The Toronto Blue Jays have a handful of needs with the July 31 MLB trade deadline rapidly approaching.  They could look at adding a depth bat to provide manager John Schneider with more options off the bench. However, it’s clear that pitching, both in the starting rotation and the bullpen, is the most pressing area of need.

The starting rotation appears to be the most obvious area in need of an upgrade. The Blue Jays rank in the bottom 10 in Major League Baseball in ERA from the rotation and are lacking a true front-of-the-rotation arm that could confidently be counted on to take the ball in the opening game of a potential postseason series. There’s no denying that need.

That being said, the bullpen still appears to be one more upper-echelon arm short of being truly complete. That’s not to disparage the overall job of the entire bullpen group thus far. The Blue Jays’ relief corps has been one of the biggest reasons that the club has drastically improved its record in one-run games in 2024. Despite the strong results on the whole in the first half, Jeff Hoffman’s performance has become a cause for concern.

Hoffman racked up 22 saves with six wins and 12.13 K/9 in 41 first-half appearances. When Hoffman was at his best, he looked as dominant as any high-leverage reliever in the league. However, there were too many blowups. Hoffman’s ERA sits at 5.03, and he’s allowed as many home runs this season (nine) as the previous two combined. There’s a strong argument to be made that a move out of the ninth inning might be beneficial for both Hoffman and the Blue Jays moving forward.

If the Blue Jays are serious about adding a legitimate difference-maker in the bullpen, Minnesota Twins star closer Jhoan Duran would fit the bill. Duran is one of the most dominant relievers in the league. The 27-year-old owns a 1.66 ERA with 15 saves and 49 strikeouts across 43 1/3 innings this season. Duran’s average fastball velocity of 100.3 miles per hour ranks in the 100th percentile among MLB pitchers, and he routinely makes opposing batters look silly.

Duran also has a unique ability to get opposing hitters to whiff, while also boasting an impressive 69.9% groundball rate, which also ranks in the 100th percentile among all pitchers. It’s pretty rare for a pitcher to throw that hard, miss bats at a high rate, and be able to pile up easy outs on the ground.

Duran has two more years of team control via arbitration following this season, meaning the acquisition cost will be sky high. The ability to get one of baseball’s premier relievers for a possible three postseason runs will likely require a combination of young major-league talent and top-tier prospects. The Blue Jays don’t seem like an obvious fit for the former, but they do have a handful of prospects that could be enticing to the Twins’ front office if they seriously test the trade waters on Duran.

Some might question the idea of parting with high-end prospects for a reliever, when the position historically lends itself to volatility on a year-to-year basis. Duran, however, looks about as consistent and dependable as any reliever. He’s registered an ERA above three only once in four MLB seasons, has a career 11.4 K/9, and a 64% groundball rate in a large sample size of 218 appearances.

The Blue Jays have historically avoided paying exorbitant prices for relief pitching via trade or free agency in the Atkins era. However, they did hand Hoffman a three-year, $33-million contract in the offseason, perhaps indicating a new level of comfort to pay the price required to land high-end relief help.

A leaky bullpen can be the difference between going on a long run in October or crashing out early. While the current relief group may have enough to get things done in October, Atkins and the Blue Jays should be pragmatic about things, and if it’s determined another quality option like Duran is needed, pay that price and let the chips fall where they may down the stretch.

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