The Blue Jays are in a similar place to where they were in 2025 after playing 27 games. The Jays have a 12-15 record as of April 26 and had a 13-15 record on April 27 last year. Their 2026 season isn’t off to a strong start, but the 2025 Blue Jays began turning things around starting in May, if it’s any consolation. There could be a chance for the 2026 Blue Jays to replicate this storyline if they can get key players back from the injured list and fire on all cylinders, little by little.

The bad news is that May isn’t going to be the easiest part of the schedule, with many games against division rivals that can really impact the standings.

Here are the three most important match-ups for Toronto this upcoming month.

The Tampa Bay Rays have always had a way in any series against the Blue Jays, especially if they are playing down at Tropicana Field. Thankfully, the Blue Jays found a way to sweep Tampa at the end of last September, but the Rays are putting together a much better season this year than last. Tropicana Field has been a house of horror for the Blue Jays for a long time, and they’ve posted 150-202 between 2005 and 2024.

This would be a good year to slowly break that curse, but there are many obstacles they have to overcome. Junior Caminero has always been a power threat, and so are Jonathan Aranda and Yandy Diaz. Drew Rasmussen has been a bona fide face, and while Shane McClanahan hasn’t had the best start yet, he will find his form soon. Underestimating the Rays is a risky business, especially for the Blue Jays. Winning this away series will help Toronto set the tone for how the rest of the month unfolds.

This is the first match-up between the New York Yankees and the Blue Jays since the ALDS last year. The problem is that the Yankees are a much more cohesive team this time around.

Their aces, Max Fried and Cam Schlittler, have been scarily consistent, and Cody Bellinger, Jazz Chisholm, Aaron Judge, Ben Rice and Giancarlo Stanton can easily break open the game any time in New York’s favour. Gerrit Cole is also working his way back, making things potentially even more powerful in the rotation.

The Blue Jays didn’t perform well against the Yankees initially last year until they swept the Yankees in a four-game series to take the division lead back in early July. This year, that crucial four-game series happens much earlier than the Blue Jays would like it. But if they want a shot at denting the Yankees’ division lead, this series would be the time to strike. The hope is that the Blue Jays would have gotten a few players back from injuries by then, but if they don’t, they still have to find ways to at least split this series.

The Baltimore Orioles aren’t the bottom-of-the-barrel team anymore. Their surprising decline last year was mostly due to untimely injuries and weak starting pitching, and they have fixed those issues for the most part this season, unfortunately for the Blue Jays.

The Orioles can eye a division win if their offence and pitching can live up to the expectations. So far, they are ranking third in the AL East and are three games ahead of the Blue Jays. Veteran first baseman Pete Alonso is the clubhouse leader, and there are plenty of young, powerful hitters like Samuel Basallo, Jeremiah Jackson, Coby Mayo, and Adley Rutschman trending right behind him. Colton Cowser and Gunnar Henderson aren’t performing up to their levels yet, but will most likely heat up in a few weeks, if not months. Then there are other seasoned hitters like Tyler O’Neill and Taylor Ward, who can provide reliable offensive production.

On the pitching side, the ERAs might look ugly, but Shane Baz and Trevor Rogers are still great pitchers who can dominate on the mound. The Orioles’ bullpen doesn’t look like a lost cause either. Last season, Toronto went 7-6 against Baltimore, barely eking out a winning record. Ever since the Orioles’ youth movement began in 2022, they have been a thorn in the Blue Jays’ side.

This will be an intense four-game series in Camden Yards, where Toronto has to either win or split the series to make up ground in the AL East.

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