With the Blue Jays’ spot in the ALCS secured, the attention turns to which opponent they will match up against starting on Sunday in Toronto. The Seattle Mariners host the Detroit Tigers on Friday night in a winner-take-all game five with odds on AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal toeing the slab against Seattle ace George Kirby.

Let’s dive into how the Blue Jays match up against both teams, and which may prove to be the easier path for Toronto to reach their first World Series since 1993.

When you look at the Mariners and Tigers’ overall season numbers, they match up fairly evenly.

Seattle had the narrow win advantage (90 to 87) as well as run differential (+72 to +67). For the majority of the season, Detroit certainly looked like the better team. However, over the last few weeks of the season, things shifted towards the Mariners. Their 17-5 run to end the season snatched the AL West crown from the Houston Astros while earning them a 1st round bye, thanks in large part to Cal Raleigh’s historic 60-homer season.

The Tigers famously blew a 15.5-game lead in the AL Central over the last couple of months, ending the season on a 6-15 stretch that saw them squander away the division title to the Cleveland Guardians. However, you never know when a team’s momentum will shift, and a win tonight will give the Tigers back-to-back series victories in elimination games, perhaps battle-testing them for a showdown with the Jays.

The Blue Jays own winning records against both teams in 2025.

They matched up with Seattle for two six-game series back in April and May, going 4-2. Toronto dropped two of three at home before sweeping the road series in Seattle. There’s only so much you can glean from matchups in the early months of the season, but it is worth noting that the Blue Jays did face off against Luis Castillo (twice), Logan Gilbert, and Bryce Miller, who they’ll surely see again should Seattle advance.

The Blue Jays did battle with the Tigers for seven total games this season, combining to go 4-3. They dropped two out of three in their home series in May before taking three out of four in Detroit after the All-Star break in July. They only saw Skubal in one of those games, with the electric lefthander shutting the Jays out over six innings. The only other pitcher they saw that is likely to start games next round was Jack Flaherty, who allowed just two runs across 11.2 innings.

Seattle ended the season with the 10th-best league-wide OPS, just ahead of the Tigers’ 12th-ranked offensive club. Despite the similar numbers, the team’s offences present different challenges.

The Mariners are a bit more top-heavy, with Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez and Josh Naylor doing most of the heavy lifting. The Tigers more so resemble the Jays, with solid production up and down the lineup. Riley Greene was the only hitter to finish the season with an OPS north of .800 (.806). On the pitching side, the Mariners quartet of Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, and Bryce Miller bests the Tigers’ overall starting options aside from Skubal, although the Tigers actually finished with a slightly better starting pitcher ERA in 2025 (3.91 vs 3.97).

Skubal has pitched in just three games against the Blue Jays in his career, with only one of those starts coming over the last two years when the lefty has been the best pitcher in the American League. The unfamiliarity could play into Detroit’s hands, but they won’t be guaranteed to have the chance to pitch him twice in the ALCS. Since he’s lined up to pitch on Friday night in Seattle, he would be slated to next toe the slab in game three next Wednesday at the earliest.

If the series goes seven games, he would certainly be back on the mound for that game, increasing the urgency for the Blue Jays to take advantage against non-Skubal starters in the series.

Blue Jays fans travel well, with plenty of diehards likely to find a way to attend road games during the ALCS, wherever the games may be.

The logical choice for the most likely road stadium to have Jays representation would be Detroit, since it’s just a four-hour drive away from Toronto. Furthermore, the team has curiously had a tough time selling playoff tickets, failing to crack 40,000 fans in their latest home game on Wednesday. This would surely change given the magnitude of the ALCS, but acquiring tickets and getting to Comerica Park seems to be much more feasible for Jays fans.

Despite being nearly 5,000 kilometres away, the Blue Jays have a strong fanbase in the Pacific Northwest thanks to Seattle’s proximity to Vancouver, B.C.

Every year, fans make the pilgrimage down to Seattle for the annual regular season series between the two clubs, routinely painting T-Mobile Park blue and causing nearby hotel costs to soar. The gravity of the Mariners appearing in their first ALCS since 2001, along with much more expensive ticket costs, should make it much more difficult for Canadian fans to pack the house. It seems that, regardless of the opponent, the Blue Jays will have strong representation in either road city.

The Tigers and Mariners are both worthy contenders that line up fairly evenly, unsurprising considering their series has gone to game five. I would lean towards Detroit as being the slightly more favourable option, especially considering that the Jays will only have to face Skubal once in the first six games of the series.