padres lineup, showing that he had the full trust of manager Mike Shildt ahead of some of the big bats. The most impressive part of the switch-hitter’s game was how selective he was at the plate, leading to high walk and low strikeout totals. He was right around the 90th percentile in xOBA, xBA, Chase%, Whiff%, K%, and BB%. His .302 BABIP was the highest mark of his career, but not so high as to suggest that he was getting lucky on balls hit in play.

After breaking into the big leagues as a middle infielder, Profar was used as a utility player up until he joined the Padres organization in 2020.  He has experience playing every infield position, although poor defensive numbers have made him more of an ‘outfielder only’  type in recent years. He played left field exclusively in 2024, grading out as a below-average defender.

As is true with most guys that are or were once seen as utility types, Profar was once considered a speedy runner, despite never producing high stolen base numbers. At 31 years old, that is no longer the case, as Baseball Savant placed him in the 26th percentile in sprint speed last year. Despite this, he was able to swipe 10 bags on the season.

Given his age and mediocre numbers up until 2024, it’s not so clear what kind of market there will be for the former Padre. Spotrac predicts that he will garner a 3-year, $38 million deal, while Ben Clemens of Fangraphs speculates that he could sign for 3 years and $45 million. The final numbers may depend on what kind of money other free-agent outfielders like Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernández sign for this offseason but a multi-year deal is all but a certainty for the 2024 All-Star.

The Blue Jays need some more pop in 2025 and Profar can help provide that power. Toronto ranked 26th in the Major Leagues in home runs last season, with Guerrero Jr. the only Jay to top 20 homers. Although he hit 24-round trippers last year, Profar is not your typical power hitter as a smaller guy. Despite that, his ability to run into one now and again coupled with his on-base skills means he could provide some much-needed lineup protection around Guerrero Jr.

Signing Profar would likely be an underwhelming addition to the Blue Jays fan base. Profar is probably best viewed as a solid piece of the puzzle (like he was in San Diego), as opposed to a bat that can change this lineup on his own like Soto or Pete Alonso. Besides Soto and Santander, the free-agent outfield class lacks many other true difference-makers.

Toronto’s interest could come down to the length of the contract. If forced to hand out a three-year deal to Profar, they may decide on giving that contract to a younger player like Tyler O’Neill. With George Springer’s contract already looking rough for the Jays, they may elect not to tie up money in another aging outfielder. Another thing to consider is the impending arrival of Toronto’s 2024 Minor League Player of the Year Alan Roden, who is likely to make his MLB debut in 2025 and be in the club’s outfield plans come 2026.

The Blue Jays would likely be much more likely to ink a deal with Profar if the contract spanned two years instead of three, which could end up deciding if this happens or not. Given the need to make a splash this off-season, look for Profar to become a Blue Jay only if it’s in addition to another significant offensive player joining the fold as well.