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How Blue Jays’ bats can wear out the Dodgers’ formidable rotation
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Photo credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images
Ian Finlayson
Oct 24, 2025, 11:30 EDTUpdated: Oct 24, 2025, 11:08 EDT
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As the shock of George Springer’s decisive seventh-inning drive in Game 7 of the ALCS slowly wore off, reality set in: The Toronto Blue Jays are in the World Series for the first time since 1993. 
And now, if they manage to win four games before the Los Angeles Dodgers, they’ll win the whole damn thing. The question is, how do they do it? 
While there are plenty of compelling narratives in this World Series, there is also an equally intriguing tactical and statistical storyline at play, and one that may be the key to a World Series title coming north of the border.  
The Dodgers-Blue Jays matchup has been billed as a David and Goliath story, but what if it’s really the team that gets the most strikeouts against the team that never strikes out?  
The Dodgers’ formidable rotation has defined their postseason success so far. But the Blue Jays have also had tremendous success solving the game’s best pitchers this year. So, if there’s one strategic angle to watch in this series, it’s how the Blue Jays’ lineup wears down the Dodgers starters.  
They’re well equipped to do it. The Blue Jays ranked third in MLB in the percentage of pitches fouled off this season (18.9%). They’ve either gotten to or ousted a laundry list of aces. Their 78.5% contact rate and 17.8% strikeout rate were both the best in baseball. 
The Blue Jays haven’t had to rely on their contact so far in the postseason, as the other areas of their offence have risen to their level. Toronto leads most October power stats by a wide margin, including SLG (.523) and ISO (.227), and their 20 home runs are tied for first with the recently dispatched Seattle Mariners. Spectacularly, they’ve done this while hitting for a much higher average (.296) and recording a lower strikeout rate (14.8%) against the best pitching MLB has to offer.  
In contrast, Dodgers starters hold a 1.40 ERA, have struck out 81 and walked only 19 over 64.1 postseason innings. They’ve allowed only two home runs. Blake Snell, who’s set to take the ball in Game 1, struck out 10 over eight innings of one-hit ball against the similarly contact-oriented Milwaukee Brewers. 
Toronto’s low strikeout rate and high contact rate are of particular interest here. The Dodgers are reliant on these strikeouts because their defence is markedly average. According to Statcast, it ranked 17th in MLB with a neutral run value of zero. The Blue Jays led the majors with a plus-45. It may not be Yankee-level bad, but facing more balls in play could spell trouble for the Dodgers’ mediocre fielders.  
If the Blue Jays aren’t able to put the ball in play against the Dodgers’ gauntlet of aces and do go down swinging, plan B should be to just get the starters out of the game. L.A. had a remarkable swing from last postseason, when it used four bullpen days and starters pitched only 42% of their innings en route to a World Series title. This October, starters have thrown 62% of their innings, or 64.1 innings total, both No.1 in MLB. Snell and Yoshinobu Yamamoto covering 17-of-18 innings in Games 1 and 2 of the NLCS is Exhibit A. Yamamoto’s complete game was the first in the postseason since Justin Verlander in 2017. 
The Blue Jays have managed to mash excellent starters throughout the playoffs, including Max Fried, Carlos Rodon, Logan Gilbert and George Kirby. Those four starters – arguably the best four Toronto has seen this postseason – have a 12.39 ERA, 2.31 WHIP and pitched only 20.1 innings over six starts against the Blue Jays. Yet even when they are struggling to score runs against elite starting pitching, the Blue Jays have often managed to exhaust them.  
Take their successful outings against each League’s Cy Young frontrunner, Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes, as examples.  
The Blue Jays mustered five hits off Skenes, scored two runs, battled and had him out after six. This included a couple of hard–hit balls off his fastball, which is something they’ve excelled at this season – hitting velocity. They ranked first in both batting average and wOBA and fourth in slugging against pitches thrown at 97 mph or greater. And average fastball velocity goes up in the postseason. 
Skubal did throw six scoreless against Toronto in July, but they bled him for three walks (tied for the second-most in Skubal’s career), fouled off 23 pitches and forced him out of the game after six innings. After the Blue Jays tagged Will Vest and Chase Lee for six runs and won the game. Bo Bichette’s epic 13-pitch walk helped push Skubal to the brink.  
This has to be the formula against the Dodgers. Their bullpen has been amongst the worst in the postseason with a 4.88 ERA and an 18.3% strikeout rate. Their 15.1% walk rate and 3.2% K-BB are dead last. 
Davis Schneider’s only drawn three postseason starts but could factor in heavily in Game 1 against Snell as the strong side of the platoon. His 4.46 pitches per plate appearance ranks first in MLB (minimum 200 PA). Drawn-out at-bats could go a long way in getting Snell out of the game early and bringing the Dodgers’ seemingly gettable bullpen into play. Addison Barger and Nathan Lukes have undesirable splits against lefties, OPS-ing .607 and .697, respectively, so Schneider will almost certainly be in the lineup.  
Still, Snell is only the first step in taking down a dominant Dodgers squad. If the Blue Jays are going to knock off the reigning champs, their bats will have to grind away at opposing pitchers throughout the series, putting balls in play and running up pitch counts.  
The Dodgers’ four-headed monster of a playoff rotation is daunting, but if there’s any team that can slay it, it’s the 2025 Blue Jays.  

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