Given the hand they’ve been dealt, the Toronto Blue Jays should probably consider themselves extremely fortunate to be sitting at 11-8 through 19 games this season, placing them just a game back of the AL East-leading New York Yankees.
Of the five teams this franchise has faced since Opening Day, four of those clubs — the Baltimore Orioles, New York Mets, Boston Red Sox and Atlanta Braves — entered the 2025 campaign as hopeful playoff contenders, with the Blue Jays splitting the 16 games against those opponents. Thanks to a series sweep of the Washington Nationals, they’re currently positioned three games above .500 heading into another challenging matchup this weekend versus the Seattle Mariners.
All in all, it’s been a fairly successful first few weeks for Toronto, an organization that entered the year with one of the sport’s toughest schedules in March/April. So, the fact that they’ve stayed afloat is quite the early-season accomplishment, especially considering how important it was for this club to enjoy a promising start.
They’re not out of the woods yet, though, as there’s still another half of this opening-month slate to complete, with matchups still on tap against the M’s, Houston Astros, New York Yankees and Red Sox before the calendar turns to May.
It hasn’t been a perfect start to the season for the Blue Jays, who feature a plus-four run differential entering Friday’s series opener and sit tied with the Mets for 21st in runs scored per game (4.0). Early on, the offence has yet to truly ignite, particularly in the power department, as they’re tied with three other teams — the Chicago White Sox, Colorado Rockies and Miami Marlins — for the second-fewest home runs (12) in the majors, ahead of only the Kansas City Royals (10).
We’re still waiting to witness Bo Bichette’s first dinger of ’25, while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Anthony Santander — the lineup’s other top two hitters — have each gone deep just once early on. And yet, Toronto’s offence has managed to resemble an above-average unit based on their 108 wRC+, eight per cent above league average (100).
Most teams wouldn’t be able to survive while their best hitters are off to slow starts, and there are two key reasons why the Blue Jays have been able to keep their heads above water. The first is due to the likes of George Springer — who leads the team in several offensive categories (min. 50 plate appearances), including AVG (.375), OBP (.436), SLG (.604), wOBA (.446) and wRC+ (200) — and Andrés Giménez, whose production has cooled off dramatically from his hot start, along with off-the-bench heroes such as Myles Straw and Tyler Heineman.
The second reason, of course, is because of Toronto’s remarkable pitching staff — which has allowed the fifth-fewest runs per game (3.79) this season — led by starter Chris Bassitt, who’s off to the best start of his 11-year major league career as he leads all qualified big-league pitchers in ERA (0.77) and FIP (0.98) while ranking second in fWAR (1.2), behind Cincinnati’s Hunter Greene (1.3).
Most remarkably, Bassitt has somehow morphed into a strikeout machine across his first four starts of ’25, punching out over a third of his batters faced thus far while registering a 28-per-cent strikeout-to-walk rate difference (K-BB%) — the fourth-highest among major league starters. For reference, his current career-high over a full season is 18.8 per cent set in ’21.
Between Bassitt, Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Bowden Francis and Easton Lucas, the Blue Jays’ rotation — fourth in the majors in starters’ ERA (3.29) and sixth in innings pitched (106.2) this season — has been incredible and among the leading forces behind their 11-8 start. But so has a revamped bullpen featuring closer Jeff Hoffman and Yimi García, who’ve been two of baseball’s most valuable relievers over these first few weeks, as both sit inside the top 10 in fWAR at 0.4, respectively.
Pitching has been a clear strength for this team, which was expected to be the case heading into the year. It’s what got them to the playoffs in 2023 and heavily contributed to last season’s failures as a result of significant injuries, poor performances and a mid-season sell-off that led to the departures of Yusei Kikuchi and García.
But things appear to be back to the status quo this season.
Furthermore, Toronto’s pitching has carried the freight while operating with very little margin for error due to inconsistent scoring from the offence, which has already led to crushing losses in New York and Boston.
That type of heartbreak will surely continue if the Blue Jays’ lineup doesn’t start hitting for more power. Still, when you canvass the rest of the division, even the entire American League, you’ll likely find yourself feeling encouraged about where this team stands as they near the 20-game mark.