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Trade Tree: The deal that landed the Blue Jays Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and how they aced the repercussions

Trade Tree: The deal that landed the Blue Jays Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and how they aced the repercussions
Photo credit: © John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images
Cynthia Ryley Delaney
Nov 10, 2026, 12:00 ESTUpdated: Nov 9, 2026, 19:44 EST
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In the summer of 2015, the Toronto Blue Jays made a franchise altering trade.
No, it wasn’t the acquisition of Troy Tulowitzki or David Price. While the Blue Jays were in the midst of their special season, which saw them end a two-decade long playoff drought, they also made a trade for their future. Requiring more international bonus pool money for the 2015-16 period, the Blue Jays sent Tim Locastro and Chase De Jong to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
That move saw them land Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and set up the new front office of general manager Ross Atkins and president Mark Shapiro to have by far their best international free agent periods in 2016.
Let’s take a look at the Guerrero Jr. trade tree.

Who were Tim Locastro and Chase De Jong

In the second round of the 2012 MLB Draft, the Blue Jays selected Chase De Jong. In the following draft, the Blue Jays selected Tim Locastro in the 13th round. Neither player made an appearance for the Blue Jays.
De Jong was traded from the organization, having never reached above their “A” level affiliate. He never pitched for the Dodgers either, instead being traded to the Seattle Mariners before the start of the 2017 season.  He made his big league debut that season, authoring a 6.35 ERA and 5.91 FIP across 28.1 innings of work. The 32-year-old hasn’t pitched since 2023, and threw just 181 innings over seven seasons.
Locastro made his big league debut the same season that De Jong did, appearing in three games during the 2017 season where he stole a base. It was the first of 29 consecutive steals to begin a career, an MLB record. The career itself wasn’t particularly great, slashing just .228/.327/.337 with nine home runs across 616 plate appearances over seven seasons. Like De Jong, he retired after the 2023 season.
In the end, trading away their 29th-ranked prospect at the time (according to MLB Pipeline) didn’t end up costing the Blue Jays. And that money was obviously put to good use.

A different International Free agency system

On July 2nd, 2015, the first day of the 2015-16 IFA period, the Blue Jays signed Guerrero Jr. to a bonus of $3.9 million. That was well over their allotted bonus pool of just over $2.324 million. As is the case now, a team could trade for additional bonus pool money back in 2015, exactly what the Jays did, as they acquired just over $1.071 million in signing bonus pool money.
The International Free Agency system nowadays is pretty cut and dry. A team gets an initial bonus pool to begin the season, determined by revenue sharing and also impacted by signing players with a qualifying offer. A team can’t go over that limit. There was no such restriction a decade ago.
Due to going over their allotted bonus pool money, even with the trade, the Blue Jays were limited to signing players in the following period to no more than $300,000. In turn, they had one their best IFA periods in team history.

Limited money, no problem

Alex Anthopoulos was the general manager of the Blue Jays when they signed Guerrero Jr., but he made way for Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro following the 2015 season. While signing Guerrero Jr. was well worth it, it put their new management in a sticky spot.
Nowadays, the Blue Jays’ additions in the international free agency have been bleak, to say the least. It’s been a sore spot for a while, especially when you consider Lázaro Estrada, Victor Arias, Fernando Perez, Daniel Guerra, and Yondrei Rojas were the only players signed via the IFA who spent significant time in the upper-minors last season.
But in 2016, even with the inability to sign a player over $300,000, they knocked it out of the park.
In the back-half of the 2010s, the Blue Jays were a catching factory, and the 2016 IFA was a big reason for it. That period saw them sign both Gabriel Moreno and Alejandro Kirk, as well as middle infielder Otto López and outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Moreno signed to a $25,000 bonus, Kirk to a $30,000 bonus, and López to a bonus of $60,000. What’s better is that these players didn’t have a pre-agreement, Kirk and Moreno were both scouted by the Blue Jays.
As for Gurriel Jr., the Blue Jays waited until after his 23rd birthday to sign the Cuban outfielder, as he was no longer considered an international free agent. That allowed the Blue Jays to sign him to a seven-year deal worth $22 million.
Even with limited bonus pool money, the Jays were able to find players that eventually broke out to help them in this window of contention, even to this day.

How the players panned out

Locastro and De Jong played seven seasons in the big leagues, but never broke out. The same cannot be said about Guerrero Jr., who quickly became a top prospect in baseball. At just 20 years old, the Blue Jays called him up to the big leagues early into the 2019 season.
Since then, he’s gone on to be an All-Star six times, win a Gold Glove (he should have two), is a two-time Silver Slugger, and was the American League Championship Series MVP in 2025. Consistency issues aside, Guerrero Jr. has earned MVP votes four times in his career, finishing as the runner-up in 2021 when he hit a career-best 48 home runs.
Even if the Blue Jays didn’t ace the 2016 international free agency period, or if Locastro or De Jong lived up to their potential, the trade was worth it.
But then you have Kirk. The catcher is a two-time All-Star and one-time Silver Slugger winner. As a prospect, he was known for his bat, but he’s arguably become the best defensive catcher in baseball, and it’s a shame he has yet to win a Gold Glove. He had two below-average seasons in 2023 and 2024, but has slashed .280/.349/.419 with 25 home runs in 819 plate appearances the past two seasons.
Between Kirk, Moreno, and Danny Jansen, the Blue Jays had three everyday catchers. Moreno was eventually traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks, where he’s gone on to live up to the hype. This past season, he slashed .311/.388/.486 with 16 home runs in 549 plate appearances for a 141 wRC+, winning his second Gold Glove.
Moreno was traded alongside Gurriel Jr. The outfielder (who was signed as a shortstop) was the first of these players to reach the big leagues. Over five seasons with the Blue Jays, Gurriel Jr. slashed .285/.329/.468 with 68 home runs in 1,864 plate appearances for a 115 wRC+. Gurriel Jr. had some good seasons with the Diamondbacks as well, before a knee injury derailed his 2025 season.
We’ll get to the ensuing trades in the next section, but the one that got away is López. I was always pretty high on the infielder as he had speed, a superutility profile, and a strong hit tool. He’s found a home with the Miami Marlins, providing Gold Glove-calibre defence in the middle infield and hitting double-digit home runs in the past two seasons, something that I did not see coming. No player finished with more hits than López’ 191 last season.

The following trades

It’s hard to say that trading López to the San Francisco Giants for cash was a mistake. In 2023, his final season in the Blue Jays’ system, López slashed just .258/.313/.343 with two home runs in 346 plate appearances at the Triple-A level. Out of options, as was Santiago Espinal and Ernie Clement, the Jays chose Clement as their utility infielder.
In hindsight, keeping López would’ve been ideal given how he’s broken out with playing time, but coming off the season he had in 2023 and the fact he was DFA’d by the Giants, it’s one that you can’t really fault the front office for.
On December 23rd, 2022, the Blue Jays sent Gurriel Jr. and Moreno to the Diamondbacks for Daulton Varsho. Moreno’s breakout in 2026 makes this trade look poor, but it turned out to be a win-win. In his first season as a full-time big leaguer, Moreno helped the Diamondbacks win the National League pennant.
Yes, Moreno had an offensive season in 2026 that Kirk has never had, but the two players are rather similar and it took Moreno four seasons to become the catcher he is today. The Jays were also in dire need of a left-handed batting outfielder, getting that in Varsho. Is Moreno a better all-around player than Kirk? Yes, but you couldn’t go wrong with either of them.
Varsho’s Blue Jays tenure was marked by inconsistency with the bat, paired with some of the best outfield defence of our generation. He won the American League Gold Glove for centre fielders in 2024, and probably should’ve won in 2023 as well. With the bat, he hit 20 home runs twice, as well as an 18 home run season in 2024.
But like Moreno and Gurriel Jr. helped the Diamondbacks make it to the World Series, Varsho helped the Blue Jays win the American League pennant in 2025.
He was often injured that season, but when healthy, Varsho slugged 20 home runs in 271 plate appearances for a 123 wRC+. Not including 2025, Varsho averaged 553 plate appearances from 2022 until 2026. If he were to keep the pace he was on and reach the 553 plate appearance mark in 2025, Varsho would’ve hit 40 home runs. 
That season alone made this trade a win for the Blue Jays, but add in the fact that Varsho was terrific defensively and Kirk is still a great catcher, and it’s clear that this trade is a win-win.
But the other Varsho trade, where the Blue Jays sent him to the Houston Astros for Spencer Arrighetti, looks like a lose-lose in the immediate aftermath. Varsho struggled with the Astros, slashing .172/.224/.311 with five home runs in 161 plate appearances.
Arrighetti wasn’t much better in his limited outings with the Blue Jays, rocking a 6.35 ERA and 6.85 FIP in 22.2 innings of work. There’s still hope given he won the American League’s Pitcher of the Month in May, but those were some tough outings.
And that’s where this trade tree stands. While not a direct trade tree like the Drew Hutchison one, it’s interesting to see how they managed to get an All-Star calibre bat, then manage to get a few more with limited bonus pool money the following season.
Cynthia Ryley Delaney is a Nation Network writer for Blue Jays Nation, DFOEdmonton, and DFOCalgary. She can be followed on Twitter @CynthiaRDelaney.
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