Blue Jays vs Red Sox 07/26/21 – Odds and MLB Betting Trends

Bettors will have to pick their spot for the Toronto Blue Jays to have one of the peak performances they often produce in Boston, or go with the chalk in a matchup between the division leader and the fourth-place team that seems to meet its match against good competition. The Blue Jays opened as +112 underdogs with the Boston Red Sox as -122 home favorites and a 10.5-run total on the MLB odds for Monday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com (how line movement works).

The Blue Jays are 7-8 as away underdogs against the Red Sox since the start of the 2019 season, with the total going UNDER eight times at sports betting sites. However, they are 5-8 in their last 13 away games against teams which currently have a winning record, with the total going UNDER nine times. The Red Sox are 9-5 in their last 14 home games against teams which currently have a winning record, with the total going UNDER nine times.

The Blue Jays, who have a 49-46 record, are MLB’s third-highest scoring team at 5.17 runs per game. Teoscar Hernández (1.254 OPS since the all-star break), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1.149) and George Springer (1.061) have been Toronto’s best hitters over the last 10 days. Guerrero (1.467 OPS vs. Boston), Bo Bichette (1.164) and Hernández (1.022) have been the team’s best hitters in the season series against the Red Sox.

On the mound, the Blue Jays rank 13th in both starting pitcher ERA (4.00) and reliever ERA (4.03)

The Red Sox lead the AL East with a 61-39 record, and they are MLB’s fourth-highest scoring team at 5.09 runs per game. They are MLB’s fifth-highest scoring team at 5.00 runs per game. Since the all-star break, Rafael Devers (1.224 OPS), Enrique (Kike) Hernández (1.160) and J.D. Martinez (1.061) have been Boston’s hottest hitters. Bobby Dalbec (1.143 vs. Toronto), Martinez (.997) and Hernández (.939) have had the most success against the Blue Jays this season.

The Red Sox pitching staff ranks 20th in starting pitcher ERA (4.38) and seventh in reliever ERA (3.61).

Righthander Thomas Hatch (0-1, 3.07 ERA, 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings in Triple-A) will make his second career MLB start on Monday, while righthander Nick Pivetta (8-4, 4.37 ERA, 10.2 SO/9) will start for the Red Sox. As a reliever, Hatch allowed a .675 OPS in three appearances against Boston last season. Pivetta has a 6.67 ERA in 28.1 career innings against the Blue Jays. The Red Sox, however, are 8-3 in his last 11 home-favorite starts.

Lefthander Robbie Ray (8-5, 3.12 ERA, 11.4 SO/9) is in line to start for the Blue Jays on Tuesday, opposite righthander Garrett Richards (6-5, 4.99 ERA, 7.2 SO/9). Ray has a 6.32 ERA in 15.2 career innings against the Red Sox, but the Blue Jays are 6-5 in his last 11 away starts with the total going UNDER seven times. Richards has a 5.37 ERA in 58.2 career innings against the Blue Jays, but his teams are 6-4 in his last 10 starts against Toronto with the OVER hitting six times.

Lefthander Steven Matz (8-5, 4.34 ERA, 9.2 SO/9) is likely to start on Wednesday, while rookie righthander Tanner Houck (0-2, 2.50 ERA, 11.5 SO/9) is confirmed as Boston’s starter. Matz has a 4.76 ERA in 17 career innings against Boston, while the Blue Jays are 6-4 in his last 10 away starts and the total has gone UNDER in nine of his last 14 starts on the road. Houck, who will be facing the Blue Jays for the first time thanks to a rainout on July 21, has helped the Red Sox go 4-2 in his last six starts with UNDER hitting four times.

Lefthander Hyun Jin Ryu (9-5, 3.44 ERA, 7.3 SO/9) is likely to start on Thursday, while fellow lefty Eduardo Rodríguez (7-5, 5.23 ERA, 10.6 SO/9) will start for Boston. Ryu has a 3.00 ERA over 24 career innings against Boston, and the Blue Jays are 7-1 over his last eight away starts with the OVER hitting five times. Rodríguez, who left his start on July 23 due to migraine symptoms, has a 4.78 ERA in 86.2 career innings against Toronto. However, the Red Sox are 6-0 in his last six home starts against the Blue Jays, and the UNDER has prevailed eight of the 10 times that he has faced Toronto at Fenway Park.

The Blue Jays are home at Rogers Centre for their next three games, hosting the Kansas City Royals.