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MLB betting preview (July 2): Yankees vs. Blue Jays predictions
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Photo credit: © Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images
Nicholas Martin
Jul 2, 2025, 11:55 EDT
After earning wins over two of the AL’s best starters to start their critical series versus the New York Yankees, the Toronto Blue Jays have the opportunity to pull into a tie atop the division on Wednesday. The Blue Jays are betting underdogs for the third straight game as Will Warren (4.37 ERA, 80 and 1/3 IP) will face off against Jose Berrios (3.27 ERA, 52 IP).
Let’s take a look at the game odds for Wednesday’s clash between the Yankees and Blue Jays, courtesy of bet365.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays odds

Yankees moneyline odds
-125
Blue Jays moneyline odds
+105
Runline odds
Yankees -1.5 (+130), Blue Jays +1.5 (-155)
Game total
Over 9 runs (-105), Under 9 runs (-115)
Date/time
July 2, 7:07 p.m. ET

About the Yankees (48-37 SU, 40-45 ATS, 33-50-2 o/u)

Warren was viewed as the Yankees’ top pitching prospect entering the year and was provided an opportunity to be a full-time starter thanks to the injuries suffered by Gerrit Cole and Luis Gil. It took some time for Warren to pay off his potential at the MLB level, as he struggled to a 10.32 ERA in 22 and 2/3 innings in 2024 and a 4.61 ERA in his first 41 innings this season.
Warren has settled in recently, though, as over his last five starts, he holds a 2.86 ERA and 3.20 xFIP. He’s struck out 29.3% of batters in those outings and allowed an expected batting average of .213. His recent pitch metrics have also been excellent, as he holds a Stuff+ rating of 104 and a Pitching+ rating of 109.
The Yankees will provide a tough matchup for Berrios, as they rank fourth in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching this season, after finishing first in wRC+ versus righties in 2024. They rank ninth in wRC+ versus RHP over the last month of play, but rank third in hard-hit rate. New York has hit Berrios effectively historically, as it holds an .874 OPS versus Berrios across 161 plate appearances.
The Yankees’ bullpen has allowed an ERA of 3.93 over the last month of play and has been a concern in the first two games of this critical series. Most of the top relievers from both sides are fairly taxed entering this matchup, and it wouldn’t be overly surprising to see some late fireworks once again in Wednesday’s matchup.

About the Blue Jays (47-38 SU, 51-34 ATS, 46-37-2 o/u)

Berríos had his worst start of the season on June 15th in Philadelphia, allowing six earned runs and nine hits while managing only 14 outs. He’s bounced back with two dominant performances versus the Chicago White Sox and Boston Red Sox, allowing zero earned runs and only six combined hits.
While Berrios has been almost untouchable over his last two outings, his underlying profile remains fairly unconvincing. He holds a 4.55 xERA and 4.14 xFIP this season. His strikeout minus walk-rate of 12.5% is his worst mark since his rookie season, and his Pitching+ rating of 93 is the worst mark of his career by a wide margin.
Berrios has stranded 80.8% of base runners this season and allowed a slugging percentage of just .274 with runners in scoring position. He was effective at getting out of jams last season, but his current process is still quite concerning, given that at some point, he will likely regress at least somewhat closer to the league average with regards to pitching with men on.
The Blue Jays’ lineup could receive a boost as Bo Bichette is expected to return to the lineup Wednesday. Toronto ranks 13th with a wRC+ of 107 over the last month of play and has struck out at the lowest rate in MLB. They will be in their lesser split versus a right-handed starter in Warren, as they have hit to a wRC+ of 103 versus right-handed pitching this season.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays betting trends

  • The Blue Jays are 26-23 when playing as an underdog this season.
  • The Blue Jays are 13-4 in their last 17 home games.
  • Toronto is 3-2 versus New York this season.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays best bets

  • New York Yankees First Five Inning Moneyline -125 (Bet365, Play to -135): We moved to 5-0-1 on the season after the Blue Jays paid off as underdogs on Tuesday, as an overvalued Max Fried struggled before the Blue Jays lit up the Yankees bullpen once again.
While Gausman and the Blue Jays were undervalued on Tuesday, they look to be a little overvalued given Wednesday’s starting pitching matchup. Berríos looks like a good fade candidate right now given his underlying profile and has struggled with the Yankees historically. Warren has been dominant recently, and his excellent arsenal suggests he should be capable of continuing to pitch at a high level moving forward.
Hopefully, the Blue Jays can lay into the Yankees’ bullpen once again after the starters leave this matchup. But at a price of -125, there looks to be value in isolating the Yankees to win the first five innings, given Warren’s recent form and their high-powered lineup’s potential to expose Berrios.

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