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MLB betting preview (July 3): Yankees vs. Blue Jays predictions
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Photo credit: © Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images
Nicholas Martin
Jul 3, 2025, 12:09 EDT
The Toronto Blue Jays will look to complete a critical four-game sweep over the New York Yankees Thursday, when Chris Bassitt (4.29 ERA, 94 and 1/3 IP) takes on Clarke Schmidt (3.09 ERA, 75 and 2/3 IP). The Blue Jays have been betting underdogs in each of the first three games of the series, but have put up 28 runs versus a trio of quality starters to earn a share of the division lead.
Let’s take a look at the game odds for Thursday’s clash between the Yankees and Blue Jays, courtesy of bet365.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays odds

Yankees moneyline odds
-125
Blue Jays moneyline odds
+105
Runline odds
Yankees -1.5 (+130), Blue Jays +1.5 (-155)
Game total
Over 8.5 runs (+100), Under 8.5 runs (-120)
Date/time
July 3, 7:07 p.m. ET

About the Yankees (48-38 SU, 40-46 ATS, 34-50-2 o/u)

As is often the case for quality teams that are struggling to produce wins, the Yankees have struggled recently with runners in scoring position, just as we saw with the Blue Jays during their slow start to the campaign. The Yankees are 12-14 since June 3rd, and have averaged 4.32 runs scored per game in that span.
They hold a 27th-ranked wRC+ of 79 with runners in scoring position during their 12-14 run, with an OPS of .641. In those at-bats, though, they still rank fifth in hard-hit rate and hold the 12th-highest BB/K ratio. New York holds the second-highest expected slug rate and second-highest expected weighted on-base average this season, and its recent offensive downswing likely is not worth putting too much stock into.
Dating back to the start of the 2024 season, the Yankees hold a wRC+ rating of 120 versus right-handed pitching, which is the best mark in MLB. With Juan Soto no longer with the team, they have still managed comparable results versus righties this season, with a wRC+ of 119 and a .444 slugging percentage.
Schmidt will try his hand at cooling off the Blue Jays scorching hot offence, which has lit up two of the AL’s best starters in this series, as well as Will Warren, who was in dominant form prior to yesterday’s outing.
Schmidt has been a better-than-average starter this season, with a 2.66 xERA and 4.18 xFIP throughout his first 75 and 2/3 innings of work. His Stuff+ rating of 102 and 14.6% strikeout minus walk rate are down slightly compared to last season. He holds an ERA of 1.95 in his last five starts, but his 4.07 xFIP and 102 Stuff+ rating are comparable to the rest of his campaign, and stranding 87.2% of base runners has been the greatest causation of his recent upswing.
The Yankees bullpen has pitched nine innings in this series and allowed an ERA of 12.00. Over the last 30 days, Yankees relievers hold an ERA of 4.06. Every key arm has pitched multiple times over the last five days, and the Blue Jays have done a great job of grinding out bats throughout the entirety of this series.

About the Blue Jays (48-38 SU, 52-34 ATS, 47-37-2 o/u)

It’s hard to top a win over Max Fried on Canada Day, but the Blue Jays deserve plenty of credit for Thursday’s performance. While blowing an eight-run lead is far from ideal, the Yankees have a high-powered offence and did well to scrap their way back into the game.
After it looked possible that Toronto’s pitching staff blew a critical game, Toronto showed strong resolve by grinding out two more runs in the bottom of the eighth inning to ultimately earn the win and tie up the division.
The first three games of this series have featured an average of 15.33 runs, and have been a showcase to the point that Rogers Centre has started to play as a more batter-friendly ballpark, which was expected after the remodel prior to the 2024 season.
Rogers Centre ranks as the 7th best ballpark for run creation this season and 10th dating back to the start of last season after the remodel, in which the walls were moved in and the amount of foul territory was reduced. It ranks as the third-best ballpark for hitting home runs so far in 2025.
As we have seen in the two games of this series in which the roof has been open (Tuesday and Wednesday), the ballpark is also typically slightly more favorable for run creation when the roof is open.
The Blue Jays rank ninth in wRC+ over the last 30 days, but have been particularly dominant with runners in scoring position, with an OPS of .893. They have struck out only 17.6% of the time since June 3rd.
Bo Bichette remained out of the lineup in Wednesday’s game with knee soreness, but is expected to at least be available off of the bench for Thursday’s matchup.
Bassitt will be looking to bounce back from an ugly outing on Saturday at Fenway Park, in which he allowed eight earned runs and recorded only six outs. He also struggled in his previous start versus the Yankees this season, allowing four earned runs and six hits in five and two-thirds.
Bassitt has pitched to a 5.27 ERA throughout his last ten starts, but on a per-game basis has been slightly better than that number sounds, as obviously his dreadful performance in Boston over the weekend is tanking his ERA. He holds a 3.87 xFIP and 13.1% strikeout minus walk-rate in those outings.
Toronto’s bullpen has not been overly effective recently, but it has been able to mask that flaw with its tremendous offensive play. Over the last 30 days Blue Jays relievers hold an ERA of 4.21, and a 29th-ranked xFIP of 4.73. Each of the team’s top relievers have seen plenty of action over the last four days, with Brendon Little and Yariel Rodriguez in particular likely to be unavailable for this matchup.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays betting trends

  • The Blue Jays are 27-23 when playing as an underdog this season.
  • The Blue Jays are 14-4 in their last 17 home games.
  • Toronto is 4-2 versus New York this season.
  • Paul Goldschmidt holds an OPS of 1.389 in nine career at-bats versus Bassitt.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays best bets

  • Over 8.5 Total Runs +100 (Bet365, Play to -115): The Blue Jays proved me wrong with their dominant offensive performance in Wednesday’s matchup, and could be well situated for another productive day versus Schmidt and the Yankees struggling bullpen.
The Yankees lineup has managed 31 hits in the first three games of this series and could realistically have generated more than 18 runs, which is still a strong output. They have been extremely hard on righties over the last two seasons and could take advantage of a withered Blue Jays bullpen if they force Bassitt out of the game early.
There is plenty of reasoning to believe Thursday’s series finale could be another high-scoring affair, and at +100 there looks to be value in backing this game to feature over 8.5 total runs.

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