MLB betting preview (July 28): Blue Jays vs. Orioles predictions
Photo credit: Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images
By Greg Warren
Jul 28, 2025, 13:00 EDTUpdated: Jul 28, 2025, 12:58 EDT
After taking three of four games from the Detroit Tigers, the Toronto Blue Jays will begin a four-game series with the Baltimore Orioles at Camden Yards on Monday.
Toronto is a blistering 8-2 since the All-Star break and enters this series with the best record (63-43) in the American League.
Baltimore, meanwhile, is in the basement of the AL East with a 47-58 record, but the Orioles did take two of three games from the lowly Colorado Rockies over the weekend and have won three of their last four overall.
Let’s dive into the game odds for Monday’s series opener between the Blue Jays and Orioles courtesy of bet365.
Blue Jays vs. Orioles odds
Blue Jays moneyline odds | -110 |
Orioles moneyline odds | -110 |
Runline odds | Blue Jays -1.5 (+145), Orioles +1.5 (-170) |
Game total | Over 9.5 runs (-105), Under 9.5 (-115) |
Date/Time | July 28, 6:35 p.m. ET |
About the Blue Jays (63-43 SU, 64-42 ATS, 55-47-4 o/u)
The Blue Jays will be very happy that they received seven strong innings from pitcher Max Scherzer on Sunday to help preserve the bullpen, because they’ll now play four games in three days in Baltimore, including a doubleheader on Tuesday.
Furthermore, this will also be Toronto’s last series before the July 31 trade deadline, and it will get a firsthand look at many of the top names available on the market over the next few days in Baltimore, as the floundering Orioles are expected to be sellers. First baseman Ryan O’Hearn, outfielder Cedric Mullins, and pitchers Zach Eflin (Monday’s projected starter), Charlie Morton, and Tomoyuki Sugano are all rumoured to be on the trade block.
Toronto has obvious pitching needs leading up to the deadline as it prepares for a deep playoff run, and the Orioles could be a potential trade partner with so many arms available.
About the Orioles (47-58 SU, 45-60 ATS, 45-57-3 o/u)
Back in March, oddsmakers thought the Orioles would compete for a playoff spot this year. They were given around +1600 odds to win the World Series, +310 odds to win the AL East, and had a projected season win total around 86.
Obviously, things haven’t gone according to plan, which is a major disappointment for a team that was loaded with so many promising prospects just a few years ago. They rank 20th in the majors, averaging 4.2 runs per game. But they’ve really struggled from a pitching perspective, allowing 5 runs per game, which ranks 26th in the majors.
However, there is some good news for the club entering this series, as stud catcher Adley Rutschman will be activated off the injured list Monday following an oblique injury. He’s had a subpar season, like many of Baltimore’s key players, slashing just .227/.319/.372 with eight homers in 68 games.
Probable starting pitchers
Toronto: RHP Chris Bassitt (11-4, 3.88 ERA, 8.73 K/9)
Bassitt has been incredible in five starts this month, posting a 4-0 record with a 2.39 ERA. He faced a daunting New York Yankees lineup twice during that span, allowing just three earned runs in both of those starts. The veteran righty also pitched well in his lone start against the Orioles this season way back in March, holding them to one run on eight hits over six innings of work. It should be noted that he’s struggled on the road a bit this season, posting a 3-4 mark with a 5.66 ERA while allowing batters to hit a lofty .284 against him.
Baltimore: RHP Zach Eflin (6-5, 5.78 ERA, 6.31 K/9)
The Orioles will be hoping for a strong start from Eflin in this contest to boost his trade value leading up to the deadline in a few days. He had a miserable June, posting a 2-3 record with an ugly 8.72 ERA across five starts. However, he did pitch well against Cleveland in his lone July start to this point, holding the Guardians to two runs on two hits over five innings while striking out five. Eflin tossed six innings of two-run ball against the Blue Jays back on March 27 to pick up the win.
Notable injuries
Catcher Alejandro Kirk (concussion), infielder Andres Gimenez (ankle), outfielder Anthony Santander (shoulder), outfielder Daulton Varsho (hamstring), pitcher Yimi Garcia (ankle), and pitcher Bowden Francis are all on the injured list for Toronto. However, Varsho could be activated as early as Monday, so bettors should watch for that.
Pitcher Grayson Rodriguez (lat/elbow), pitcher Albert Suarez (shoulder), pitcher Kyle Bradish (elbow), and first baseman Ryan Mountcastle are on the IL for Baltimore.
Weather
Forecasts are calling for very warm temperatures around 35 C and clear skies. Winds will blow in from centre field at 5 mph.
Blue Jays vs. Orioles betting trends
- The over is 8-2 in the past 10 meetings between these teams.
- The Orioles are just 20-30 on the runline at home this season.
- The Blue Jays have the best record (64-42) in the majors on the runline.
- Toronto has hit the team total over in 34 of its last 51 games.
Blue Jays vs. Orioles player prop trends
- Tyler O’Neill carries a four-game hitting streak into action Monday and is -145 to extend it. He has also homered in three straight contests and is +450 to go deep.
- George Springer has exceeded 1.5 total bases in six straight games and eight of his last 10. He’s -102 to do it again Monday. Springer has also scored at least one run in eight straight contests and is -125 to extend that streak.
- Bo Bichette has doubled in three straight games and six of his last 10. He’s +340 to extend that streak.
Blue Jays vs. Orioles best bet
- Blue Jays moneyline: -105 for one unit (best odds @ Pinnacle). It’s a little surprising we’re getting such a good price on the red-hot Jays in this spot against an inferior opponent. Bassitt definitely gives them an edge in the starting pitching matchup, and the bullpen is in good shape after a solid start from Scherzer on Sunday.