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Series Preview: Blue Jays face the Padres for final series before the All-Star Break
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Photo credit: © D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images
Tristan Morgan
Jul 10, 2026, 15:09 EDT
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The Toronto Blue Jays open a three-game series at Petco Park on Friday night for their first meeting of the season against the San Diego Padres, with both clubs hoping to find some traction before the All-Star Break. This is new territory for the season series, and it arrives with both teams sitting in unfamiliar spots in the standings.
Toronto enters at 44-49 overall and 20-24 on the road, having won two straight and putting up 19 runs, including a grand slam from Kazuma Okamoto, since scoring just one during a three-game skid. Over the last 10 games, the Blue Jays are 5-5 with a .200 average but a sharp 3.31 team ERA, outscored by only three runs. Toronto’s pitching staff this year sits at 4.09, eighth in the AL.
San Diego sits at 46-47 with a 25-23 home record, having won two of its last three and three of five after dropping eight in a row. In their last 10 games, the Padres are 3-7, hitting .249 with a bloated 6.88 ERA, having been outscored by 29 runs in that stretch. For the season, Padres pitching carries a 4.20 ERA, fifth in the NL.
Game 1 on Friday pits Shane Bieber against JP Sears, and neither has fully settled in so far this season.
Bieber owns a 9.00 ERA and just nine strikeouts across three starts, hasn’t gone deeper than 5.1 innings, and has walked seven batters over his last two starts. It hasn’t been a workload issue either, as he threw 89 pitches in just four innings his last time out against Seattle, an outing in which the Mariners took him deep twice.
For the Padres, Sears has been a little steadier. Since being recalled from Triple-A El Paso on June 23rd, he carries a 5.04 ERA through 15.1 innings; however, in his most recent start, the lefty tossed five shutout innings at Dodger Stadium. Toronto’s Daulton Varsho and Andrés Giménez have owned Sears in their careers, a combined 7-for-12, and Giménez is hitting .273 over his last month, so expect them in the mix Friday.
Saturday’s Game 2 brings Trey Yesavage against Walker Buehler. Yesavage has been one of Toronto’s best stories of the season, posting a 3.34 ERA with 61 strikeouts over 67.1 innings in his first full campaign, and he’ll make his first career start against the Padres. Buehler, however, has been far more turbulent. Following a strong June, when he posted an outstanding 1.71 ERA in five starts, he’s had back-to-back disasters against the Cubs and Diamondbacks, allowing 10 runs in 9 innings. 
Kevin Gausman closes out the series on Sunday opposite German Marquez.
Gausman has scuffled by his standards this year, sitting at a 4.32 ERA after a rough patch in June, where he hosted a 6.47 ERA across six starts. For Marquez, after missing two months with right forearm nerve irritation, he has struggled in his return, allowing 10 earned runs over 6.2 innings before rebounding with five innings of one unearned run in his latest outing.

Player to Watch: Fernando Tatis Jr.

Though Fernando Tatis Jr. started the season ice cold, not hitting his first home run until May 30, he has looked every bit like the superstar the Padres expected ever since.
Over the last month, Tatis has been batting .295 with four home runs and eight stolen bases. The turnaround should come as little surprise, as his underlying metrics never suggested he was struggling. Tatis owns a .284 expected batting average, a 52.7 percent hard-hit rate and a .349 xwOBA, which is well above his actual production, indicating his recent surge is backed by elite contact quality rather than good fortune.  
If the Blue Jays are going to contain the Padres’ offence, it starts with slowing down Tatis. His ability to impact the game in every facet, with power, speed and premium defence, makes him the engine that drives San Diego’s lineup. 
In this series, Toronto carries a bullpen advantage. After Tyler Rogers needed just four pitches to close out the ninth inning behind Dylan Cease’s eight no-hit innings on Wednesday, and with an off day before this trip, the Blue Jays’ bullpen should be fully rested. However, San Diego’s pen is more taxed, having used four relief arms, including three lefties, in Wednesday’s win over Arizona, though the superstar closer, Mason Miller, is fresh.
Neither team is playing like a contender right now, but neither is out of the picture either. For Toronto, a winning weekend keeps the Jays well within shouting distance of the wild card and buys GM Ross Atkins time to decide what kind of team he’s building toward August 3. For the Padres, this series is about proving their recent losing streak was just a hiccup in a successful season, before their front office starts asking hard questions about who on their roster is expendable. 

Quick Hits

  • Toronto swept a three-game series from San Diego at Rogers Centre in May 2025, winning 3-0, 14-0 and 7-6.
  • Blue Jays hitters have struck out in just 19 percent of their plate appearances against right-handed pitching this season, second best in MLB.
  • Padres hitters are slugging just .352 at home this season, the lowest mark in baseball, and their .371 slugging percentage overall ranks second-lowest.
  • Manny Machado has quietly had a very unlucky season for San Diego, with just a .193 BABIP (MLB average: ~.300), suggesting he is incredibly unlucky this season, despite hitting 19 home runs with 52 RBI.

Probable Pitchers

Game 1: Shane Bieber vs. JP Sears
Game 2: Trey Yesavage vs. Walker Buehler
Game 3: Kevin Gausman vs. German Marquez

Game Times

Friday: 9:40 PM ET
Saturday: 8:40 PM ET
Sunday: 4:10 PM ET

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