Max Scherzer is a living legend. Not that he needed the 3,500 career strikeout milestone to solidify his future case for the Hall of Fame, but that number of strikeouts is staggering. With a handful more K’s this year, Scherzer can slip into the top-10 all-time list of strikeouts.

On the very night of that momentous occasion, Scherzer also exited the game after 3.1 innings against the Phillies, with five earned runs allowed, five hits, and two home runs. It was the veteran’s first start back after being sidelined since April 24, but it’s a pattern that’s emerged for Scherzer.

It’s odd to celebrate a player for their overwhelming body of work, with 19 years in the big leagues, but Scherzer’s time with the Blue Jays may be winding down. If he continues to falter on the mound, the Jays may soon need to sever ties with Scherzer to keep its starting rotation afloat.

For a team that’s struggled with starting pitcher injuries, it seems wasteful to jettison a veteran arm who can still contribute innings at the big league level. Scherzer paired with Dylan Cease’s return was a much-needed shot of adrenaline to the Blue Jays’ starting rotation.

But with Shane Bieber on the mend and eyeing a return in the near future, he may be gunning for Scherzer’s spot in the starting five.

Publicly, manager John Schneider is backing the longtime veteran and isn’t pulling the rip cord after one start back from the injured list. After nearly two decades in MLB, Scherzer has earned the grace and respect to not be cast aside after one bad start.

But here’s the thing: it hasn’t been one bad start; it’s been a series of subpar outings since signing with the Blue Jays heading into the 2025 season. Dating back to August 25 of last season, Scherzer has logged two quality starts in his last 12 regular season outings. In half of those games, Scherzer failed to reach the fifth inning.

As fluky as it may have been, Scherzer gave up at least one earned run in every single one of his 17 regular season starts in 2025. His first inning ERA of 13.50 was off the charts. If he got out of the first few frames without a big number on the board, it was a welcome change of pace. His first inning curse felt like a thing.

Remember that it wasn’t until his performance in Game 4 of the ALCS against the Seattle Mariners that Scherzer held his opponents off the board in the first inning. Most fans will remember Scherzer when he was at his best last year in the postseason, given those stakes, but that same beast has not shown up very often during the regular season.

It would be one thing if Scherzer’s velocity was down, but his fastball sat at 93.6 MPH last night, a tick above his season average of 93.1 MPH. He was missing bats, with 13 total whiffs on his pitches, his highest total since September 24 of last year against the Red Sox.

But how can someone who misses that many bats continue to give up hard contact? His strikeout rate has decreased from 22.9% in 2025 to 13.7% this season, as well as a decrease in his whiff rate. That’s combined with an uptick in walk rate to 10.8%, when hitters force Scherzer to come back into the strike zone, he feeds opposing hitters fresh meatballs on a silver platter.

After Scherzer re-signed with the Blue Jays, there was excitement in the prospect of getting the playoff version of the right-hander in 2026. However, it was always more than likely they’d get the regular season version heading into his age 42 season.

Had it not been for Patrick Corbin being an unsung hero in the Blue Jays’ starting rotation (a guy who might be playing on borrowed time himself), Scherzer would be given more rope here. A team like the Blue Jays, decimated by injuries, can’t afford to be releasing starting pitching depth, as shaky as some of these starters have been of late.

But the instant a better option comes along, that’s when the hard conversations need to be had behind closed doors. If Bieber returns in a few weeks, can the Blue Jays afford to let go of Corbin over Scherzer? That’s a tough sell to the fanbase to pick the starter who’s been plagued by early-inning blowups, compared to the guy who’s been a solid five-and-dive starter.

With the Blue Jays having used 11 starting pitchers already (a handful of those guys were openers, so not “technically” starting pitchers), chances are they will need a few more arms to make it to the end of the regular season. Last year, the team used 15 starters to weather the 162-game schedule.

There doesn’t need to be a referendum on the merits of Scherzer’s career; he’s one of the best to take the mound. The tricky part for the Blue Jays is knowing when they’ve taken this contract as far as it could go, and letting go of a veteran pitcher who helped the team get to a World Series.

Scherzer will get a few more kicks at the can, but it may not be much longer until somebody else takes his place in the Blue Jays’ starting rotation.