Phillies vs Blue Jays 05/14/21 – Odds and MLB Betting Trends

The Toronto Blue Jays will carry some notable OVER trends into the start of a 10-game homestand. The Blue Jays are -150 home favorites and the Philadelphia Phillies are +130 underdogs with a 10.5-run total for Friday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com (how the moneyline works).

The Blue Jays are 11-5 in their last 16 games as a home favorite, and the total has gone OVER at betting sites in nine of the last 10 such matchups. They are also 10-5 in their last 15 home games against NL East teams, with the OVER hitting 11 times. The Phillies are 5-10 in their last 15 games as an underdog on the road, with the total going OVER eight times. They are 6-9 in their last 15 games against AL East teams, with a 7-7-1 OVER/UNDER split.

The Phillies, who are 20-18, are averaging 4.03 runs per game and rank 19th out of the 30 MLB teams with a .693 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentages). Catcher J.T. Realmuto is their hottest hitter with a .526 OBP and three extra-base hits over his last seven games. The Phillies have a 4.18 earned-run average that ranks 18th in MLB, while their relief pitching corps ranks 22nd at 4.51.

The Blue Jays, who are 20-16, are averaging 4.92 runs per game and their .716 OPS ranks 11th in MLB. Outfielder Teoscar Hernández, with nine hits and two home runs in his last four games, is Toronto’s hottest hitter. The Blue Jays’ 3.80 team ERA ranks 12th, while they boast the No. 3-ranked bullpen at 2.87.

Lefthander Steven Matz (5-2, 4.86 ERA, 9.0 strikeouts per nine innings) will start on Friday opposite righthander Vince Velasquez (1-0, 4.18 ERA, 11.4 SO/9). Matz has struggled over his last few starts, and the ex-New York Met’s 6.10 ERA over 48.2 career innings against the Phillies is his poorest against any NL East team. Matz’s teams are 11-5 in his last 16 home-favorite starts and the total has gone OVER only five times. The Phillies are 4-12 in Velasquez’s last 16 away-underdog starts with the OVER hitting 11 times. Velasquez is 2-0 with a 3.94 ERA in 16 career innings against Toronto, but has allowed four home runs.

The Blue Jays have not listed their starting pitcher for Saturday, although lefty Anthony Kay (0-2, 10.24 ERA, 9.3 SO/9) might be used as an opener or bulk pitcher. The Phillies will start righthander Aaron Nola (3-2, 3.59 ERA, 10.0 SO/9). The Blue Jays are 1-3 in Kay’s last four starts. Nola has a 6.14 ERA over 14.2 career innings against the Blue Jays, and Philadelphia is 4-11 in his last 15 away starts with a 7-7-1 split on the OVER/UNDER.

Lefthander Robbie Ray (1-1, 3.38 ERA, 10.1 SO/9) will start on Sunday opposite Phillies  righthander Chase Anderson (2-3, 5.23 ERA, 7.5 SO/9), who pitched for Toronto in 2020. Ray has a 5.51 ERA in 32.2 innings against Philadelphia, while his teams are 11-4 in his last 15 starts at home with the OVER hitting eight times. Anderson, who only has one career start against Toronto, has helped his teams go 4-3 over his last seven starts on the road with the OVER hitting four times.

The Blue Jays are slated to have Monday off before welcoming the Boston Red Sox to TD Park in Dunedin, Fla., for a three-game series.