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Series Preview: Blue Jays face Yankees for first time since 2025 ALDS
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Photo credit: © Kevin R. Wexler-NorthJersey.com / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Ryley Delaney
May 18, 2026, 18:15 EDTUpdated: May 18, 2026, 19:02 EDT
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The Toronto Blue Jays dominated the New York Yankees in 2025.
Last season, they met far earlier into the season, playing a three-game series in The Bronx in late April. Alejandro Kirk hit a massive double in the top of the ninth in the series opener, as the Jays scored three times in a 4-2 victory. While they lost their next two games, the Jays lost just three more games.
The next time the two American League East rivals met was in late-June/early-July, when the Jays won all four games to take control of the American League East. They never relinquished the lead, thanks in large part to taking two of three against the Yankees in late July to win the season series. In September, the Yankees took two of three against the Jays, the series in which Bo Bichette suffered his knee injury.
That four-game series sweep in Toronto was the first time the Jays ever accomplished that against the Yankees, at least at home. That said, the Jays have swept a four-game series in The Bronx on two separate occasions, while the Yankees have swept a four-game series against the Jays at home three times.
The season series victory was vital, as both teams finished with a 94-68 record. However, the Yankees had to play the wild card game, where they beat the Boston Red Sox and matched up with the Blue Jays in the first round. Although the Jays won in four games, it wasn’t particularly close. In the end, the Jays out-scored the Yankees 34-19, with seven of those runs coming in a blowout game in Game 2.
If not for Aaron Judge hitting what was an incredible home run of Louis Varland in Game 3, helping the Yankees overcome a 6-1 deficit, the Jays probably would’ve swept the series.

Examining the Yankees

It’s easily to draw parallels from this season to last. Like last season, the Jays have gotten off to a rough start, while the Yankees sit at or near the top of the AL East. The Tampa Bay Rays are now in first, as the Yankees are 3-7 in their last ten, and sit three behind the Rays. As it stands, the Yankees have a six and a half game lead over the Jays.
On May 28th, 2025, the Yankees led the American League East with a 35-20 record, an eight game lead. After turning their season around in late May, the Jays began a 13-3 stretch and entered that four-game series three games back of the Yankees. As poor as this season has started, it’s far from over, especially since the Jays are just a game back of the final wild card spot.
Another interesting tidbit is that the Yankees have not been good against teams over .500. Now, the Jays aren’t over .500 right now, sitting 21-25, but they’ve played 21 games against teams over .500, sitting with an 8-13. The Rays are 13-11 against teams over .500, the Baltimore Orioles are 7-13, and the Boston Red Sox are 9-15. As for the Yankees, they are currently 1-8 in games against teams over .500.
That said, they’re still a great team. They have some swing and miss in their game, owning a 23.5 K%, the seventh-highest in Major League Baseball this season, but they make up for it by leading the league with 68 homers. The Yankees’ 115 wRC+ ranks third in baseball.
On top of that, the Yankees have one of the best rotations in MLB. Through 47 games, their starters have a 3.10 ERA (third-best) and 3.29 FIP (best) in 255.1 innings pitched (seventh-most). Yankee starters have struck out 24.7% of the batters they’ve faced, tied for the third-highest strikeout rate, while their BB% of 8.2% sits 11th. Their starters have surrendered just 21 home runs, tied for the second-fewest in MLB.
Once their starters depart, they can trust their bullpen. Over 160 innings pitched, the Yankees’ relief staff has a 3.60 ERA (11th-best) and a 3.77 FIP (10th-best), with a 22.2 K% (middle of the pack) and an 8.8 BB% (sixth-best). They’ve also only given up 16 home runs, tied for the 10th-fewest for any relief core in the league.
So while the Yankees may have struggled against good teams, they still have a great team.

One player to watch: Aaron Judge

Was it going to be anyone else?
Although he hasn’t performed quite list the last two seasons, Judge’s “poor” start is still better than most players’ starts in Major League Baseball. This season, the outfielder is slashing .266/.401/.598 with 16 home runs in 209 plate appearances, giving him a 174 wRC+ and 2.4 fWAR. That’s down from a 204 wRC+ in 2025 and a 220 wRC+ in 2024.
Judge’s K% of 27.8% is the highest it has been since 2023, when he had a 28.4 K%. He’s always had some swing-and-miss in his game, but if the pitch is in a bad location, he’s doing damage.
You’d be hard-pressed to find a team that Judge hasn’t destroyed in his career, but he’s torched the Jays since entering MLB. In 570 plate appearances against the Jays, Judge is slashing .300/.420/.597 with 41 home runs. Only the Baltimore Orioles have surrendered more home runs to Judge than the Jays have had. As expected, the Red Sox have given up the third-most home runs to Judge, and the Rays the fourth-most.

Quick Hits

  • The Yankees have scored an American League East-leading 237 runs, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise that many of their hitters have an above-average wRC+. Ben Rice’s 194 wRC+ leads the team, as the first baseman has hit 15 home runs. Cody Bellinger and José Caballero are the other two players with 100 or more plate appearances with a wRC+ above 100. Bellinger’s wRC+ sits at 136. Caballero is on the injured list.
  • There are a handful of other hitters who have had fewer than 100 plate appearances, but have a wRC+ above 100. They are: Paul Goldschmidt (163 wRC+), Amed Rosario (119 wRC+), and Giancarlo Stanton (104 wRC+). Stanton is currently on the injured list.
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Trent Grisham were a big part of their offence last season, but have a 92 wRC+ and 82 wRC+ respectively. After hitting a career-best 34 home runs in 581 plate appearances last season, Grisham has just six in 181 plate appearances.
  • The Jays will avoid Max Fried and Gerrit Cole (injured list), but will have to face Cam Schlittler on Wednesday. This season, Schlittler had a 1.35 ERA and 1.81 FIP in 60 innings pitched, with a 30.1 K% and 4.9 BB%.
  • Will Warren is another starter they’ll face, and despite posting a  3.42 ERA and 3.07 FIP in 47.1 innings pitched this season, they’ve found success against him in the past. They’ll also face lefty Ryan Weathers on Monday, who has a 1.42 ERA in his 6.1 innings pitched against the Jays.
  • Carlos Rodón has made two starts this season, posting a 5.63 ERA and 3.97 FIP in eight innings of work. They get him in the series finale on Thursday.
  • Wednesday will be a fun matchup, as Trey Yesavage is set to go head-to-head with Schlittler. Patrick Corbin gets the ball on Tuesday in a lefty-lefty matchup, while strikeout artist Dylan Cease starts Tuesday’s game. The Jays are expected to have a bullpen day on Thursday, with Spencer Miles throwing the bulk of the innings again.

Probable pitchers

Monday: Patrick Corbin/Ryan Weathers
Tuesday: Dylan Cease/Will Warren
Wednesday: Trey Yesavage/Cam Schlittler
Thursday: Bullpen Day/Carlos Rodón

Game times

Monday: 7:05 PM ET
Tuesday: 7:05 PM ET
Wednesday: 7:05 PM ET
Thursday: 7:05 PM ET
Ryley Delaney is a Nation Network writer for Blue Jays Nation, Oilersnation, and FlamesNation. She can be followed on Twitter @Ryley__Delaney.

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