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MLB Betting Preview (May 3): Blue Jays vs. Nationals predictions
Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Yusei Kikuchi (16) throws out New York Yankees third baseman Oswaldo Cabrera (not pictured) at first base on a ground ball during the second inning at Rogers Centre.
Photo credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports
Greg Warren
May 3, 2024, 10:00 EDTUpdated: May 3, 2024, 11:32 EDT
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The Toronto Blue Jays will begin a three-game interleague series with the Nationals in Washington on Friday night after dropping two of three to the Kansas City Royals earlier this week at Rogers Centre.
Toronto has now dropped three consecutive series, including two to the aforementioned Royals. Friday will mark the opener of a short five-game road trip that will also include a stop in Philadelphia early next week.

The Nationals have been playing some decent baseball lately, claiming wins in five of their last seven games. Washington was shut out 6-0 by the Texas Rangers on Thursday and scored just two runs in the three-game series.
Let’s dive into the game odds for Friday’s clash between the Blue Jays and Nationals via bet365:

Blue Jays vs. Nationals odds

Blue Jays Moneyline Odds
-180
Nationals Moneyline Odds
+150
Runline Odds
Blue Jays -1.5 (-110), Nationals +1.5 (-110)
Over/Under
Over 9 runs (-105), Under 9 runs (-115)
Time/Date
May 3, 6:45 p.m. ET
TV
Broadcast: Apple TV

Betting Toronto Blue Jays (15-17 SU, 15-17 ATS, 12-20 o/u)

The Blue Jays are hoping a day off Thursday to regroup can help them break out of their current offensive funk. Scoring runs has been a major problem for them out of the gate, as their 3.5 runs per game average ranks 27th in the majors. They also rank in the back half of the league in batting average (.225 – 24th), on-base percentage (.309 – 16th), slugging percentage (.361 – 22nd), OPS (.670 – 20th), and home runs (28 – 22nd). Additionally, the Jays have a 68 WRC+ with runners in scoring position, which ranks dead last in the league.
Nathan Lukes is expected to be recalled from Triple-A Buffalo in a desperate attempt to inspire some scoring. The outfielder posted a .284/.348/.432 slash line with three home runs and 13 RBIs in 20 games for the Bisons. It’s unclear what the corresponding roster move will be to make room for the outfielder.

Betting Washington Nationals (15-16 SU, 19-12 ATS, 13-17-1 o/u)

The Nationals are having some offensive struggles of their own, producing just two runs on 12 hits over their last three games against Texas. They’re averaging just 3.8 runs per game (20th in the majors), and like the Jays, are ranking in the back half of the league in most offensive statistical categories.

Bettors should take note that this team loves to run. Washington’s 53 steals rank second in the majors. Outfielder Jacob Young leads the team with 12 steals, with Lane Thomas close behind with 11. The Nationals boasts five players on the roster with five steals or more.
Washington is pretty banged up right now, with key players like Josiah Gray (elbow), Joey Gallo (shoulder), Victor Robles (hamstring), and Thomas (knee) on the injured list, among others.

Probable starting pitchers

Toronto: LHP Yusei Kikuchi (2-2, 2.94 ERA, 9.62 K/9, 1.16 WHIP)
Kikuchi took the loss last time out against the loaded Los Angeles Dodgers, surrendering four earned runs on nine hits over six innings of work. It was statistically his worst outing of the young season, but that’s not surprising given the elite talent on the Dodgers roster. After opening the season averaging well over one strikeout per inning over his first four outings, the lefty has just seven whiffs over his last 12 frames. However, his control has been exceptional, issuing just one walk over his last three starts. Kikuchi’s curveball, which he throws roughly 28% of the time, has been devastating this year, holding opposing hitters to a .184 batting average. He’s notched 10 of his 36 strikeouts with the pitch.
Washington: LHP Patrick Corbin (0-3, 6.82 ERA, 6.25 K/9, 1.89 WHIP)
The Nationals will likely be very happy to see Corbin’s untradeable contract (he’s making $35.4 million this year) expire this winter. The former two-time All-Star and 2019 World Series champion is having another miserable season, going winless through his first six starts with a bloated 6.82 ERA. Opponents are hitting .353 off him and .388 against his sinker, which he uses roughly 34% of the time. The 34-year-old’s velocity is down again this year, topping out around 91 mph. Corbin was torched for seven runs – four earned – by the lowly Miami Marlins in his last start in which he lasted just four innings.

Weather

It should be a nice evening for baseball in Washington, with temperatures around 19 C expected under mostly cloudy skies. Winds will be blowing from right field to left field at roughly 13 mph.

MLB betting trends

  • The under is 8-2 in Toronto’s last 10 games.
  • The Blue Jays have won 12 of the 20 games they’ve been favoured in this season (60%).
  • The Nationals are 6-6 straight-up when they have moneyline odds of +150 or longer this season.

MLB player prop trends

  • Kikuchi has recorded exactly 18 outs in four straight starts. He’s -120 to record over 17.5 outs against the Nationals.
  • Corbin has allowed four or more earned runs in seven of his last eight starts dating back to last season. He’s +110 to allow over 3.5 earned runs.
  • Nationals shortstop CJ Abrams has recorded at least one total base in eight of his last 10 games and 16 of his last 20. He’s -185 to record over 0.5 total bases.

Blue Jays vs. Nationals predictions

  • Blue Jays designated hitter Justin Turner has roasted Corbin in his career, hitting .410 with a 1.144 OPS in 39 career at-bats against him. Turner has been by far Toronto’s best bat this season, leading the team in batting average (.298), RBIs (15), on-base percentage (.376), and hits (28). He’s -115 to record over 1.5 total bases, +100 to drive in a run, and +350 to homer.
  • This seems like a good spot to target Kikuchi’s overs in two categories: 17.5 outs recorded (-120), and 5.5 strikeouts (+130). Washington’s bats are cold and only two players on its roster have ever faced the lefty before (Eddie Rosario and Jesse Winker) and they’re a combined 1-for-8 against him.
  • This game total is set high at nine runs given the offensive struggles of both teams recently. Corbin is the wild card here, but Toronto is hitting just .240 (18th in majors) off lefties. Ride with the under nine runs (-115) on the game total or take the Nationals under 3.5 runs (-120) on their team total.

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