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MLB betting preview (July 1): Yankees vs. Blue Jays predictions
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Photo credit: © Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images
Nicholas Martin
Jul 1, 2025, 10:55 EDT
The Toronto Blue Jays will have the opportunity to pull within one game of the New York Yankees for the division lead when they face off on Canada Day in front of a sold-out Rogers Centre. Tuesday’s high-profile game features a marquee pitching matchup, as Max Fried (1.92 ERA, 108 IP) will take on Kevin Gausman (4.21 ERA, 94 IP).
Let’s take a look at the game odds for Tuesday’s clash between the Yankees and Blue Jays, courtesy of bet365.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays odds

Yankees moneyline odds
-165
Blue Jays moneyline odds
+140
Runline odds
Yankees -1.5 (+105), Blue Jays +1.5 (-125)
Game total
Over 8 runs (+100), Under 8 runs (-120)
Date/time
July 1, 3:07 p.m. ET

About the Yankees (48-36 SU, 40-44 ATS, 32-50-2 o/u)

Fried is currently priced as the fourth favourite in the AL Cy Young race at +1200, entering today’s matchup with the second-lowest ERA of qualified AL starters. With Fried holding a better ERA across roughly the same amount of innings pitched, Fried might have the edge over Tarik Skubal if the season ended today.
However, oddsmakers are rightfully expecting Skubal to outperform Fried in the second half of the campaign. Fried holds a 3.30 xERA and 3.11 xFIP this season. Including the start of this year, Fried has outperformed his xERA in six straight years, but the gap between his actual ERA and expected results is currently far wider than normal.
Over his last five starts, Fried has pitched to an ERA of 1.91 and struck out 9.27 batters per nine. He’s allowed an xBA of .222 and an xFIP of 2.73. His pitch metrics have remained excellent, as he holds a Stuff+ rating of 114 and a Pitching+ rating of 117 in those matchups.
While previous head-to-head matchups are not overly indicative of anything when handicapping baseball, Fried is 3-0 with a 0.72 ERA in his career versus the Blue Jays.
The Yankees have been less dominant offensively over the last month of play, as they rank 15th in baseball with a wRC+ of 102 and have struck out at the sixth-highest rate in the league. They rank 15th in slugging percentage versus right-handed pitchers in that span and rank 13th in K/BB ratio.
Trent Grisham exited Monday’s contest with a hamstring injury and is expected to miss this matchup. Austin Wells is also expected to remain sidelined with a finger issue.

About the Blue Jays (46-38 SU, 50-34 ATS, 45-37-2 o/u)

It certainly seems a little surprising to see Gausman entering this matchup sporting a 4.21 ERA, as it still seems like, on a per-game basis, you’re expecting a better-than-average start from Gausman as a fan each time he takes the mound. Gausman has had three truly disastrous outings this season, including one on June 19th versus the Arizona Diamondbacks and another on April 27th at Yankee Stadium.
Gausman was brilliant in last week’s start versus the Cleveland Guardians, as he allowed just two hits and zero earned runs across eight innings of work. Over his last ten appearances, he holds an ERA of 4.05 and an xFIP of 3.58. He holds a strikeout minus walk-rate of 19.7% in those outings, and a Stuff+ rating of 101.
As we touched on ahead of yesterday’s matchup, the Blue Jays have been highly productive versus left-handed pitching this season, and have done so largely due to their strong plate discipline. Over the last month of play, Toronto ranks eighth with a wRC+ of 104 versus lefties and holds the lowest strikeout rate in the league of 14.7%. It ranks sixth in wRC+ versus lefties overall this season.
George Springer is listed as day-to-day after exiting Monday’s matchup in the seventh inning, but is expected to play in this matchup. Bo Bichette is also listed as day-to-day after ending up as a late scratch for Monday’s matchup, and it is unclear if he will return for this matchup.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays betting trends

  • The Blue Jays are 25-23 when playing as an underdog this season.
  • The Blue Jays are 12-4 in their last 16 home games.
  • Toronto is 2-2 versus New York this season.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays best bets

  • Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline +135). It’s still a bet that will lose more often than it wins, but the Blue Jays look to be too long of an underdog to pass up in this high-profile Canada Day matchup. Gausman has been hit-or-miss this season, but he’s still been sharper than his overall ERA dictates, and is more than capable of going stride-for-stride with Fried at his best.
While Gausman’s underlying numbers suggest he is a starter that could bounce back in the second half, Fried does look likely to come to earth to some extent moving forward. The Blue Jays have been more productive offensively of late than the Yankees, and are getting quality at-bats from a longer list of batters right now.
For +135, I believe there is value in backing the Blue Jays to win this matchup, and would bet it down to +125.

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