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MLB betting preview (April 29): Red Sox vs. Blue Jays predictions

Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Garrett Crochet (35) pitches against the Toronto Blue Jays during the first inning at Fenway Park.

Photo credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images

By Greg Warren

Apr 29, 2025, 11:24 EDT

The Toronto Blue Jays will return to Rogers Centre on Tuesday to kick off a three-game series with the Boston Red Sox following an ugly 1-5 road trip.

Toronto dropped both contests of Sunday’s doubleheader with the New York Yankees to fall two games below .500 entering this six-game homestand, including three games this weekend against the Cleveland Guardians.

Boston, meanwhile, took two of three games from the Guardians in Cleveland over the weekend, scoring 20 runs in the final two games of that series.

Both of these teams had Monday off and will be relatively fresh entering the series. This will be the fifth meeting between these teams this season. Toronto took three of four games from the Red Sox at frosty Fenway Park in early April.

Let’s dive into the game odds for Tuesday’s series opener between the Red Sox and Blue Jays, courtesy of bet365.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays odds

Red Sox moneyline odds	-155
Blue Jays moneyline odds	+130
Runline odds	Red Sox -1.5 (+110), Blue Jays +1.5 (-130)
Game total	Over 7.5 runs (-120), Under 7.5 (+100)
Date/Time	April 29, 7:07 p.m. ET

About the Red Sox (16-14 SU, 15-15 ATS, 14-15-1 o/u)

The Red Sox are two games above .500 entering this series with their American League East rivals, but they have to be slightly disappointed they’re not in better shape after opening the season with a relatively easy schedule, which included seven games against the lowly Chicago White Sox. Boston took just four of those seven matchups with the White Sox, and its schedule will get very difficult in May with several series looming against opponents with current records over .500, including several division leaders.

Bettors should be aware of two things about the Red Sox heading into this series: they love to steal bases, and they commit an ungodly number of errors. They’ve stolen 34 bags (fourth in the majors) on 40 attempts, led by Jarren Duran with nine thefts, but Toronto has done a very good job of limiting the opportunities of baserunners, allowing just 0.50 steals against per game to rank among the league leaders. Boston has also committed the most errors in baseball with 28 through 30 games, although it does rank 11th in team defensive runs saved thanks to some stellar defensive play from the catching (+7) and right field positions (+6).

About the Blue Jays (13-15 SU, 17-11 ATS, 10-18 o/u)

The Blue Jays have gone 10 straight games without scoring more than four runs, their worst streak since 2001 and sixth-longest ever. And now they have to find a way to break out of their funk on Tuesday against one of the elite pitchers in baseball, Garrett Crochet. Only the Kansas City Royals have hit fewer home runs (13) than Toronto’s 15 to this point, with Andres Gimenez leading the team with three blasts. Bo Bichette is still homerless through 28 games, although his .292/.328/.358 slash line is respectable.

Toronto’s pitching staff, the team’s strength through the first couple weeks of the season, has an ugly 5.71 ERA over the past seven days while allowing opponents to hit a lofty .318.

Probable starting pitchers

Boston: LHP Garrett Crochet (2-2, 1.95 ERA, 10.70 K/9)

The Blue Jays might be catching Crochet at the right time, as he’s coming off his worst start of the year against the Seattle Mariners, who tagged him for four runs on five hits over five innings. Boston’s ace also walked five batters and threw 110 pitches in that start, as he continues to struggle with pitch efficiency this season with a 10.1% walk rate. Grochet allowed one earned run on four hits and walked four Toronto batters over 5 2/3 innings on April 8 at Fenway Park.

Toronto: RHP Bowden Francis (2-3, 3.58 ERA, 7.16 K/9)

Francis has been solid through five starts, allowing three earned runs or fewer in each of those outings while doing plenty of damage control.

He’s been very susceptible to the long ball, coughing up six homers to the opposition over 27 2/3 innings while also pitching to an ugly 6.27 Expected ERA, which ranks in the bottom 8% of MLB. Francis has had decent success with his fastball and split finger pitches this season, but his curveball, slider, and sinker have all been hit very hard by the opposition. This will be his first start against Boston this season.

Notable injuries

Pitchers Lucas Giolito (hamstring), Richard Fitts (pectoral), Kutter Crawford (knee), and Patrick Sandoval (elbow) are all on the injured list for the Red Sox. Catcher Connor Wong (finger) and outfielder/designated hitter Masataka Yoshida (shoulder) are also on the shelf.

As for the Blue Jays, pitchers Ryan Burr (shoulder), Erik Swanson (forearm), Nick Sandlin (lat), and Max Scherzer (thumb) are all on the injured list for the Blue Jays. Outfielder Daulton Varsho (shoulder) is nearing a return and could even be activated before today’s game.

Weather

There’s a decent threat of thunderstorms in Toronto throughout the afternoon and early evening hours, so the retractable dome will likely remain closed with severe weather expected.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays betting trends

The under is 9-1 in the past 10 meetings between these teams.
The under is 5-1 in Toronto’s last six games.
The over is 5-1 in Boston’s last six games.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays player prop trends

Crochet has exceeded his strikeout line of 6.5 in three straight starts and four of his last five, averaging eight per game during that span. He’s around +125 to clear that line again on Tuesday.
Francis has recorded five strikeouts or fewer in four of his five starts this season, averaging 4.4 per game during that span. He’s around -165 to record under 5.5 strikeouts.
Red Sox third baseman Alex Bregman has hit safely in eight straight games and is a long -220 to get a hit Tuesday. He’s also surpassed 1.5 total bases in eight straight contests and is -130 to do so again.
Red Sox designated hitter Rafael Devers has driven in at least one run in three straight games and four of his last five. He’s around +140 to record an RBI against the Blue Jays.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays best bets

Red Sox over 4.5 total runs: +115 for one unit (best odds at Sports Interaction). We’re getting very good value at plus money in this spot on a team that put up 13 runs on the Guardians on Sunday and is averaging 4.9 runs per game this season. Francis has done a good job of bending but not breaking to this point for the Blue Jays, but his 6.29 Expected ERA is very concerning heading into this start. Back the Red Sox to score five or more runs on Tuesday.
Jarren Duran over 0.5 hits + George Springer over 0.5 hits: Two-leg parlay +117 for one unit (best odds at bet365). There’s not much value in betting these two outcomes individually, so we’ll parlay Duran and Springer to each get a hit on Tuesday. Duran, Boston’s leadoff hitter, has a smoking hot .429 batting average over the last seven days and is 1-for-5 in his career versus Francis. Springer, meanwhile, is off to a terrific start with a .325 batting average and ranks in the 88th percentile in average exit velocity and the 89th percentile in hard-hit rate. He’s 1-for-4 in his career vs. Crochet with a home run.